At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[Uncle Ted]

Still there, but our trip for May/June is looking mighty iffy. I'm curious how everyone else here is faring given today's nosedive. Unfortunately, a close friend who's not a lot younger than I am has always maintained a far riskier portfolio, and margin calls today have nearly wiped him out. He's seriously despondent.

My broker, who happens to be Italian, seems like he is suffering from PTSD. I think he was heavy into stocks on his personal investments not to mention trying to deal with his mother being at ground zero in Italy and all his clients calling. I have been trying to send him positive news articles to keep up his spirits.

I moved out of a lot of stocks about 4-5 months ago against my broker's advice because I thought this bull run couldn't last for forever, keeping a lot of it in cash. I am about to go bargain shopping now. I do still have stock holdings that are underwater but I am thinking that I should sell and take the losses on some of those just to offset future gains. Who knows, Bernie may be president and want to raise capital gains to like 50%.

[myboynoah]

On Fox News, suddenly a very different tune about the coronavirus

[Uncle Ted]

Canada... Build the wall!

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I wonder if they are going to make it twice as high.

[SeattleUte]

Still there, but our trip for May/June is looking mighty iffy. I'm curious how everyone else here is faring given today's nosedive. Unfortunately, a close friend who's not a lot younger than I am has always maintained a far riskier portfolio, and margin calls today have nearly wiped him out. He's seriously despondent.

I learned my lesson during the tech bubble. Remember JDSU going from like 150 a share to 3 in about two days? Since then, I don’t pick stocks anymore, nor manage my own portfolio except to allocate among funds every once in a great while, and I only invest in funds. We’re as diversified as can be, but weighted toward equities. We’ll be okay. I feel bad for your friend. I’m sure there’s been a lot of grief.

[SeattleUte]

My broker, who happens to be Italian, seems like he is suffering from PTSD. I think he was heavy into stocks on his personal investments not to mention trying to deal with his mother being at ground zero in Italy and all his clients calling. I have been trying to send him positive news articles to keep up his spirits.

I moved out of a lot of stocks about 4-5 months ago against my broker's advice because I thought this bull run couldn't last for forever, keeping a lot of it in cash. I am about to go bargain shopping now. I do still have stock holdings that are underwater but I am thinking that I should sell and take the losses on some of those just to offset future gains. Who knows, Bernie may be president and want to raise capital gains to like 50%.

Ted, long term, this doesn’t work. You got lucky this time. Most of the stock market’s gains and losses occur in bursts during narrow spans of time. And I don’t know how you can pick stocks unless it’s your full-time job. I’m glad you’re in mostly cash, because in this market you can get murdered owning a few stocks and trying to time the highs and lows.

[myboynoah]

I fear the U.S. will be more like China (or even worse) than like Korea. I hope it doesn't resemble Italy, Spain, and France Given the late start, it will likely at take at least two weeks to get an idea of the true number of infected.

How long will social distancing for coronavirus have to last? Depends on these factors.

“It depends if a week from now, we look like Italy or South Korea,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

It took China roughly two months from the beginning of its outbreak — and a month from the time the gravity of the situation was understood — for the country to reach its peak. And it took South Korea roughly half a month.

It is impossible, however, to say when that peak will arrive in the United States for many reasons — chief among them the fact that we don’t yet know the true number of cases because of how limited testing remains in America.

The U.S. situation, one epidemiologist said, is the equivalent of someone asking an exterminator what it will take to get rid of rats in a basement they’ve been too afraid to enter for weeks. You have to turn the lights on and examine the droppings first to figure out the scope of the problem. And the nation’s response in the absence of that knowledge has been sluggish compared with that of other countries.

[tooblue]

The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warn...c-2b0145881993

[Sleeping in EQ]

I ask men dressed in black to forcibly take your money and give it to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fast offering collection is getting a little aggressive.

[SeattleUte]

The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%.

The chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

Note these are the estimated rates for symptomatic people.

[jay santos]

Why are people saying anything like "most will be infected" when China has 80K total cases and appears to have virtually eradicated the disease? About 1,000 total new cases over the past two weeks.

[myboynoah]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/...ate-estimates/

Note these are the estimated rates for symptomatic people.

Chinese data. Can we trust it?

[myboynoah]

Why are people saying anything like "most will be infected" when China has 80K total cases and appears to have virtually eradicated the disease? About 1,000 total new cases over the past two weeks.

You really haven't been paying attention, have you.

[jay santos]

You really haven't been paying attention, have you.

Thus the question.

[tooblue]

Thus the question.

[beefytee]

Here's a condensed answer for you Jay.

China started forced isolation earlier than places in the US suggested shutting down services (at that stage in their countries outbreak). With the exponential spread of the virus everyday makes a huge difference in the spread. The one example I saw was that shutting everything down one day earlier would reduced infections by 40%.