Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[wally]

I'd argue that there is an extreme benefit to Europe supporting Ukraine. When that conflict wraps up, Putin will turn towards Europe.

Doubt it, and not before he's dead of old age. Europe is waking up to its vulnerabilities regarding Russia with this conflict and 'gearing up.' I have seen several articles wherein is documented renewed spending among EU countries on F-35s, nuclear aircraft carriers, etc. but at the same time, Russia continuing to deplete manpower and has to grow or find more for another campaign, all just to test the resolve of NATO.
I REALLY cannot see Russia's ambitions stretch beyond Ukraine for the next decade, which gives the rest of the EU plenty of time to get defenses in a better place.

[wally]

Enlighten us on how Russia could fight dirtier than they already have.

And Europe has massively stepped up support for Ukraine after the US backed down.

The nukes are a non-issue. Dropping a nuke would make a country such a pariah on the international stage that it would set them back for generations. Otherwise, Putin would have used one by now. Hell, Ukraine is now successfully attacking sites in Moscow with long-range drones. They aren't worried about nukes.

I guess I just have a lot of faith in Russian innovation in this regard. Maybe I am wrong and ol' Putin is totally out of tricks? If he is, and Russia starts losing significant ground, what do you think he would do? Maybe he would roll over, say 'aww shucks,' then agree to whatever 'punishment' the victors heap upon him? I think it is the wisest choice to help Ukraine to the extent that provides maximum stress on Russia without causing overly desperate conditions.

I am glad that Europe has stepped up here. It is entirely appropriate for them to lead out on Ukraine and for the US to play a more secondary supportive role.

Maybe you are right that Putin is all bluff on the nuke front, but I guess that I am also concerned with how a severely depleted Russia would manage its significant nuclear arsenal. Maybe a warhead goes missing? oopsies! We have not ventured into a territory yet where a nuclear state fails, and we have to worry about a second-order effect of that.

This is why i am a fan of letting Russia 'save some face' in this Ukraine conflict and just get to a position where a stalemate can eventually turn into a new border and codified as best as possible with a new treaty of some sort. Then just let Putin fade out and see what we can deal with in the next administration. I tend to lean toward Mearsheimer's description of international anarchy and that large nation-state powers are looking to protect their interests by whatever means as long as they can minimize negative fallout, maintaining some equilibrium. I am a pragmatist like that. My inner idealist, does not agree, though.

[Bo Diddley]

Be specific. What do you recommend?

Maybe start by not waiving sanctions on Russian oil after you create a market crisis.

Crack down on sanctions evasion by third countries.

Target banks and companies that help Russia move oil and tech.

Europe needs to stop buying energy from Russia.

[frank ryan]

Doubt it, and not before he's dead of old age. Europe is waking up to its vulnerabilities regarding Russia with this conflict and 'gearing up.' I have seen several articles wherein is documented renewed spending among EU countries on F-35s, nuclear aircraft carriers, etc. but at the same time, Russia continuing to deplete manpower and has to grow or find more for another campaign, all just to test the resolve of NATO.
I REALLY cannot see Russia's ambitions stretch beyond Ukraine for the next decade, which gives the rest of the EU plenty of time to get defenses in a better place.

You doubt it, but Russia's foreign policy and military doctrine is all about regaining territories they lost post-cold war.

Moldova well could be a flashpoint. With genuine possibilities about Transnistria being reintegrated is concerning, and Russia's foreign policy and military doctrine is all about retaking lands lost after the Cold War.

Up to Putin, there won't be restraint.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Perhaps the biggest hindrance to Putin throwing in the towel is Russia's historical lack of any compunction about sacrificing hundreds of thousands, even many millions, of lives to preserve the reigning power structure.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Perhaps the biggest hindrance to Putin throwing in the towel is Russia's historical lack of any compunction about sacrificing hundreds of thousands, even many millions, of lives to preserve the reigning power structure.

That is fine until you literally run out of people. Keep in mind that factories in Russia are facing critical labor shortages because of the war.

[PaloAltoCougar]

That is fine until you literally run out of people. Keep in mind that factories in Russia are facing critical labor shortages because of the war.

On the plus side, the Russian prison population has dropped by nearly 40%. Some quality conscripts there.

[Moliere]

Oil prices being up would seem to be a lifeline.

Lifting some sanctions on oil has also helped. The war in Iran has been an indirect gift to Russia.

[wally]

That is fine until you literally run out of people. Keep in mind that factories in Russia are facing critical labor shortages because of the war.

Great observation. So this, coupled with Russia's total fertility rate of 1.4 (2.1 is the minimum for maintenance without migration) is why

1. I don't believe Russia will have an immediate appetite to invade any more nations after Ukraine
2. I do believe Russia is quite possibly approaching a point of desperation, both demographically and economically
3. I believe that Russia collapsing in some way is a very, very bad thing for global stability.

I am not arguing this because "I am on Russia's side" (yeah, i serve a mission there, and as such left a piece of my heart there). I am arguing this because even though it may be super satisfying to see Russia "pay for their crimes," I think that there are significant security risks to regime change. Russia has like, 5400 nuclear warheads. We have 5100, next highest is China with 600. If Russia kills off all its military in Ukraine and then collapses economically and demographically, who is gonna secure their arsenal? How many nukes will the Russian mafia abscond with? Isn't it some sort of trope in every movie with an illicit arms dealer where that guy is Russian mafia?

What if a collapsing front on the war pushes out of Ukraine and into Russia to a point where Ukrainian forces occupy a Russian ICBM Silo?

I think on some level, you have to allow Russia to save face to some extent to end this conflict with minimal splashback.

[Moliere]

I hope no one on this board thinks Putin will invade a NATO country. A small, insignificant European country that is not in NATO, maybe, but highly unlikely.

[BigFatMeanie]

I hope no one on this board thinks Putin will invade a NATO country. A small, insignificant European country that is not in NATO, maybe, but highly unlikely.

How many small insignificant European countries not in NATO are there?

ChatGPT tells me:

• Andorra
• Monaco
• San Marino
• Liechtenstein
• Ireland
• Malta

For not-quite-so-small and not-quite-so-insignificant European countries not in NATO you have:

• Switzerland - good luck with that - have to get through NATO members Poland, Germany, Chzechia, Slovakia first.
• Austria - also good luck with that - have to get through NATO members Poland, Chzechia, Slovakia, and Hungary first.
• Serbia - Have to get through the NATO membersTurkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary first
• Bosnia and Herzegovina - Have to get through the NATO states Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary first
• Kosovo - Have to get through the NATO states Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary first
• Belarus - already a puppet Russian state
• Moldova - already a pupet Russian enclave and in order to get there the Russkies would need to go through Ukraine, so...

[frank ryan]

I hope no one on this board thinks Putin will invade a NATO country. A small, insignificant European country that is not in NATO, maybe, but highly unlikely.

With respect Moli, it's hardly a silly concern.

Russia has already been engaging in hybrid warfare in some of these places. You have a lot more confidence he won't than European leaders and generals do.


Moldova is not a Russian puppet. It's a critical point in their history right now. There is a lot of talk of them wanting to unify with Romania. Transnistria, which is a Russian puppet isn't doin well.

[BlueK]

I hope no one on this board thinks Putin will invade a NATO country. A small, insignificant European country that is not in NATO, maybe, but highly unlikely.

Maybe we shouldn't be concerned, but people in Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and even Poland seem to be a little worried based on some articles I've read at different times since Russia invaded Ukraine. These are all NATO countries. Now that Russia has been bogged down maybe they're not as worried today as they were earlier in the war.

[frank ryan]

Maybe we shouldn't be concerned, but people in Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and even Poland seem to be a little worried based on some articles I've read at different times since Russia invaded Ukraine. These are all NATO countries. Now that Russia has been bogged down maybe they're not as worried today as they were earlier in the war.

Germany is also concerned. It didn't help that Trump withdrew troops from there.

This is an interesting article about Russian hybrid warfare in Europe. The Russian are already engaging in physical
sabotage. It's from a European think tank and worth reading in its entirety.

We still have time before Russia is ready for a major war, but that time is constantly shrinking.” Former NATO Military Chief Admiral Rob Bauer’s warning, as he stepped down, serves as a grim corrective to renewed diplomatic activity surrounding the ongoing efforts towards a potential peace settlement. While the US administration pushes peace plans that Anne Applebaum rightly argues risk prolonging rather than shortening the war, a period of strategic ambiguity is emerging that the Kremlin is actively exploiting.

The Kremlin’s recent statements, particularly in response to the ongoing peace negotiations, underscore its intent to run down the clock while expanding its territorial ambitions. On 27 November, Russian President Putin once again repeated maximalist demands, stating that the war in Ukraine will only end “once Ukrainian troops withdraw from the territories they occupy.”

Putin is actively using current negotiations not to seek peace, but to buy time and double down on plans to pressure and confront the West through an escalation of hybrid warfare in Europe to sow fear, create chaos, and undermine support for Ukraine while remaining below the threshold of direct military confrontation. Even where negotiations show procedural progress, core deadlocks over territory concessions, control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and security guarantees remain unresolved, prolonging talks while the Kremlin preserves freedom of action.

The trajectory is unmistakable: intelligence reports confirm a four-fold increase in Russian sabotage operations across Europe in 2024 compared to the previous year, with the surge accelerating in 2025.






The Kremlin’s “shadow fleet” initially used by Russia to bypass Western sanctions, has been used in deliberate undersea damage to Baltic Sea fibre cables using dual-use ships operating under third-country flags. Since 2024, there have been repeated cuts to optical and surveillance cables in the Baltics and the Nordics, indicating that the Kremlin is stepping up its maritime sabotage at sea.

The same situation is repeating across other European countries, at an even faster pace. Across Central and Eastern Europe, authorities have uncovered coordinated sabotage activities targeting railways, logistics hubs, and commercial infrastructure linked to Ukraine-bound supply chains. Investigations in Poland, Germany, and Lithuania in 2025 uncovered overlapping networks linked to Russian military intelligence, often operating via proxies and criminal intermediaries to preserve deniability.

[frank ryan]

How many small insignificant European countries not in NATO are there?

ChatGPT tells me:

• Andorra
• Monaco
• San Marino
• Liechtenstein
• Ireland
• Malta

For not-quite-so-small and not-quite-so-insignificant European countries not in NATO you have:

• Switzerland - good luck with that - have to get through NATO members Poland, Germany, Chzechia, Slovakia first.
• Austria - also good luck with that - have to get through NATO members Poland, Chzechia, Slovakia, and Hungary first.
• Serbia - Have to get through the NATO membersTurkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary first
• Bosnia and Herzegovina - Have to get through the NATO states Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary first
• Kosovo - Have to get through the NATO states Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary first
• Belarus - already a puppet Russian state
• Moldova - already a pupet Russian enclave and in order to get there the Russkies would need to go through Ukraine, so...

Serbia's dictatorial leader is trying to play a political game that involves getting along with everyone, including both Moscow and the West, but the country is very pro-Russian.

Turkey is still a wildcard that can't be counted on to back the alliance. Slovakia's leader is also Putin-friendly. He attended Russia's Victory Day's celebration.

Bosnia and Herzegovina is under strain. They have a unique government that includes the country having 3 co-equal presidents. There is a very real possibility it breaks up, something which Russian psychological warfare is encouraging.