At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[SeattleUte]

Yeah I don’t think Americans are prepared for the strategy of “Let’s just relax and let it burn through quickly so we get herd immunity as soon as possible.”

That may seem OK in theory to not screw with the economy as much — but what that looks like in reality when people come to the hospital is “Oh you’re totally healthy but over 65? We can’t afford to give you a ventilator. Let’s just park you in this spot in the hallway and give you morphine while you suffocate.”

Americans are not ready for that culturally or psychological. Whatever it takes to slow this down maximally is the right approach even if the economic consequences are in the long run equally disastrous.

I think you're living in a silo.

https://mashable.com/article/people-bars-coronavirus-social-distancing/

With the lack of data to support the current measures, and the failure to provide any prospect or plan for resolution, Americans aren't going to put up with this for long. It's not the bars. Once especially those not at risk start losing their jobs, there will be a backlash.

To some of us the economy is not an immediate concern. In my niche, if anything, economic distress can lead to more work. Other jobs are as well quite insulated, such as, for example, a cardiologist, a GS-17, or a college professor. Not so for most Americans. They can't be so blithe about economic catastrophe. If you can't feed your family, it's different.

[SeattleUte]

How confident are you of the accuracy of the Chinese numbers?

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The Chines numbers are joke. Only a fool would believe them about anything.

[myboynoah]

How confident are you of the accuracy of the Chinese numbers?

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I look askance at them, but they have WHO in their business, so I trust the general trends.

If China is under reporting, then we should be even more alarmed.

[falafel]

NEvada schools now closed for 4 weeks (3 weeks plus spring break).

Wynn/Encore closed for 2 weeks. MGM properties will close starting this Tuesday.

[BigPiney]

For those stuck at home. Time to get cultured. Free operas: https://www.metopera.org/about/press...virus-closure/

[SeattleUte]

I look askance at them, but they have WHO in their business, so I trust the general trends.

If China is under reporting, then we should be even more alarmed.

China is probably underreporting the numbers infected, which would mean, all things being equal, that it's overreporting the death rate. I read that the sensitivity of China's tests were such that it had 30-40 percent false negatives. Also, there are millions and millions who were never tested. People live on top of each other there. Wuhan has 11 million people and is only the ninth biggest city in China. Our biggest is New York, 8.6 million. But they may be underreporting the death rate too. Still, they probably are underreporting the infection rate by a zillion.

Bottom line, they are liars because they're Communists. China caused this whole thing because their system is evil and doesn't work so people are eating bats. And truth is simply not a value there; the purpose of media, even data, is only propaganda.

[Uncle Ted]

I look askance at them, but they have WHO in their business, so I trust the general trends.

If China is under reporting, then we should be even more alarmed.

They claimed to have closed their temporary hospitals: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9402631.html

Of course, didn't one of them fall down?

[Uncle Ted]

Korea made a similar recommendation several weeks ago. Korea has not had to mandate "social distancing" behaviors. People have followed these recommendations for the most part.

Yeah, for the most part... up until patient #31:

Embedded Tweet

I am guessing s/he is a Boomer or Millennial.

[Uncle Ted]

We will engineer the sh*t out of this...

Embedded Tweet

[Jeff Lebowski]

I think you're living in a silo.

https://mashable.com/article/people-bars-coronavirus-social-distancing/

With the lack of data to support the current measures, and the failure to provide any prospect or plan for resolution, Americans aren't going to put up with this for long. It's not the bars. Once especially those not at risk start losing their jobs, there will be a backlash.

To some of us the economy is not an immediate concern. In my niche, if anything, economic distress can lead to more work. Other jobs are as well quite insulated, such as, for example, a cardiologist, a GS-17, or a college professor. Not so for most Americans. They can't be so blithe about economic catastrophe. If you can't feed your family, it's different.

How many people should we be willing to sacrifice in order to save the economy? Give us a number please.

[myboynoah]

China is probably underreporting the numbers infected, which would mean, all things being equal, that it's overreporting the death rate. I read that the sensitivity of China's tests were such that it had 30-40 percent false negatives. Also, there are millions and millions who were never tested. People live on top of each other there. Wuhan has 11 million people and is only the ninth biggest city in China. Our biggest is New York, 8.6 million. But they may be underreporting the death rate too. Still, they probably are underreporting the infection rate by a zillion.

Bottom line, they are liars because they're Communists. China caused this whole thing because their system is evil and doesn't work so people are eating bats. And truth is simply not a value there; the purpose of media, even data, is only propaganda.

I really don't know what you are trying to say here.

I noted that "rest of the world" cases and deaths have now eclipsed those in China. So, if China is under reporting, then "rest of the world" will eclipse China sometime this week. Arguing Chinese numbers is silly. Europe is on fire, and the U.S. is rising quickly despite the dearth of testing. You may well get to see your "herd immunity" experiment play out due to Trumps gross incompetence.

As I've always said, if you are looking for the best morbidity rate number, look at Korea. Korea has done the most testing, tracing, and tracking per capita of any place in the world. It has been fully transparent, almost too transparent as it publishes the past daily routes of people that have tested positive. That rate is currently at .9 percent, and moving upward as the number of new cases is declining significantly and there are over 7,000 people still considered infected.

So give that some thought. We can expect that at least 1 percent of everyone infected in the U.S. will die. U.S. population is 330 million. How many losses are too many before dramatic action is taken? What impact will that have on the economy (people out sick, people dying, people taking care of the sick, etc.)? What is your plan?

If you wait, it will only get worse, and even more dramatic action will be necessary.

I sincerely hope I am wrong. Please do some social distancing.

[myboynoah]

Yeah, for the most part... up until patient #31:

Embedded Tweet

I am guessing s/he is a Boomer or Millennial.

I was referring to after patient 31 was so irresponsible. She alone led to more than 7,000 infections.

[Clark Addison]

How many people should we be willing to sacrifice in order to save the economy? Give us a number please.

Before I answer, is one of those people me?

[SeattleUte]

I really don't know what you are trying to say here.

I noted that "rest of the world" cases and deaths have now eclipsed those in China. So, if China is under reporting, then "rest of the world" will eclipse China sometime this week. It's a silly argument. Europe is on fire, and the U.S. is rising quickly despite the dearth of testing. You may well get to see your "herd immunity" experiment play out due to Trumps gross incompetence.

As I've always said, if you are looking for the best morbidity rate number, look at Korea. Korea has done the most testing, tracing, and tracking per capita of any place in the world. It has been fully transparent, almost too transparent as it publishes the past daily routes of people that have tested positive. That rate is currently at .9 percent, and moving upward as the number of new cases is declining significantly and there are over 7,000 people still considered infected.

So give that some thought. We can expect that at least 1 percent of everyone infected in the U.S. will die. U.S. population is 330 million. How many losses are too many before dramatic action is taken? What impact will that have on the economy (people out sick, people dying, people taking care of the sick, etc.)? What is your plan?

If you wait, it will only get worse, and even more dramatic action will be necessary.

I sincerely hope I am wrong. Please do some social distancing.

Me social distancing? Of course. I'm over 60 and following my own program. I've even got teenaged children. I'm no hypocrite, and I don't want this disease, that's for sure. I know the disease is real. My son went to dungeons and dragons Friday night, so I'm generally staying minimum six feet away from him. I figure I'll be safer at work, which will be like a mausoleum, so I'm going there tomorrow.

The question isn't how many will die in the US so much as how much difference will all this make in that number while ruining the economy. Given the premise of this shutdown, I don't see how it will save any lives. UK believes that their approach will save lives. I don't know about that. But I'm not convinced our approach will save any. Maybe spread it out. But after the bars open again, etc., and we've all been isolated, how can there not be a spike? Or, will everything be shut down until there's a vaccine. The problem is nobody is saying when or how it all ends.

I'd be interested to know the average age of mortality in Italy recorded as from this disease compared to the average lifespan with no Covid-19.

[Uncle Ted]

For all you folks saying we are over-reacting - Really good article comparing the coronavirus to the season flu:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-between-a-1-and-0-1-fatality-rate-is-huge/

What does “ten times more lethal” mean? — the math is simple. If 40 million Americans get the seasonal flu, a 0.1 percent fatality rate means 40,000 deaths. If 40 million Americans get the new coronavirus, a 1 percent fatality rate means 400,000 deaths.


So the difference between a 0.1 percent and a 1.0 percent fatality rate could be 360,000 dead Americans.

It looks like it is maybe 5x more lethal than the flu based on the small sampling of the Diamond Princess cruise ship:

Cruise ship outbreak helps pin down how deadly the new coronavirus is
Outcomes suggest that, in the real world, about 0.5 percent of COVID-19 infections in China end in death
[...]
Enter the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Quarantined at sea off Japan after a passenger tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the ship became a natural data lab where nearly everyone was tested and few cases of infection were missed.


Infections and deaths onboard suggest that the disease’s true fatality ratio in China is about 0.5 percent, though that number may vary from place to place, researchers report March 9 in a paper posted at MedRxiv.org.


That 0.5 percent is far less than the 3.4 percent of confirmed cases that end in death cited by the World Health Organization, but troubling nonetheless.
[...]

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate

Of course, that sampling may be skewed by all the overweight and over drinking cruise ship boomers... they are really the only people that go on those cruises.