Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Bo Diddley]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ny-2023-06-28/

Russia's most senior generals have dropped out of public view following a failed mercenary mutiny aimed at toppling the top brass, amid a drive by President Vladimir Putin to reassert his authority and unconfirmed reports of at least one arrest.

Valery Gerasimov, Russia's top general, has not appeared in public or on state TV since the aborted mutiny on Saturday when mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov be handed over. He has not been mentioned in a defence ministry press release since June 9 either.

Gerasimov, 67, is the commander of Russia's war in Ukraine, and the holder of one of Russia's three "nuclear briefcases," according to some Western military analysts.

Absent from view too is General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed "General Armageddon" by the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.

[Bo Diddley]

Ukraine says they've arrested a Russian spy who sent footage of the busy restaurant to the Russian army hours before the attack.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66045197

That's huge.

[frank ryan]

Ukraine says they've arrested a Russian spy who sent footage of the busy restaurant to the Russian army hours before the attack.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66045197

That's huge.

Russia is disgusting. Keep in mind the American politicians and media figures who have been simping for Putin on Election Day.
Trump is a Russian stooge even if you guy into some odd belief that his connections to Russia were all imagined. His election would be a threat to our national security.

[Bo Diddley]

Another high ranking Russian general is killed in missile strike.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66171638

Lt Gen Tsokov was deputy commander of Russia's southern military district.

I'm ok with the pace of the counteroffensive. They're taking a measured deliberate approach. I anticipate a tipping point where things start moving faster.

[Goatnapper'96]

Another high ranking Russian general is killed in missile strike.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66171638



I'm ok with the pace of the counteroffensive. They're taking a measured deliberate approach. I anticipate a tipping point where things start moving faster.

I don't know exactly why the Ukrainians have yet to commit to a large offensive amassing massive combat firepower in one area. Obviously, the Russian's had a long time to develop staunch in depth defensive preparations and it takes time to figure out where and when is the best time to try to force a breakthrough. Especially, without air superiority or even equivalent airpower. However, I am wondering if Ukraine is waiting while Russia's COC continues to eat itself. From the Wagner mutiny to the high ranking Generals being fired and the appearance that sides are being drawn within the Russian MOD. This will create issues for Russia and as it self-destructs Ukraine can wait and hopefully break through easier with less loss of soldiers and equipment.


I have no concerns with the speed of the offensive but warfare is the application of political goals and the constituents in the Western democracies making Ukraine capable of winning this fight are going to want to see results. Those results are not BDA of Russian dead and blown up T-72s- warfare is about taking real estate. I don't know how long Ukraine is planning to wait before committing to that type of offensive action, but I don't believe they have unlimited time to demonstrate to Western democratic citizens that capacity before those countries start developing a consensus for freezing this conflict on current fronts and allowing Russia to annex occupied territory.

Today I saw a youtube clip on twitter where Ukrainians are trying to get mines to explode by dropping hand grenades from drones. Warfare often brings out levels of human ingenuity that can be so interesting if the human cost wasn't so repulsive.

[Bo Diddley]

I don't know exactly why the Ukrainians have yet to commit to a large offensive amassing massive combat firepower in one area. Obviously, the Russian's had a long time to develop staunch in depth defensive preparations and it takes time to figure out where and when is the best time to try to force a breakthrough. Especially, without air superiority or even equivalent airpower. However, I am wondering if Ukraine is waiting while Russia's COC continues to eat itself. From the Wagner mutiny to the high ranking Generals being fired and the appearance that sides are being drawn within the Russian MOD. This will create issues for Russia and as it self-destructs Ukraine can wait and hopefully break through easier with less loss of soldiers and equipment.

I've been thinking along these lines as well. Ukraine will make their move this year in time before winter hits. I think they're taking their time to continue to degrade Russian troops with HIMARS and missile strikes. I hoping for an epic Russian collapse when they finally make their breakthrough.

[myboynoah]

Yikes

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[frank ryan]

I've been thinking along these lines as well. Ukraine will make their move this year in time before winter hits. I think they're taking their time to continue to degrade Russian troops with HIMARS and missile strikes. I hoping for an epic Russian collapse when they finally make their breakthrough.

What kind of impact do the increasing but still random sabotage and drone attacks on Russian territory have to do with Russia reassessing their use of resources? Would things like that, and the pseudo-coup mean Moscow keeps more forces at home?

[Bo Diddley]

What kind of impact do the increasing but still random sabotage and drone attacks on Russian territory have to do with Russia reassessing their use of resources? Would things like that, and the pseudo-coup mean Moscow keeps more forces at home?

At a minimum it's a distraction and will require resources pulled in from somewhere. I think the greater reduction in combat power is having Wagner gather in Belarus. It's no coincidence that Russia expanded the age of men eligible for call-up from 27 to 30 years old.

[myboynoah]

WTH, Ukrainian saboteurs!?!? This St. George is in the U.S., not Russia.

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[Bo Diddley]

This is nothing new. A BBC article that talks about the torture of Ukrainian POW's in Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66453692

[Goatnapper'96]

Yikes

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During the Cold War the gawdless commies experimented with parachuting vehicles to the ground with their crews inside for the ride down. When I was in the Army we were told that their "doctrine" found a 25% casualty rate during training as acceptable.

[Goatnapper'96]

The folks at The Institute for the Understanding War are referencing Ukraine taking Robotyne as the first tactically significant victory of their counteroffensive because they had to negotiate through various levels of entrenched Russian defenses (minefields covered by artillery) to do this. I think they are trying to build the case that Ukraine's evolving tactics are demonstrating their capacity to re-take territory even if the speed is not what the West expected or wanted. Now the folks at this site don't like the gawdless commies any more than I do so we all might be seeing what we want to see, but if Ukraine can re-take Tokmok, about 15-20 miles from Robotyne, and start to pressure Melitopol that will impact this war both tactically and strategically more than anything since the Ukrainian counteroffensive that took back much of Eastern Ukraine last fall.

[Bo Diddley]

The folks at The Institute for the Understanding War are referencing Ukraine taking Robotyne as the first tactically significant victory of their counteroffensive because they had to negotiate through various levels of entrenched Russian defenses (minefields covered by artillery) to do this. I think they are trying to build the case that Ukraine's evolving tactics are demonstrating their capacity to re-take territory even if the speed is not what the West expected or wanted. Now the folks at this site don't like the gawdless commies any more than I do so we all might be seeing what we want to see, but if Ukraine can re-take Tokmok, about 15-20 miles from Robotyne, and start to pressure Melitopol that will impact this war both tactically and strategically more than anything since the Ukrainian counteroffensive that took back much of Eastern Ukraine last fall.

Agreed.

[Jeff Lebowski]

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