At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[CJF]

No idea - but I am a Davis County guy!!!

[SeattleUte]

I listened to Ben Shapiro this afternoon. Of course he's ultra conservative and, on the economic side, very libertarian and capitalist. You'd think he'd be concerned about the economy. He is, but he's also chill. One reason is he doesn't think Trump had any choice to do what he's done all things considered. No politician wants to be blamed for causing deaths or being callous about them. And he'd rather not criticize Trump. Also, he's willing to give it a try for a couple of weeks. He's tolerant of what governments in the west coast and northeastern states are doing.

But ultimately he knows this can't be "the new normal" or we'll just very quickly regress to the stone ages--stating the obvious--and one thing the data makes clear is that it's a specific segment of the demographic that is vulnerable and can be isolated with no hit to the economy. He talked about the UK's approach and said time will tell if we destroyed our economy for no reason.

So, what's being done now is something that can't possibly sustained. The governments might just as well as us to stop breathing. And there's no exit strategy or logical explanation for how any reduction in infections will be sustained once the restrictions are removed.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I listened to Ben Shapiro this afternoon. Of course he's ultra conservative and, on the economic side, very libertarian and capitalist. You'd think he'd be concerned about the economy. He is, but he's also chill. One reason is he doesn't think Trump had any choice to do what he's done all things considered. No politician wants to be blamed for causing deaths or being callous about them. And he'd rather not criticize Trump. Also, he's willing to give it a try for a couple of weeks. He's tolerant of what governments in the west coast and northeastern states are doing.

But ultimately he knows this can't be "the new normal" or we'll just very quickly regress to the stone ages--stating the obvious--and one thing the data makes clear is that it's a specific segment of the demographic that is vulnerable and can be isolated with no hit to the economy. He talked about the UK's approach and said time will tell if we destroyed our economy for no reason.

So, what's being done now is something that can't possibly sustained. The governments might just as well as us to stop breathing. And there's no exit strategy or logical explanation for how any reduction in infections will be sustained once the restrictions are removed.

SU, can you find a single medical expert or epidemiologist who is advocating this approach? Or who thinks it is realistic/feasible to isolate one part of society while not isolating another part? I am sure you have been looking.

Serious question. The medical experts seem to be unanimous. Maybe I have missed something.

[SeattleUte]

SU, can you find a single medical expert or epidemiologist who is advocating this approach? Or who thinks it is realistic/feasible to isolate one part of society while not isolating another part? I am sure you have been looking.

Serious question. The medical experts seem to be unanimous. Maybe I have missed something.

They are all going day to day. Find me a single person who knows what will happen after two weeks. Nobody is saying that. Show me anyone who thinks the status quo can be sustained for a month. It simply cannot. They're talking in terms of two weeks or fifteen days. Whatever the medical evidence is, the country is going to have to return to work. If not, you will see civil unrest in the extreme.

The UK is relying on medical experts. But the fact is, nobody has dealt with this before, and the hard truth is that it won't be long before the cost in human suffering and life from economic shutdown eclipses whatever Covid-19 winds up doing. Nobody has a plan B or third way because nobody really knows what to do after two weeks. But exigencies of survival will reassert themselves.

[SeattleUte]

And you're going to have the same medical challenges in two weeks or a month as you do now, except maybe for a respite for summer, as Trump has predicted.

[PaloAltoCougar]

They are all going day to day. Find me a single person who knows what will happen after two weeks. ...

I just completed my census questionnaire that includes the question, "Will you be living at this address on April 1, 2020?" Who knows, but fingers crossed.

[SeattleUte]

I just completed my census questionnaire that includes the question, "Will you be living at this address on April 1, 2020?" Who knows, but fingers crossed.

What's happened to your travel money?

[Jeff Lebowski]

They are all going day to day. Find me a single person who knows what will happen after two weeks. Nobody is saying that. Show me anyone who thinks the status quo can be sustained for a month. It simply cannot. They're talking in terms of two weeks or fifteen days. Whatever the medical evidence is, the country is going to have to return to work. If not, you will see civil unrest in the extreme.

The UK is relying on medical experts. But the fact is, nobody has dealt with this before, and the hard truth is that it won't be long before the cost in human suffering and life from economic shutdown eclipses whatever Covid-19 winds up doing. Nobody has a plan B or third way because nobody really knows what to do after two weeks. But exigencies of survival will reassert themselves.

You dodged my question. For good reason. UK's plan is getting severe backlash from scientists.

Open letter signed by 200 leading British medical experts demanding immediate social distancing

NZ scientists horrified at herd immunity strategy

Also, you are misrepresenting the UK strategy. Understandable, given that Boris botched the message.

The U.K.’s Coronavirus ‘Herd Immunity’ Debacle

The country is not aiming for 60 percent of the populace to get COVID-19, but you’d be forgiven for thinking so based on how badly the actual plan has been explained.

“People have misinterpreted the phrase herd immunity as meaning that we’re going to have an epidemic to get people infected,” says Graham Medley at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Medley chairs a group of scientists who model the spread of infectious diseases and advise the government on pandemic responses. He says that the actual goal is the same as that of other countries: flatten the curve by staggering the onset of infections.

The government’s own action plan even says that it will consider distancing measures “such as school closures, encouraging greater home working [and] reducing the number of large-scale gatherings.” “I think there will be a ramp-up of measures,” Klepac says. “Very soon, we’ll be asking people to reduce their contacts.”(Sure enough, in a press conference on Monday, Johnson said that it is time for everyone to stop non-essential contact with others, and that the government will no longer be supporting mass gatherings.)

So they are doing the same thing. Just taking a long time to do it. Good luck, Brits.

[tooblue]

Looks y'all might get your own death panels ...

At least 40 per cent of Americans will become infected by coronavirus, and then the grim choices begin

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/at-least-40-of-americans-will-become-infected-by-coronavirus-and-then-the-grim-choices-begin

In an extreme outbreak, rationing would raise tortured questions: Should someone with a terminal cancer or serious heart disease get more or less priority? Should the CEO of a hospital or a health worker be able to jump the queue? What about pregnant women? How should prisoners or undocumented immigrants be considered? All things being equal, would a lottery or coin flip be an equitable approach?

“These are really hard decisions,” said George Anesi, a critical-care specialist at the University of Pennsylvania. “In a public health emergency, you shift from a focus on individual patients to how society as a whole benefits and that’s a big change from usual care.”

[Color Me Badd Fan]

They are all going day to day. Find me a single person who knows what will happen after two weeks. Nobody is saying that. Show me anyone who thinks the status quo can be sustained for a month. It simply cannot. They're talking in terms of two weeks or fifteen days. Whatever the medical evidence is, the country is going to have to return to work. If not, you will see civil unrest in the extreme.

The UK is relying on medical experts. But the fact is, nobody has dealt with this before, and the hard truth is that it won't be long before the cost in human suffering and life from economic shutdown eclipses whatever Covid-19 winds up doing. Nobody has a plan B or third way because nobody really knows what to do after two weeks. But exigencies of survival will reassert themselves.

One thing that really can't be kept in place beyond a few weeks or a month are kids being out of school. It's not fair to the kids or single parents.

The Spanish Flu pandemic lasted for something like 18 months to two years. While this thing appears to be something like 8 to 10x more deadly than a regular flu, it disproportionately affects people who mostly don't work anymore and aren't raising kids who can self-quarantine easier than anyone else.

[SeattleUte]

You dodged my question. For good reason. UK's plan is getting severe backlash from scientists.

Open letter signed by 200 leading British medical experts demanding immediate social distancing

NZ scientists horrified at herd immunity strategy

Also, you are misrepresenting the UK strategy. Understandable, given that Boris botched the message.

The U.K.’s Coronavirus ‘Herd Immunity’ Debacle







So they are doing the same thing. Just taking a long time to do it. Good luck, Brits.

All I'm seeing here is spin and PR tit for tat. Politicians, who are all the same, are running this thing, and their motivations aren't usually in line with reason or the long-term public interest.

But you haven't answered my question. I'll tell you what it is, they're hoping the summer will rescue us, and that's probably our best hope. Note that the countries in the Southern hemisphere are doing much better. Trump may be right after all. And I bet you won't be hearing about Green New Deals again anytime soon.

[Uncle Ted]

Back to work in Wuhan, China...

Wuhan, China — Ground Zero For Coronavirus — Gets Back To Work In Preview Of What’s To Come In U.S.

The first known case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was traced to Wuhan, Hubei, China, on December 1, 2019.

That was 105 days ago. Since then, the sweep of the virus across China was devastating. In the Hubei province alone, there were 67,798 confirmed cases, according to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

But the virus — which shut down businesses and industries as it spread across China — began to level off in the Hubei province in the past couple of weeks. And while there were 3,099 deaths in Hubei, 55,094 people there recovered from the virus.

Late last week, residents of Hubei province began returning to work as factories and businesses reopened.
[...]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/wuhan-china-ground-zero-for-coronavirus-gets-back-to-work-in-preview-of-whats-to-come-in-u-s

[PaloAltoCougar]

What's happened to your travel money?

Still there, but our trip for May/June is looking mighty iffy. I'm curious how everyone else here is faring given today's nosedive. Unfortunately, a close friend who's not a lot younger than I am has always maintained a far riskier portfolio, and margin calls today have nearly wiped him out. He's seriously despondent.

[Uncle Ted]

SU should get in on this... Skipping the Animal and going straight to humans:

Coronavirus vaccine test underway as U.S. volunteer gets first shot

U.S. researchers gave the first shot to the first person in a test of an experimental coronavirus vaccine Monday — leading off a worldwide hunt for protection even as the pandemic surges.
With a careful jab in a healthy volunteer’s arm, scientists at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Research Institute in Seattle begin an anxiously awaited first-stage study of a potential COVID-19 vaccine, developed in record time after the new virus exploded from China and fanned across the globe.


“We’re team coronavirus now,” Kaiser Permanente study leader Dr. Lisa Jackson said on the eve of the experiment. “Everyone wants to do what they can in this emergency.”

The Associated Press observed as the study’s first participant, Jennifer Haller, an operations manager at a small tech company, received the injection inside an exam room. Three others were next in line for a test that would ultimately give 45 volunteers two doses, a month apart.
[...]
This vaccine candidate, code-named mRNA-1273, was developed by the NIH and Massachusetts-based biotechnology company Moderna Inc. There’s no chance participants can get infected from the shots because they don’t contain the coronavirus itself.


It’s not the only potential vaccine in the pipeline. Dozens of research groups around the world are racing to create a vaccine against COVID-19. Another candidate, made by Inovio Pharmaceuticals, is expected to begin its own safety study — in the U.S., China and South Korea — next month.
[...]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-16/coronavirus-vaccine-test-opens-as-us-volunteer-gets-1st-shot

[BigPiney]

My son is contemplating running USATF and jr Olympics unattached this summer to at least get some payoff for his training.

It seems like the best we can hope for is that by the time CIF starts in May this might be able to be resumed. Maybe no meets just league finals and CIF, masters and state in May/June.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

We are looking at that as well. Friend of ours just activated the local USATF club on Saturday so that my daughter and her teammate can join it. So there will probably be two members in the entire club.

But anything to get some races in. She was texting with her biggest rival in the 800 today in our CIF section.They are going to get together and race at some point, just to do it. Will probably be at the end of April or later. They are thinking of contacting some of the other girls in the section, many who placed at state last year, and trying to get people together for a meet.

JO is a good option, but in her distances it was pretty slow last year.