At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[SeattleUte]

How many people should we be willing to sacrifice in order to save the economy? Give us a number please.

I don't know at all that this will save any lives. That's the point. I just read a summary of today's Goldman Sachs call that said it won't. Here is a part of it.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

[SeattleUte]

How many people should we be willing to sacrifice in order to save the economy? Give us a number please.

There is a good faith debate about how to address this with a lot of things to consider, including economic devastation and the lives that will impact and cost. Have you thought about that? I don't appreciate your effort to shame in this way with your simple-minded binary formulation.

[SeattleUte]

Before I answer, is one of those people me?

No need to answer. It's an idiotic question, like do you masturbate? He's used to asking such inane questions.

[SeattleUte]

Governor Inslee always wanted to be a dictator. He got his wish.

https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/inslee-statement-statewide-shutdown-restaurants-bars-and-limits-size-gatherings-expanded

[myboynoah]

Me social distancing? Of course. I'm over 60 and following my own program. I've even got teenaged children. I'm no hypocrite, and I don't want this disease, that's for sure. I know the disease is real. My son went to dungeons and dragons Friday night, so I'm generally staying minimum six feet away from him. I figure I'll be safer at work, which will be like a mausoleum, so I'm going there tomorrow.

The question isn't how many will die in the US so much as how much difference will all this make in that number while ruining the economy. Given the premise of this shutdown, I don't see how it will save any lives. UK believes that their approach will save lives. I don't know about that. But I'm not convinced our approach will save any. Maybe spread it out. But after the bars open again, etc., and we've all been isolated, how can there not be a spike? Or, will everything be shut down until there's a vaccine. The problem is nobody is saying when or how it all ends.

I'd be interested to know the average age of mortality in Italy recorded as from this disease compared to the average lifespan with no Covid-19.

Agreed. We don't know. China and maybe Korea will start to come back on online, so'll we'll be able to learn from that experience.

I appreciate that your are social distancing from your son who isn't. But experts have already said that approach is ineffective overall.

[Clark Addison]

Me social distancing? Of course. I'm over 60 and following my own program. I've even got teenaged children. I'm no hypocrite, and I don't want this disease, that's for sure. I know the disease is real. My son went to dungeons and dragons Friday night, so I'm generally staying minimum six feet away from him. I figure I'll be safer at work, which will be like a mausoleum, so I'm going there tomorrow.

The question isn't how many will die in the US so much as how much difference will all this make in that number while ruining the economy. Given the premise of this shutdown, I don't see how it will save any lives. UK believes that their approach will save lives. I don't know about that. But I'm not convinced our approach will save any. Maybe spread it out. But after the bars open again, etc., and we've all been isolated, how can there not be a spike? Or, will everything be shut down until there's a vaccine. The problem is nobody is saying when or how it all ends.

I'd be interested to know the average age of mortality in Italy recorded as from this disease compared to the average lifespan with no Covid-19.

SU is over 60 now???

Jeez, we are all getting old

[myboynoah]

All federal workers in DC region are being asked to go on telework where possible.

[SeattleUte]

SU is over 60 now???

Jeez, we are all getting old

60 isn't old.

[Omaha 680]

I am sympathetic to SU's position on this, but I also think that the risk of economic devastation is lower in the USA than the rest of the west right now. The underlying fundamentals of our economy are pretty strong. Enough that we can withstand 4-6 weeks of disruption that comes with extreme social distancing. If it only lasts that long, I think pent up demand will be released and we will recover very quickly. This assumes that the government will step in and provide short term payments to workers who are completely idled by the shutdown...they appear to be preparing to do just that. A payroll tax holiday for businesses is also a good idea.

I'm really hopeful the most extreme measures will only last 4 weeks. Beyond that I start to worry as much as SU.

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[beefytee]

It looks like it is maybe 5x more lethal than the flu based on the small sampling of the Diamond Princess cruise ship:

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate

Of course, that sampling may be skewed by all the overweight and over drinking cruise ship boomers... they are really the only people that go on those cruises.

Also in that situation everyone who needed one had access to a ventilator. That will affect the mortality rate significantly.

[SeattleUte]

The Diamond Princess dope is solid stuff, Ted. Thanks. Not necessarily good news, but probably the most enlightening information yet. It's good to know.

[Uncle Ted]

Also in that situation everyone who needed one had access to a ventilator. That will affect the mortality rate significantly.

I guess you didn't catch my post about engineering the sh*t out of this problem... we have 3D printers and stuff.

[All-American]

I guess you didn't catch my post about engineering the sh*t out of this problem... we have 3D printers and stuff.

I think he was hoping for something with a bit more substance than waving a magic wand and everything will be all better.

[myboynoah]

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[Clark Addison]

60 isn't old.

Thanks, I appreciate it (FTR I am MUCH younger than 60)