Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Bo Diddley]

That near miss in over the Black Sea last year between the Russian fighters and UK surveillance plane was not a malfunction. Those guys are lucky to be alive.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66798508

[Bo Diddley]

Ukraine took out a landing craft and a submarine in a missile strike on Sevastopol, Crimea.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...tember-13-2023

Looks like they also took out an air defense system in Crimea.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897

These are great, but my optimism with the counter-offensive is starting to wane.

[Goatnapper'96]

Ukraine took out a landing craft and a submarine in a missile strike on Sevastopol, Crimea.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...tember-13-2023

Looks like they also took out an air defense system in Crimea.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897

These are great, but my optimism with the counter-offensive is starting to wane.

From what I can gather they are continuing to take real estate, just very slowly. The theory is that at some point they will have breached and widened the majority of the defensive fortifications and pick up the pace. My instinct is this slow speed is the Ukrainians preference as it mitigates their loss of human life. I am not sure Ukraine feels a need to change their operational tempo.

The maps at understandingwar.org give the appearance that once they breach the next set of fortifications south of Robotyne they will have more room to maneuver on Tokmok but my guess is that won't happen until next year.

Between saving their own lives and hoping their slow progress will lead to domestic political pressure within Western Allies to provide more ATCMs and F-16s, I think Ukraine doesn't feel the urgency to get it all done immediately. Their interdictions campaign is far more successful than Russia's and once the west provides them more of the above weapon systems their technological advantages increase thus allowing them to be even more effective in taking back land with less loss of human life.

It makes reading about it and posting about it boring, but I think month to month comparisons will show Ukraine is still steadily taking back land. It is tactically significant to recognize that while they are slow they are taking back land that is the most heavily fortified and defended-indicating that if they have the internal will and resources they can win it just might take a loooong time.

That is of course until the North Korean artillery shells arrive. LOL!

[Bo Diddley]

From what I can gather they are continuing to take real estate, just very slowly. The theory is that at some point they will have breached and widened the majority of the defensive fortifications and pick up the pace. My instinct is this slow speed is the Ukrainians preference as it mitigates their loss of human life. I am not sure Ukraine feels a need to change their operational tempo.

The maps at understandingwar.org give the appearance that once they breach the next set of fortifications south of Robotyne they will have more room to maneuver on Tokmok but my guess is that won't happen until next year.

Between saving their own lives and hoping their slow progress will lead to domestic political pressure within Western Allies to provide more ATCMs and F-16s, I think Ukraine doesn't feel the urgency to get it all done immediately. Their interdictions campaign is far more successful than Russia's and once the west provides them more of the above weapon systems their technological advantages increase thus allowing them to be even more effective in taking back land with less loss of human life.

It makes reading about it and posting about it boring, but I think month to month comparisons will show Ukraine is still steadily taking back land. It is tactically significant to recognize that while they are slow they are taking back land that is the most heavily fortified and defended-indicating that if they have the internal will and resources they can win it just might take a loooong time.

That is of course until the North Korean artillery shells arrive. LOL!

Yep, I've been watching those closely. And it's important to take into account they don't update the map until they have intel like geolocated photographs that are out in the public domain. So if Ukraine is trying to keep some movement hush-hush, ISW won't spill the beans. It's been agonizingly slow lately. Tokmok is just down the road! And winter is just around the corner. My expectations were obviously too high going into this last push. I think you have their pace better calibrated than me.

[Jeff Lebowski]

That is of course until the North Korean artillery shells arrive. LOL!

I find it funny that Putin is begging Kim Jong Un for help. My how far Russia has fallen.

[Commando]

I find it funny that Putin is begging Kim Jong Un for help. My how far Russia has fallen.

Also rushing to Trump's defense, calling America hypocritical for holding itself up as a bastion of Democracy while allowing for 'political persecution.' Of course MAGA is eating it all up like morons. Pro tip: if you are on Putin's side, you're dumb.

[frank ryan]

Also rushing to Trump's defense, calling America hypocritical for holding itself up as a bastion of Democracy while allowing for 'political persecution.' Of course MAGA is eating it all up like morons. Pro tip: if you are on Putin's side, you're dumb.

And/or evil. Look at how many cheerleaders Putin has in congress and government. Creepy Matt Gaetz, Ron DeSantis and Ron Paul come to mind.

[LVAllen]

And/or evil. Look at how many cheerleaders Putin has in congress and government. Creepy Matt Gaetz, Ron DeSantis and Ron Paul come to mind.

The poodle-haired Putin loving moron is Rand, Ron's son. Ron hasn't been in Congress in 10 years. Rand, on the other hand, is a board-certified ophthalmologist... certified by a board he created.

[frank ryan]

The poodle-haired Putin loving moron is Rand, Ron's son. Ron hasn't been in Congress in 10 years. Rand, on the other hand, is a board-certified ophthalmologist... certified by a board he created.

You're right. TY!

[Goatnapper'96]

Poland has announced they will no longer send equipment and aid to Ukraine. There are some political issues over cheap Ukrainian wheat flooding the European Market and the impact that is having upon Polish farmers. Poland is instituting some local bans or tariffs and Ukraine has sued Poland-I think in European Union court. The US is heading towards an election and cracks are starting to appear in bi-partisan support for Ukraine.

I guess the issue is whether or not allies are getting fatigued or is this just a short term issue?

To understand a bit-most of the equipment Ukraine's allies have sent to it is equipment from older stockpiles the countries have. In some senses countries like this because they can unload their older stuff and build or order new state of the art equipment. In the case of Poland-it has sent mostly upgraded Soviet era equipment to Ukraine and can now upgrade with western state of the art technology. It is getting to be more of a "sacrifice" for Poland to send equipment to Ukraine and the stuff they will have to send here in the near term future is good stuff and the Generals and politicians likely are feeling less charitable as there really isn't the same reward for the military as there was when unloading the old crap. There won't be upgraded equipment to replace the equipment the send to Ukraine. Further, Poland really has bad memories of Soviet occupation and is committed to doubling or tripling its defense spending in light of Russian historical imperial tendencies being manifested once again-so it feels that it cannot afford the ongoing cost of arming Ukraine. The wheat brouhaha is likely an easy justification to do what it is they want to do which is to focus on their ability to deter Russian aggression.

The US is bi-polar and tribalistic so right now the right is anti-Ukraine mostly because President Biden supports Ukraine.

Tactically, Ukraine has reached Verbove-a village southeast of Robotyne. They are currently working their way through penetrating the second tier of Russian defensive fortifications. Concurrently, they are working to widen the initial breach of the first layer of fortifications north of Robotyne. They need to widen the breach in order to bring through larger mechanized maneuver formations. Just as the breach was tedious so is the widening-allied countries have yet to provide Ukraine with top of the line de-mining equipment so the breaching and likely even widening, as Russian units on the front lines are still within artillery range of the units widening the original breach, are slow and methodical and done mostly by hand of light infantry at nighttime. The shorter days will actually give Ukraine more time to clear the heavy defensive fortifications. But the political reality is time is ticking. All the battle damage assessments and twitter slides keeping count of Russian soldiers and equipment destroyed don't liberate real estate. I think Ukraine needs some type of victory and advancement that is more engaging than 200- 800 meters/day. The west is losing interest and getting used to Ukraine and Russia just fighting it out via drone attacks on each other's land. But if Ukraine can advance in the manner the West expects mobile war to be fought I think that could reinvigorate support that I sense is starting to wane.

Back to the tactical situation, if the maps at Understandingwar.org are accurate-if Ukraine can breach and widen the second layer of defensive fortifications there is a lot of space to strike hard and strike fast with heavy mechanical maneuver units towards the Sea of Azov and split the Russian occupied land into two once they get south of Verbove. The reports are that the successive defensive fortifications are not as rugged as the initial so theoretically it ought to be easier and quicker to take Verbove, breach the next layer and hopefully move heavy units south of Verbove and then get game on attacking to the south and west into Tokmak, Melitopol and the Crimean peninsula.

I think Ukraine can score wins but if the Western will to support is starting to fray, there is an issue of conflicting realities. For Ukraine to strike hard and strike fast there will be far greater loss of Ukrainian life than they are seeing through their incremental approach. They will also lose equipment far more quickly than they currently are. So Ukraine is looking at losing support they are even more reticent to strike hard and strike fast if these Abrams and Challengers might be their last. Tough quandary they find themselves in. I agree with Zelensky that Ukraine will never drive the Russians out without support from the West-but they may have no choice to but gamble and strike hard to drive enough out to recapture the interest and emotional support of Western Allied constituencies.

[Bo Diddley]

Solid analysis. And to expand one of your points, Ukraine only has a few weeks left to make their move this season.

The thing is, sending support to Ukraine is pennies on the dollar when it comes to bleeding Russia's war resources. Poland would be wise to invest in Ukraine. I understand their need to rearm and upgrade, but they really should send a portion to Ukraine. They're probably gambling that other countries will pick up the slack. If Russia is able to consolidate their gains in Ukraine, they can start plotting their next move to expand.

[Bo Diddley]

Solid analysis. And to expand one of your points, Ukraine only has a few weeks left to make their move this season.

The thing is, sending support to Ukraine is pennies on the dollar when it comes to bleeding Russia's war resources. Poland would be wise to invest in Ukraine. I understand their need to rearm and upgrade, but they really should send a portion to Ukraine. They're probably gambling that other countries will pick up the slack. If Russia is able to consolidate their gains in Ukraine, they can start plotting their next move to expand.

ISW says Ukraine's methodical approach yields the results they're looking for by engaging Russian forces across the entire front, holding their forces in place denying them the ability to reinforce elsewhere. And due to the approach, they'll be able to continue to engage throughout the winter, even if at a slower pace while conditions are muddy.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...r-not-doubt-it

The West should also help shape strategic communications to set proper expectations around Ukraine’s progress. Ukraine can win this war militarily, but it will take more than one counteroffensive operation. It will take as many campaigns as it takes for Ukraine to liberate its territory and its people. The West should be prepared to support them all because the fundamentals shaping this conflict have not changed: Ukraine can win this war, Russia can only be defeated on the battlefield, and what is at stake includes Ukraine’s existence and vital US interests.

[Goatnapper'96]

ISW says Ukraine's methodical approach yields the results they're looking for by engaging Russian forces across the entire front, holding their forces in place denying them the ability to reinforce elsewhere. And due to the approach, they'll be able to continue to engage throughout the winter, even if at a slower pace while conditions are muddy.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...r-not-doubt-it

I agree with her but I thought it would help the cause if somebody with more expertise and/or experience in the military spent more time on the tactical implications of Ukraine's evolving tactics. The author is a ethnic Ukrainian and it was too much of just a cheerleading effort.

The reality is you and I may agree with her but to the ubiquitously spoken of "low information voters" the pictures speak louder than words and there just isn't enough real estate being taken back from Russia to catch their attention.

Various unconfirmed reports have Ukraine moving into Verbove and pushing into Novoprokopivka. To get there they are breaching the 2nd set of defensive fortifications. Reports include tracked vehicles, both tanks and IFVs, moving up to Verbove. It seems to me that by the time winter sets in and the ground freezes thus not impeding the maneuver capability of heavy vehicles Ukraine ought to be in a position to move on Tokmok. The longer nights and cold weather give their thermal and night sight technology huge advantages over the shitty equipment the gawdless commies have. But then again I am sure the North Koreans can provide some really exciting site technology to their brother Vlad.

I know how hesitant Ukraine is to protect their soldiers lives-even at the expense of speed but they may need to sacrifice lives in order to speed it up to satisfy enough of the Western allies constituencies to keep their support coming. If they can take Tokmok, and keep offensive pressure all along the front and continue to force the gawdless commies to laterally reinforce and thus keep all of the Russian units in Ukraine engaged-they could take huge swaths of land next summer. It has been the defensive fortifications that are slowing Ukraine down and by keeping all units engaged along the front Ukraine prevents Russia from being able to redig in another set of in depth fortifications because they just won't have the resources to do it.

I think Russia has given up trying to take more territory. Their plan is to just to slow down the Ukrainian counteroffensive as much as they can and hope the Western allies lose the will to support Ukraine and it becomes a stalemate. Right or wrong Ukraine must demonstrate it isn't a stalemate before that happens. Slovakia, Poland and the US are already showing signs of that support fraying so the clock is ticking. Attention spans are short.

[Bo Diddley]

The longer nights and cold weather give their thermal and night sight technology huge advantages over the shitty equipment the gawdless commies have. But then again I am sure the North Koreans can provide some really exciting site technology to their brother Vlad.

I think Russia has given up trying to take more territory. Their plan is to just to slow down the Ukrainian counteroffensive as much as they can and hope the Western allies lose the will to support Ukraine and it becomes a stalemate. Right or wrong Ukraine must demonstrate it isn't a stalemate before that happens. Slovakia, Poland and the US are already showing signs of that support fraying so the clock is ticking. Attention spans are short.

This is a fair assessment. And I'm optimistic (Hope springs eternal!) that they'll soon be able to pick up the pace to satisfy their benefactors.

[myboynoah]

Seeing this being reported/suggested from more than a few sources.

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