At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[Jeff Lebowski]

New York Magazine with Buzzfeed as source? Are you kidding?

Lol.

How about the Guardian?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

BBC good enough for you?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51915302

[Jeff Lebowski]

You seem to have trouble holding two opposing ideas in your mind at the same time. And then you obsess about the one that you do hold. I've noticed this in the past. I'm sure you're a brilliant engineer.

What are the two opposing ideas?

[Omaha 680]

I fear the U.S. will be more like China (or even worse) than like Korea. I hope it doesn't resemble Italy, Spain, and France Given the late start, it will likely at take at least two weeks to get an idea of the true number of infected.

How long will social distancing for coronavirus have to last? Depends on these factors.

Sincere question: wasnt the chinese initial response more delayed than ours? The virus originated there in Mid Novemeber so it took several weeks for doctors to even recognize there was a problem. More than a month later the government was still silencing journalists and citizens publicizing the virus. China's ability the thwart the advance of the disease due to total control of the population certainly helped get it under control, but Wuhan wasnt sealed off until Jan 23, more than two months after the first suspected case.

Obviously we wont do as well as Korea, but even if our initial response was botched, our response time to significant action was much shorter than China. Thoughts?

I guess I'm thinking our peak will be somewhere between Korea and China. But my optimism may be unwarranted.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[SeattleUte]

Sincere question: wasnt the chinese initial response more delayed than ours? The virus originated there in Mid Novemeber so it took several weeks for doctors to even recognize there was a problem. More than a month later the government was still silencing journalists and citizens publicizing the virus. China's ability the thwart the advance of the disease due to total control of the population certainly helped get it under control, but Wuhan wasnt sealed off until Jan 23, more than two months after the first suspected case.

Obviously we wont do as well as Korea, but even if our initial response was botched, our response time to significant action was much shorter than China. Thoughts?

I guess I'm thinking our peak will be somewhere between Korea and China. But my optimism may be unwarranted.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

That's what the paper I posted this morning says.

Has anyone noticed that the daytime temperature in Wuhan and other Chinese cities has been in the seventies?

[SeattleUte]

What are the two opposing ideas?

See what I mean?

[beefytee]

Sincere question: wasnt the chinese initial response more delayed than ours? The virus originated there in Mid Novemeber so it took several weeks for doctors to even recognize there was a problem. More than a month later the government was still silencing journalists and citizens publicizing the virus. China's ability the thwart the advance of the disease due to total control of the population certainly helped get it under control, but Wuhan wasnt sealed off until Jan 23, more than two months after the first suspected case.

Obviously we wont do as well as Korea, but even if our initial response was botched, our response time to significant action was much shorter than China. Thoughts?

I guess I'm thinking our peak will be somewhere between Korea and China. But my optimism may be unwarranted.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Wuhan city was shut down completely when there were fewer than 500 reported cases:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

See chart #7.

[SeattleUte]

Lol.

How about the Guardian?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/uk-to-ban-mass-gatherings-in-coronavirus-u-turn

BBC good enough for you?

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51915302

These publications are all incestuous. You also tend to be a consumer of one kind of media. The kind of media outlets that, for example, call Israel white supremacist and allege that it is practicing apartheid.

[Jeff Lebowski]

See what I mean?

No I don't. Sorry. Help me out.

[Jeff Lebowski]

These publications are all incestuous. You also tend to be a consumer of one kind of media. The kind of media outlets that, for example, call Israel white supremacist and allege that it is practicing apartheid.

You think these outlets are lying about the UK's change in strategy? Seriously?

I am worried about you, SU. You seem unhinged.

[wapiti]

So the Utah Jazz had this super-infectious virus in their system undetected for several days. They played basketball together, traveled together, ate together, shared sweat and breath, and the infected one didn't practice good social hygiene. They got one additional infection. Played against the Raptors. No infection. Anecdotal? Yes. But its still evidence that the R0 might be a lot lower than projected.

If you are a pandemic expert this is what you have been preparing for your entire life. You have spreadsheets that show how scary exponential growth is. You have preliminary data that shows this virus may meet some of the worst case criteria. Just a few days response can make a huge difference in the outcome.

But do they really have the right inputs as to how contagious this is and what the mortality rates are or will be? No. They have a few data points. The focus is on Italy. But what about Germany where the mortality is incredibly low? Can we limit this thing with common sense social distancing rather than draconian measures. I mean, completely shutting down San Francisco over this?

The economic fallout from this will be brutal.

[Jeff Lebowski]

White House ramping up seriousness of the response partly due to dire warning from British researchers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/u...01tion=topNews

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

To curb the epidemic, there would need to be drastic restrictions on work, school and social gatherings for periods of time until a vaccine was available, which could take 18 months, according to the report, compiled by British researchers. They cautioned that such steps carried enormous costs that could also affect people’s health, but concluded they were “the only viable strategy at the current time.”

[smokymountainrain]

Is the job loss expected to grow exponentially?

sorry, are you serious?

[tooblue]

So the Utah Jazz had this super-infectious virus in their system undetected for several days. They played basketball together, traveled together, ate together, shared sweat and breath, and the infected one didn't practice good social hygiene. They got one additional infection. Played against the Raptors. No infection. Anecdotal? Yes. But its still evidence that the R0 might be a lot lower than projected.

If you are a pandemic expert this is what you have been preparing for your entire life. You have spreadsheets that show how scary exponential growth is. You have preliminary data that shows this virus may meet some of the worst case criteria. Just a few days response can make a huge difference in the outcome.

But do they really have the right inputs as to how contagious this is and what the mortality rates are or will be? No. They have a few data points. The focus is on Italy. But what about Germany where the mortality is incredibly low? Can we limit this thing with common sense social distancing rather than draconian measures. I mean, completely shutting down San Francisco over this?

The economic fallout from this will be brutal.

Codifying it as merely the obsession of pandemic experts is dangerous. Links to a variety of sources on the subject:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-facts-cure-mortality-rate-virus-covid-19

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-is-nothing-like-the-spanish-flu/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mortality/why-covid-19-death-rates-are-not-what-they-seem-idUSKBN20Z281

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

Specifically, from the last link it is clear a broad spectrum of scientists have a good handle on what the known data is telling them, and a realistic outlook as to what the future holds:

While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.
Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women, elderly, those with underlying chronic medical conditions and those who are immunosuppressed. For COVID-19, our current understanding is that older age and underlying conditions increase the risk for severe infection.


Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

[beefytee]

sorry, are you serious?

No, it wasn't a serious question.

We all know the job losses will trickle down!

Sorry, I can't help myself.

[SeattleUte]

You think these outlets are lying about the UK's change in strategy? Seriously?

I am worried about you, SU. You seem unhinged.

Let's not get personal, Jeff. Stay classy.