Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[frank ryan]

The US has warned Poland about a potential attack from Russia.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...olve-us-warns/

Russia is planning an armed “provocation” on Polish soil to test Nato’s resolve, the United States has warned.

Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones or Russian soldiers could cross the border into Nato territory.

Washington has issued several warnings to Warsaw about the plot, sources close to Karol Nawrocki, the Polish president, told Onet, the Polish news outlet, which, along with The Telegraph, is owned by Axel Springer and is part of its Global Reporters Network.


The goal of the Russian provocation would be to escalate tensions and force Western allies to suspend aid to Ukraine. It could be launched in a matter of months.

Polish security sources have also not ruled out a more conventional attack, such as a small ground incursion of Russian soldiers across Nato’s eastern flank.

According to Onet’s security sources, provocation scenarios could include a drone attack on critical infrastructure, such as power stations, or simulated air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems.

One Polish intelligence source said that in the most extreme scenario, a “hybrid attack in the border region” could occur.

The same source said an armed incursion involving Russian or Belarusian soldiers was conceivable.

This could be presented by Russia as an accidental straying into Polish territory because of a GPS failure, or as a dubious rescue mission to retrieve a helicopter suffering from a malfunction.


Russia would count on the fact that, instead of opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers in such a situation, Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia or Belarus rather than respond forcefully, Polish sources told Onet.

[Pelado]

Ukraine is blowing up their refineries.

Gotcha. That makes sense.

[Moliere]

That line is almost as long as the Costco gas line around 5pm.

[Moliere]

My understanding is that Russia has lots of oil. Do they lack refining capability? Why the shortage?

Ukraine is blowing up their refineries.

[Pelado]

My understanding is that Russia has lots of oil. Do they lack refining capability? Why the shortage?

[Jeff Lebowski]

Holy cow. Look at this line.

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[wally]

I think there are two off ramps for this war. 1.) it just wilts away over time. Russia stops seeking to take territory and just digs in on current FLOT and Ukraine little by little stop their long range drone/missile attacks on Russian assets. The FLOT has been essentially stabile since late 2022. I am convinced Ukraine is willing to accept Russian control over the occupied lands. I don't think Ukraine has the manpower to retake those territories. I don't think Russia can take much more territory and right now I think Russia has more to gain from peace than Ukraine. While I believe Russia will eventually develop answers to the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian soil-this war is hitting the homeland and that reality is only going to get more intense with each passing month in many areas and directions. I think the best current explanation of the battlefield situation for Russia is "Putin is fighting a war he cannot lose with an army that cannot win." Off ramp 2: Oligarchs and military elites conspire to depose Putin and make him the fall guy and then come back to holding hands with the western world with claims of efforts to democratically progress yada yada yada until the next gawdless commie strongman starts doing what gawdless commie strongmen have been doing for thousands of years. I would prefer offramp 2 as the unfettered reintegration of Russian oil into the western world would be great but I am just not sure it can happen.

I like your summary, I had been assuming Option #1 being the most likely outcome, because Putin is really, really good at staying in power, and anyone who challenges/fails him just seems to have bad luck staying alive. Weird. Also, I think that whoever wants to replace Putin will really want to just inherit whatever framework that Putin has built to stay in power for over 20 years, rather than have to build their own, and deposing him would disrupt or destroy that, I would assume, unless it is done collaboratively by those in his inner circle. It will be interesting to watch that power transition play out, but I agree that Ukraine may catalyze it.

[Bo Diddley]

I think the best current explanation of the battlefield situation for Russia is "Putin is fighting a war he cannot lose with an army that cannot win.

That statement is a great summary. This war has been close to a stalemate for a long time. The most likely outcome is that the stalemate eventually turns into a ceasefire.

[Goatnapper'96]

I think there are two off ramps for this war. 1.) it just wilts away over time. Russia stops seeking to take territory and just digs in on current FLOT and Ukraine little by little stop their long range drone/missile attacks on Russian assets. The FLOT has been essentially stabile since late 2022. I am convinced Ukraine is willing to accept Russian control over the occupied lands. I don't think Ukraine has the manpower to retake those territories. I don't think Russia can take much more territory and right now I think Russia has more to gain from peace than Ukraine. While I believe Russia will eventually develop answers to the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian soil-this war is hitting the homeland and that reality is only going to get more intense with each passing month in many areas and directions. I think the best current explanation of the battlefield situation for Russia is "Putin is fighting a war he cannot lose with an army that cannot win." Off ramp 2: Oligarchs and military elites conspire to depose Putin and make him the fall guy and then come back to holding hands with the western world with claims of efforts to democratically progress yada yada yada until the next gawdless commie strongman starts doing what gawdless commie strongmen have been doing for thousands of years. I would prefer offramp 2 as the unfettered reintegration of Russian oil into the western world would be great but I am just not sure it can happen.

[falafel]

You extrapolated this out of my comment?

Trump trolls for the same reason bullies picked on you. He enjoys the reaction.

That is a great trait for the most powerful man on the planet. A juvenile bully!

[Green Monstah]

I still think giving himcredit for trolling is too much. I do t think he has the mental horsepower to troll.

[Maximus]

You extrapolated this out of my comment?

Trump trolls for the same reason bullies picked on you. He enjoys the reaction.

No he does it because he doesnt have the intellectual ability to do otherwise

[Shaka]

That’s cute. You still think he’s playing chess when he’s really playing chutes and ladders.

You extrapolated this out of my comment?

Trump trolls for the same reason bullies picked on you. He enjoys the reaction.

[Green Monstah]

I'm not a gamer so no. I think Trump trolls all the time, especially on Truth Social/X. I think he gets off on you people freaking out over everything.

That’s cute. You still think he’s playing chess when he’s really playing chutes and ladders.

[falafel]

I don't think falawful realizes just how much hubris his post actually contained.

Ha, you all underestimate my hubris levels.