At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[LVAllen]

Look, just because you read a popular history published 16 years ago doesn't make you an expert. So don't talk at me about it. For whatever reason--the book didn't talk about it or you missed it or forgot about it--you'd never heard that it's a well-recognized hypothesis that secondary bacterial infection is what juiced that epidemic beyond seasonal flu proportions and conditions incident to WWI, etc exacerbated that. You snorted and asked for a cite and I gave you several from unimpeachable sources without much digging. If there's a lesson from this event, it's that secondary factors like age, underlying health, unhealthy habits and environment are decisive.

Speaking of secondary factors, analysis of the deaths in China show that hypertension and cardiovascular disease are strongly linked with the deaths. Half the deaths also had hypertension.

Good thing those aren't problems in the US.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Look, just because you read a popular history published 16 years ago doesn't make you an expert. So don't talk at me about it. For whatever reason--the book didn't talk about it or you missed it or forgot about it--you'd never heard that it's a well-recognized hypothesis that secondary bacterial infection is what juiced that epidemic beyond seasonal flu proportions and conditions incident to WWI, the industrial revolution, etc exacerbated that. You snorted and asked for a cite and I gave you several from unimpeachable sources without much digging. If there's a lesson form this event, it's that secondary factors like age, underlying health, unhealthy habits and environment are decisive.

Good grief. Why are you so grumpy? I am not claiming to be a medical expert - just sharing my perspective. Why do you assume that this book is the only thing I have read?

I didn't intend my response to sound hostile. For the record, I agree that modern antibiotics will make a huge difference this time around in terms of fatality.

[BigPiney]

SU is a dumbass, ignore him.

[myboynoah]

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[Jeff Lebowski]

For all you folks saying we are over-reacting - Really good article comparing the coronavirus to the season flu:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-between-a-1-and-0-1-fatality-rate-is-huge/

What does “ten times more lethal” mean? — the math is simple. If 40 million Americans get the seasonal flu, a 0.1 percent fatality rate means 40,000 deaths. If 40 million Americans get the new coronavirus, a 1 percent fatality rate means 400,000 deaths.

So the difference between a 0.1 percent and a 1.0 percent fatality rate could be 360,000 dead Americans.

Those who suggest that the coronavirus presents no greater threat than does the seasonal flu need to answer some questions:

Why are Italian hospitals being overrun with Covid-19 patients, and why doesn’t that happen with the seasonal flu? Why can’t that happen here?
Why are the Iranians digging mass graves that are visible from outer space?
Why did Communist China — a regime that cares much more about national strength than about human life — shut down factories and bring its economy to the brink of recession in an effort to contain the spread of the virus?
Why did Japan announce a month-long closure of all schools two weeks ago, when there were only four coronavirus deaths in the entire country?
Are we supposed to believe that the Japanese, South Koreans, and Chinese are panicky idiots who don’t understand math and science?
We don’t have to rely on (positive!) national stereotypes to grasp the size of the threat, of course.

We Americans can do the elementary math ourselves. If tens of millions of Americans get a disease with a 1 percent fatality rate, it would be a national catastrophe.

[CardiacCoug]

For all you folks saying we are over-reacting - Really good article comparing the coronavirus to the season flu:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...-rate-is-huge/

Good public health is like a good offensive line in football.

When public health does its job it never gets any credit.

If 2 months from now everybody says it was a massive overreaction that will mean the public health measures were perfect and immensely life-saving. Let’s hope for that.

[CardiacCoug]

Now I agree with SU that the negative economic impacts of this thing globally will be immense and impossible to measure.

How on earth do you figure out how many kids in places like the Philippines are dying because the cruise industry is closed down (while Dad was working on a cruise ship and sending all the money home)?

It’s a very complex thing but I definitely agree with the church and school closures. We need to get ahead of this.

[myboynoah]

Good public health is like a good offensive line in football.

When public health does its job it never gets any credit.

If 2 months from now everybody says it was a massive overreaction that will mean the public health measures were perfect and immensely life-saving. Let’s hope for that.

Agreed.

All the expererience we've seen so far leads to robust testing, contact tracing, tracking the infected, and social distancing. Experts across the globe advocate for this and policymakers are implementing this strategy to good effect.

On the other side of the arguement we have Devin Nunez and some Fox news people, crazy cospiracy nuts across the South claiming that the "fake news" media is hyping this in order to tank the economy so that Trump isn't reelected, and that screaming doctor who gets quoted by the Washington Times. We are still waiting for a reasonable propostion based on science to the contrary. Instead we get the loud cry that this is all an over-reaction.

Korea reported only 76 new cases today, the first time in 23 days it dipped below 100. This is in the face of a major outbreak just three days ago in a Seoul call center. Health authorities jumped on that with testing and contact tracing. You can't react if you don't know where it is.

[beefytee]

Good public health is like a good offensive line in football.

When public health does its job it never gets any credit.

If 2 months from now everybody says it was a massive overreaction that will mean the public health measures were perfect and immensely life-saving. Let’s hope for that.

Let's hope. I put something similar on Facebook. Everybody talks about how anticlimactic Y2K was which is great, because had we not done anything Y2K would have been a disaster.

I've been meaning to read Black Swan. I've heard it is a really good book. Basically talk about how we dismiss improbable high impact events.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/081297381X..._2aPBEbKZZT8AB

[SeattleUte]

Speaking of secondary factors, analysis of the deaths in China show that hypertension and cardiovascular disease are strongly linked with the deaths. Half the deaths also had hypertension.

Good thing those aren't problems in the US.

Anyone who is vulnerable--you know who you are--take care of yourself. Take precautions; be assiduous, and ask your loved ones to do so as well. We are going to beat this with self-reliance and personal accountability, even after there's a vaccine. The government won't change that by destroying the world's economies.

[SeattleUte]

Now I agree with SU that the negative economic impacts of this thing globally will be immense and impossible to measure.

How on earth do you figure out how many kids in places like the Philippines are dying because the cruise industry is closed down (while Dad was working on a cruise ship and sending all the money home)?

It’s a very complex thing but I definitely agree with the church and school closures. We need to get ahead of this.

The suffering and even death on a large scale won't be limited to poor countries if there's a deep recession or depression because of this. It will be felt across all classes and demographics and all nations. Economic strength is like breathing. People tend to take it for granted while it's working well, until it's cut off.

[frank ryan]

Let's hope. I put something similar on Facebook. Everybody talks about how anticlimactic Y2K was which is great, because had we not done anything Y2K would have been a disaster.

I've been meaning to read Black Swan. I've heard it is a really good book. Basically talk about how we dismiss improbable high impact events.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/081297381X..._2aPBEbKZZT8AB

I've read his book, Antifragile, and it was ok. I felt like it was a bit overhyped. So tell me what you think if you do end up reading it.

[SeattleUte]

For all you folks saying we are over-reacting - Really good article comparing the coronavirus to the season flu:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...-rate-is-huge/

For those not vulnerable, it is more like the seasonal flu. Because of a lack of vaccines and the fact this is novel and there's no wall of immunity, this is substantially more deadly than the seasonal for those who are vulnerable. Those countries did not take precautions at a private level because it hit them first. They are also poorer, and have many of the same conditions that may have led or contributed to the 1918 flu death rate.

We simply can't afford to indefinitely bring our economy to a halt. People will start seeing that soon enough as they lose their paychecks. It's like taking a fish out of water.

[Uncle Ted]

Nobody in Utah can get a test either. The Trib's cover story is that none of the hotlines work and no one is getting a test, even if you are presenting symptoms. You have to actually name a current diagnosed person that you have come into contact with and even then, area hospitals are doing everything they can to deny the test. They probably dont have the testing capability. My man Mitt complained back on Thursday that Utah has only performed 135 tests in the entire state. 58 or about 40% of the tests were performed on Jazz players and the Jazz organization.

Y'all need to be rioting... burn the Vivint Smart Home Arena down!

Our stake president (and first counselor) are ER Physicians at the hospital that is doing the testing, and my husband has a meeting with him right now. I've noticed that different stakes are handling this markedly different, as my husband was granted the authority to bless and pass the sacrament today at home, and friends of ours were specifically told NOT to have sacrament in their family meetings.

Didn't the church say the members should have the sacrament at least once a month? I wonder how these other stakes plan on doing it. I suggested that we just have drive thru sacrament for those without a priesthood member in their home.

[LVAllen]

Y'all need to be rioting... burn the Vivint Smart Home Arena down!



Didn't the church say the members should have the sacrament at least once a month? I wonder how these other stakes plan on doing it. I suggested that we just have drive thru sacrament for those without a priesthood member in their home.

No. The church asked that the bishops consult with the stake presidents to figure out how to provide the members the sacrament at least once a month. Basically, before, we would home deliver the sacrament to shutins. Now the whole ward will be a shutin, so we're probably going to need to divide the members up on a weekly basis.

EDIT: Misread your post.