Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Pheidippides]

Why everybody is up in arms over Russia's involvement.

Background: The largest ethnic component of me is Ukrainian. I do have some understanding of the geopolitics and situation. Moreover, I grew up with at least a portion of the ethnic pride that is apparent - you never made the mistake of calling my Baba's food "Russian" twice, or mistaking which language she spoke. Cardiac will be far better versed than I am, however.

So, at any rate, my understanding is that (1) a large portion of the Crimeans are of Russian ethnicity, so much so that they were semi - autonomous already, (2) they effectively declared independence from the Ukraine, and (3) the Russian Black Sea fleet is stationed permanently in Crimea and has been for years. If that's the case, why wouldn't we expect Russia and Putin to be involved?!? I'm not exactly seeing the surprise. Concern is obvious because nobody wants to have a bloody war with people dying of course.

[byu71]

Why everybody is up in arms over Russia's involvement.

Background: The largest ethnic component of me is Ukrainian. I do have some understanding of the geopolitics and situation. Moreover, I grew up with at least a portion of the ethnic pride that is apparent - you never made the mistake of calling my Baba's food "Russian" twice, or mistaking which language she spoke. Cardiac will be far better versed than I am, however.

So, at any rate, my understanding is that (1) a large portion of the Crimeans are of Russian ethnicity, so much so that they were semi - autonomous already, (2) they effectively declared independence from the Ukraine, and (3) the Russian Black Sea fleet is stationed permanently in Crimea and has been for years. If that's the case, why wouldn't we expect Russia and Putin to be involved?!? I'm not exactly seeing the surprise. Concern is obvious because nobody wants to have a bloody war with people dying of course.

Romney saw problems coming with the Russians. Of course Obama and the press chided him for that. How naive for Romney not to know the cold war has been over for 20 years.

Yea, somebody at a higher pay grade should have seen this coming instead of looking like a deer in the headlights and scrambling to decide what to do.

[USUC]

Crimea is lost. There is no form of pressure that will make the Russians withdraw from Crimea. I expect the same will happen for a couple of the eastern provinces of the Ukraine. If they aren't incorporated into Russia proper they will be Russian occupied territories. Putin made a move that left EVERY Western country scrambling. Romney would have been no different.

Now I think there is a reason to be up in arms over Putin's actions. Putin is a tyrant and authoritarian. If the Russian Military enters Ukraine on its eastern borders it will clearly be breaking international law. The US needs to be wise and not escalate this to unnecessary levels. Putin has been dealing with uprisings in his own country, Islamic terrorists from the Islamic portions of his country, and is now taking on the Crimean Tartars that certainly aren't pro-Russian. He is speeding up his own undoing. Under no circumstances do I think the West (and especially the US) should intervene militarily, even if Putin invades the entire country of Ukraine.

[snowcat]

Why everybody is up in arms over Russia's involvement.

Here are some of the reasons why I am concerned.

1) We signed a treaty with Ukraine to defend against Russian aggression. What are the ramifications if we honor this? What are the ramifications if we don't?

2) If Russia wants to support an independent Crimea, why do it militarily rather than at the negotiation table? I think it is likely that they would have been able to get this, especially since it appears to be the will of the Crimeans.

3) China is now backing the Russian military takeover. I am not sure this is a good thing for the future.

4) What happens now with eastern Ukraine. Could issues spread to the Baltics?

5) The west looks very weak. How will this impact other problem areas in the world (North Korea, China and Taiwan, Iran, Syria, Venezuela).

[byu71]

Crimea is lost. There is no form of pressure that will make the Russians withdraw from Crimea. I expect the same will happen for a couple of the eastern provinces of the Ukraine. If they aren't incorporated into Russia proper they will be Russian occupied territories. Putin made a move that left EVERY Western country scrambling. Romney would have been no different.

Now I think there is a reason to be up in arms over Putin's actions. Putin is a tyrant and authoritarian. If the Russian Military enters Ukraine on its eastern borders it will clearly be breaking international law. The US needs to be wise and not escalate this to unnecessary levels. Putin has been dealing with uprisings in his own country, Islamic terrorists from the Islamic portions of his country, and is now taking on the Crimean Tartars that certainly aren't pro-Russian. He is speeding up his own undoing. Under no circumstances do I think the West (and especially the US) should intervene militarily, even if Putin invades the entire country of Ukraine.

We will never know, but I will disagree with you on Romney. If you are very suspicious of someone you aren't as likely to get caught off guard. Or if you have a more aggressive attitude toward an enemy instaed of hoping they aren't an advesary and you are an appeaser, you will be more prepared.

I do agree with you now we find ourselves where we do. Let the Russians have Crimea, however lower the boom on them with financial sanctions etc. If we keep playing their patsy who knows where this ends up. I think Putin is a smart cunning egomaniac.

[USUC]

We will never know, but I will disagree with you on Romney. If you are very suspicious of someone you aren't as likely to get caught off guard. Or if you have a more aggressive attitude toward an enemy instaed of hoping they aren't an advesary and you are an appeaser, you will be more prepared.

I do agree with you now we find ourselves where we do. Let the Russians have Crimea, however lower the boom on them with financial sanctions etc. If we keep playing their patsy who knows where this ends up. I think Putin is a smart cunning egomaniac.

Which will ultimately be his undoing. He is gambling that his energy supply to Eastern Europe and Germany will give him all the leverage he needs to create another Iron Curtain. He wants a buffer against the West. Russia has lost Poland and the Baltic States. I think the people of Russia will only be able to tolerate this for so long. Propaganda can only go so far. They have experienced what a modern standard of living entails. They won't sacrifice their standard of living for the desires of a psychopath for too long.

[Applejack]

Romney saw problems coming with the Russians. Of course Obama and the press chided him for that. How naive for Romney not to know the cold war has been over for 20 years.

Yea, somebody at a higher pay grade should have seen this coming instead of looking like a deer in the headlights and scrambling to decide what to do.

Whatever happened to Ill Padrino? He leaves for a few months and now BYU71 is stealing all of his material.

[byu71]

Whatever happened to Ill Padrino? He leaves for a few months and now BYU71 is stealing all of his material.

I would be glad to hear why you think he would be wrong if I did steal his material. Of course you could be agreeing and just indicating I am a thief.

[Applejack]

I would be glad to hear why you think he would be wrong if I did steal his material. Of course you could be agreeing and just indicating I am a thief.

Just lay off his trademarked "Dear Leader."

[USUC]

Is the divided Ukraine narrative in Western media wrong?

The problem is that much of the media’s referenced information is coming from the outdated 2010 presidential elections or even from 2004 Orange Revolution data. During the past seven months, the picture has dramatically changed. As for the past month, the harsh division is simply not there anymore.

Most of Ukraine’s citizens who represent the nation’s cultural and intellectual society have held a view directly opposite to mainstream Western media.

The “divided Ukraine” narrative is seductive in its simplicity and disastrous in its ramifications. Sure, it’s easier to consume. But it’s also wrong—and it contributes to Putin’s plan to bring catastrophe to a nation that is struggling for democracy and human rights.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-e...ne-338107.html

Here is what the 2001 census says about Ukrainian speakers vs Russian speakers in the country (Ukrainian speaking in blue, Russian Speaking in red).

credit-tovelwikimedia.jpg

This stuff is tragic but fascinating to watch unfold.

[Katy Lied]

Havent followed this in detail because I'm too depressed at the turn of events. As I am in a murderous mood, here are my not-so-well-intentioned suggestions.

The Crimea is lost. Ukraine should just give it to Russia in return for Russia's pullout.
If Russia accepts the deal Ukraine should begin ethnic cleansing in southeastern Ukraine, and push every ethnic Russian over the border into the Crimea. Then the russians can all be united with Russia, which is what they want, and the Crimea is much nicer than most of southeastern Ukraine.

I get impatient with Obama as he seem's like Putin's bitch, outmaneuvered by Putin at every turn, and not just with respect to Ukraine. He also seems weak and ineffectual, and now a lot of Ukrainians will lose their freedom while Obama is proposing more educational programs for disadvantaged youth. However, my contempt for Obama is moderated by the following:

1. Ukraine is to Russia as Mexico is to the US. A preference trade partner with common history, language, and geography. The US threatening Russia on Ukraine is like the Russians invading Mexico. Or Cuba. Oh wait...

2. So the US trying to enact military threats in the Crimea would be like Russia trying to move troops into Tijuana. It's so easy for the US to defend a neighbor.

3. Obama is symptommatic of US voters in general-- we all have war fatique and don't want to fight anymore. And if that means that we ignore our values of freedom and liberty and look the other way while the Russkies take something, we will.

[byu71]

Havent followed this in detail because I'm too depressed at the turn of events. As I am in a murderous mood, here are my not-so-well-intentioned suggestions.

The Crimea is lost. Ukraine should just give it to Russia in return for Russia's pullout.
If Russia accepts the deal Ukraine should begin ethnic cleansing in southeastern Ukraine, and push every ethnic Russian over the border into the Crimea. Then the russians can all be united with Russia, which is what they want, and the Crimea is much nicer than most of southeastern Ukraine.

I get impatient with Obama as he seem's like Putin's bitch, outmaneuvered by Putin at every turn, and not just with respect to Ukraine. He also seems weak and ineffectual, and now a lot of Ukrainians will lose their freedom while Obama is proposing more educational programs for disadvantaged youth. However, my contempt for Obama is moderated by the following:

1. Ukraine is to Russia as Mexico is to the US. A preference trade partner with common history, language, and geography. The US threatening Russia on Ukraine is like the Russians invading Mexico. Or Cuba. Oh wait...

2. So the US trying to enact military threats in the Crimea would be like Russia trying to move troops into Tijuana. It's so easy for the US to defend a neighbor.

3. Obama is symptommatic of US voters in general-- we all have war fatique and don't want to fight anymore. And if that means that we ignore our values of freedom and liberty and look the other way while the Russkies take something, we will.

From what I heard this morning the Europeans are soft. Hard to get them to join in with sanctions. They are so used to letting the US do it or at least the bulk of it. Of course in Obamaworld we are headed to becoming just like them SOFT.

I actually am becoming soft myself. I would like to see us pull our troops out of Europe and tell Germany, England, France, you are on your own. We are tired of being responsible for your sorry asses.

Especially for the French ingrates. I spent a summer there in 1964 and all I heard was, why are you in Viet Nam and on and on. My only reply was saving their sorry asses like we did yours.

[Katy Lied]

That reminds me of a line from the Monuments Men:

James Granger: "Well Mademoiselle, if it weren't for us, you'd be speaking German."
Mme Claire Simone: "No monsieur, I'd be dead. But I'd still be speaking French."

[CardiacCoug]

I think I posted this before, but when I was in Simferopol the majority of Church members and other people we met were very pro-Russian. They wanted Zyuganov to beat Yeltsin in the 1996 election because he might take Crimea back.

I remember a really smart nice guy saying something like, "What made Abraham Lincoln a great president? He went to war to keep the Union together. We need Zyuganov to be our Abraham Lincoln."

[CardiacCoug]

Why everybody is up in arms over Russia's involvement.

Background: The largest ethnic component of me is Ukrainian. I do have some understanding of the geopolitics and situation. Moreover, I grew up with at least a portion of the ethnic pride that is apparent - you never made the mistake of calling my Baba's food "Russian" twice, or mistaking which language she spoke. Cardiac will be far better versed than I am, however.

So, at any rate, my understanding is that (1) a large portion of the Crimeans are of Russian ethnicity, so much so that they were semi - autonomous already, (2) they effectively declared independence from the Ukraine, and (3) the Russian Black Sea fleet is stationed permanently in Crimea and has been for years. If that's the case, why wouldn't we expect Russia and Putin to be involved?!? I'm not exactly seeing the surprise. Concern is obvious because nobody wants to have a bloody war with people dying of course.

I think the main thing is that Ukraine only gave up its nuclear weapons in the early 90s in return for a promise from Russia to respect its borders. I think the Crimea was a major, major point of those negotiations because it was historically Russian.

So essentially Ukraine traded its nuclear weapons for Crimea. Now they have no nucs and Russia is taking back Crimea anyway.