At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Just chatted with my doctor son. I asked him if he knew any health professionals or epidemiologists who were promoting a herd immunity strategy. He said no - except for that one agency in the UK, but they have not explained their reasoning or analysis and now they are backpedaling. Then I asked him about trying to seal off our vulnerable population while the rest of us carry on. He said that is completely unrealistic - if it spreads unchecked in the general population it will be impossible to protect the vulnerable among us.

[Uncle Ted]

For all you folks saying we are over-reacting - Really good article comparing the coronavirus to the season flu:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-vs-the-flu-the-difference-between-a-1-and-0-1-fatality-rate-is-huge/

What does “ten times more lethal” mean? — the math is simple. If 40 million Americans get the seasonal flu, a 0.1 percent fatality rate means 40,000 deaths. If 40 million Americans get the new coronavirus, a 1 percent fatality rate means 400,000 deaths.


So the difference between a 0.1 percent and a 1.0 percent fatality rate could be 360,000 dead Americans.

Does anyone even have a clue on how many people have or have had it? For example, the governor of Ohio said that 1% of the state was infected:

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Of course, they only have 36 confirmed cases and I haven't heard if anyone has died. In any case, the mortality rate in Ohio seems pretty low so far given that well over 100,000 people have been infected according the numbers their Gov and their health department are giving.

The best quote comes from your former governor:

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Where is Mike Leavitt these days? We need him.

[Walter Sobchak]

Just chatted with my doctor son. I asked him if he knew any health professionals or epidemiologists who were promoting a herd immunity strategy. He said no - except for that one agency in the UK, but they have not explained their reasoning or analysis and now they are backpedaling. Then I asked him about trying to seal off our vulnerable population while the rest of us carry on. He said that is completely unrealistic - if it spreads unchecked in the general population it will be impossible to protect the vulnerable among us.

Well, there you go: "I know a nurse/doctor and he/she said... this."

Case closed.

Mods please lock this thread.

[Uncle Ted]

Just chatted with my doctor son. I asked him if he knew any health professionals or epidemiologists who were promoting a herd immunity strategy. He said no - except for that one agency in the UK, but they have not explained their reasoning or analysis and now they are backpedaling. Then I asked him about trying to seal off our vulnerable population while the rest of us carry on. He said that is completely unrealistic - if it spreads unchecked in the general population it will be impossible to protect the vulnerable among us.

Yeah, I think the herd immunity strategy will only work in places like London were there is not a chance in hell they will be able to keep folks out of the pubs, etc. and from mingling. In places like that there is really no other option.

I saw this interesting article saying that some experts are thinking things are slowing down... Well, at least in China:

Corona Is Slowing Down, Humanity Will Survive, Says Biophysicist Michael Levitt

Nobel laureate Michael Levitt, an American-British-Israeli biophysicist who teaches structural biology at Stanford University and spends much of his time in Tel Aviv, unexpectedly became a household name in China, offering the public reassurance during the peak of the country’s coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. Levitt did not discover a treatment or a cure, just did what he does best: crunched the numbers. The statistics led him to the conclusion that, contrary to the grim forecasts being branded about, the spread of the virus will come to a halt.

[...]
The Diamond Princess was the worst case scenario, according to Levitt. “If you compare the ship to a country—we are talking 250,000 people crowded into one square kilometer, which is horribly crowded. It is four times the crowding in Hong Kong. It is as if the entire Isaeli population was crammed into 30 square kilometers.” Furthermore, he said, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system and a communal dining room. “Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu.”

As with the flu, most of those dying as a result of coronavirus are over 70 years old, Levitt said. “It is a known fact that the flu mostly kills the elderly—around three-quarters of flu mortalities are people over 65.” To put things in proportion: “there are years when flu is raging, like in the U.S. in 2017, when there were three times the regular number of mortalities. And still, we did not panic. That is my message: you need to think of corona like a severe flu. It is four to eight times as strong as a common flu, and yet, most people will remain healthy and humanity will survive.”
[...]

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html

Wait... Gov. Mike Leavitt. Is that you?

[CardiacCoug]

Yeah I don’t think Americans are prepared for the strategy of “Let’s just relax and let it burn through quickly so we get herd immunity as soon as possible.”

That may seem OK in theory to not screw with the economy as much — but what that looks like in reality when people come to the hospital is “Oh you’re totally healthy but over 65? We can’t afford to give you a ventilator. Let’s just park you in this spot in the hallway and give you morphine while you suffocate.”

Americans are not ready for that culturally or psychological. Whatever it takes to slow this down maximally is the right approach even if the economic consequences are in the long run equally disastrous.

[Uncle Ted]

Yeah I don’t think Americans are prepared for the strategy of “Let’s just relax and let it burn through quickly so we get herd immunity as soon as possible.”

That may seem OK in theory to not screw with the economy as much — but what that looks like in reality when people come to the hospital is “Oh you’re totally healthy but over 65? We can’t afford to give you a ventilator. Let’s just park you in this spot in the hallway and give you morphine while you suffocate.”

Americans are not ready for that culturally or psychological. Whatever it takes to slow this down maximally is the right approach even if the economic consequences are in the long run equally disastrous.

Yeah, we just need to engineer the sh*t out of the shortage of ventilators... it is not that hard of a problem people. For example, up to four people can share a single ventilator. That has already been shown: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/16885402/ See, we already multiplied the number of ventilators by 4.

And then there is the open source ventilator: https://hackaday.com/2020/03/12/ulti...ce-ventilator/ Time to break out the 3D printers. We can do this!

[myboynoah]

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[myboynoah]

Yeah I don’t think Americans are prepared for the strategy of “Let’s just relax and let it burn through quickly so we get herd immunity as soon as possible.”

That may seem OK in theory to not screw with the economy as much — but what that looks like in reality when people come to the hospital is “Oh you’re totally healthy but over 65? We can’t afford to give you a ventilator. Let’s just park you in this spot in the hallway and give you morphine while you suffocate.”

Americans are not ready for that culturally or psychological. Whatever it takes to slow this down maximally is the right approach even if the economic consequences are in the long run equally disastrous.

So true. What is the reasonable trade off of dead people so that a restaurant can stay open or cruise ships can continue to sail?

Some parts of the economy will take big temporary hits (tourism, hospitality, etc.). Some factories may close, but others will remain open. That will have downstream effects. But it doesn't mean the economy will come to a halt. Stores will remain open, construction will continue, etc. It will be a time for the Government to step in with measures to address this (such as paid sick leave, assistance to SMEs and critical industries, etc.).

But once we get to the other side, we will go back to work and life. So better to move as quickly as possible to understand where we stand and act, so that we get to the other side as soon as possible.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Excellent set of graphics to put all the known pandemics in perspective:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

[myboynoah]

This is a problem. I don't advocate for testing everyone who wants a test, but the current guidelines are too strict to get a complete picture of the state of the current infection in the U.S.

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[myboynoah]

Korea made a similar recommendation several weeks ago. Korea has not had to mandate "social distancing" behaviors. People have followed these recommendations for the most part.

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[Bo Diddley]

Excellent set of graphics to put all the known pandemics in perspective:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/

It would be interesting to see a similar graphic with the economic costs associated with the pandemics.

[myboynoah]

Infections outside China have now surpassed those inside China, as have deaths.

[Uncle Ted]

Korea made a similar recommendation several weeks ago. Korea has not had to mandate "social distancing" behaviors. People have followed these recommendations for the most part.

Here, we can blame the dumb Millennials and Boomers...

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What the hell is wrong with you people?

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[Omaha 680]

Infections outside China have now surpassed those inside China, as have deaths.

How confident are you of the accuracy of the Chinese numbers?

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