At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[SeattleUte]

everybody is doing this. that the output of the weighting analysis is different than yours does not mean that it is not happening. by the way, what is the economic cost that your calculus relies on? it's easy to throw rocks at the epidemiological data and models because you don't like the worst case, but "substantially worse than the great depression" with risk of "future major wars"? knock it off--you're the one being apocalyptic and sentimental.

It's totally imbalanced. You're just wrong.

[wapiti]

https://www.businessinsider.com/costco-walmart-target-stop-selling-non-essential-items-select-states-2020-4?amp

Wow. Let's rope off half the store and force everyone into the food section. People actually think this is a good idea?

[old_gregg]

It's totally imbalanced. You're just wrong.

not super persuasive bro

[wapiti]

everybody is doing this. that the output of the weighting analysis is different than yours does not mean that it is not happening. by the way, what is the economic cost that your calculus relies on? it's easy to throw rocks at the epidemiological data and models because you don't like the worst case, but "substantially worse than the great depression" with risk of "future major wars"? knock it off--you're the one being apocalyptic and sentimental.

The only reason he is wrong is because of the massive stimulus that the federal reserve and federal government are throwing into the economy. Without that his comparisons might not be that far off. Nevertheless, the economic consequences are grave and, in many cases, unnecessary if the leaders just used common sense.

[old_gregg]

The only reason he is wrong is because of the massive stimulus that the federal reserve and federal government are throwing into the economy. Without that his comparisons might not be that far off. Nevertheless, the economic consequences are grave and, in many cases, unnecessary if the leaders just used common sense.

where is this causal internal link set that gets us to an indo paki nuclear war over kashmir? nobody is saying that the economic consequences are undesirable, but anybody making these types of ambitious claims needs to at least give a scenario with quantifiable consequences. to do otherwise is not helpful.

[SeattleUte]

The only reason he is wrong is because of the massive stimulus that the federal reserve and federal government are throwing into the economy. Without that his comparisons might not be that far off. Nevertheless, the economic consequences are grave and, in many cases, unnecessary if the leaders just used common sense.

The stimulus will only make it worse unless the economy pays for the hole we've dug for ourselves.

[wapiti]

where is this causal internal link set that gets us to an indo paki nuclear war over kashmir? nobody is saying that the economic consequences are undesirable, but anybody making these types of ambitious claims needs to at least give a scenario with quantifiable consequences. to do otherwise is not helpful.

The Great Depression - > Nazi Germany -> WWII (It's more complicated than that, but we're at a high level here). If Covid19 triggered a severe depression, political instability would surely follow. That's not much of a leap.

[wapiti]

The stimulus will only make it worse unless the economy pays for the hole we've dug for ourselves.

They are banking on just that. There isn't any other choice at this point.

[old_gregg]

If Covid19 triggered a severe depression

that's the whole issue--we can wring our hands all we want about economic worst case scenarios, but until there's some intellectual footwork and impact calculus done on the sets of choices, it is impossible to distinguish between alternatives. it's not helpful to say "i've read a bunch of books designed for laypeople" to think about this in a helpful way.

political instability would surely follow. That's not much of a leap.

it is a leap to say that we are headed for a global thermonuclear wwiii holocaust if people work from home for another month. we are missing data about potential outcomes.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Now imagine living in the bluest county in a blue state with a bunch of Gladys Kravitz wannabees as neighbors. The other day, one of my neighbors proudly bragged that they reported a family using the batting cage at the local little league baseball field to the police... because "practicing SOCIAL DISTANCING SO WE CAN GET BACK TO SCHOOL AND WORK AND MOST IMPORTANTLY TO KEEP OUR FAMILY MEMBERS SAFE AND HEALTHY." (caps in original)

People are insane.

The proliferation of the pejorative Karen came at a perfect time. I have no idea why people are worried about a family using a batting cage or going on a hike. So unbelievably stupid.

[wapiti]

we are missing data about potential outcomes.

We may have caused the deepest recession in 90 years with bad data.

[beefytee]

The Great Depression - > Nazi Germany -> WWII (It's more complicated than that, but we're at a high level here). If Covid19 triggered a severe depression, political instability would surely follow. That's not much of a leap.

In the vein of "covid patients were going to die anyways"...

We were already headed for war with the rise of nationalism and polarization.

[old_gregg]

We may have caused the deepest recession in 90 years with bad data.

i do not understand why this is so tedious with you guys. we are playing poker and have made decisions preflop based on available information. arguing about hypotheticals where we lose our whole bankroll without some plausible scenario where we can assess the probability of that happening is worthless.

[jay santos]

We may have caused the deepest recession in 90 years because of bad data.drama.

Bad data is one thing. But so much of what we've done has been straight up drama. People fighting over who can appear to be more caring. Leaders of government and industry being shamed into the most extreme decisions because if they don't they will be accused of being evil money grubbers. We appear to be near the peak of this thing and we're at 16K deaths. What a waste.

[Northwestcoug]

I've heard zip about the one clear path to socialism; letting all the older voters die so AOC plus 3 and others are voted in by bernie bros!