Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[myboynoah]

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He died.

[myboynoah]

Well, this is interesting. Not too surprising though.

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No doubt this is happening. Good for us (and other European intel orgs).

[Goatnapper'96]

Russians are taking territory very slowly with mass human wave tactics in some Donbass areas-Bahkmut being the most notable. These areas are of limited tactical value and are coming at a huge cost in human lives. While morbid to watch - it is interesting to see how long the Russian people will stand enough with Putin for this to continue. British intelligence is reporting that the losses since the Russians began these "offensives"- sometime in January '23 are the highest it has been since the war started with reports indicating the Russians are losing up to 1000 soldiers per day. I know that is their style of fighting, but eventually there will either be a revolt or they will run out of bodies. It is hard to predict what a foreign culture might do based upon information you think you have-but I tend to believe that Putin is pushing as much as he can for as much territory as he can grab before Ukraine, and its superior mounted forces, begin an offensive sometime this spring once the land has dried up and all the new Western tanks are integrated into an effective combat army. I expect Putin to sue for peace then claiming victory in his liberation of territory with sizable Russian ethnic populations and hope the Western resolve for the fight will dissipate and leave Ukraine with ebbing support.

The Russians tried a mounted offensive near Vuldehar, or something that starts with a V, and reports are an entire brigade was summarily annihilated. The loss of potentially 5000 Russian soldiers with almost no loss to Ukraine. During the winter this fight has been on the most favorable of terms for Russia. Ukraine is gathering combat forces, attriting Russian forces and gathering as much Western state of the art combat platforms as they can. Putin has to know what is coming-perhaps he doesn't and he is still as clueless about what he is facing. Expert intelligence says Russia is facing a huge decision of where to beef up defenses. Once Ukraine is outfitted with all their Western tanks and FVs (fighting vehicles) they could simultaneously attack in the eastern Donbass as well as Zazaphoria pushing to Melitopol and cut off the Crimean peninsula land route to Russia. Experts seem to believe that the state of Russian conscripts and their continual ineptness at mounted maneuver indicate they can probably only reinforce one axis or the other adequately.

I don't know the exact timelines but I would think that Ukraine ought to be able to start putting serious mounted maneuver pressure on the Russians in about 2 more months. Putin probably has until then to seize as much extra territory as he can because once the Leopards and M1s start rolling he is likely to start losing land.

[Goatnapper'96]

Couple of things to remember-IMO and others could chime in but most of the FVs the West is providing Russia, German Marders and US Bradley's mostly, are likely both more lethal and survivable than likely all but the most modern of Russian tanks. Bradleys were crushing everything up through T-72 in both Gulf Wars. Now the export models the Gawdless Commies sent to Iraq might not be the same ones the Russians have on hand-but my guess is their current armor inventory is scraping the barrel with their own shitty stuff. Not only are the Leopards, Challengers and M1s far superior but Ukraine will reek havoc on Russian armor in Bradley's and Marders as well.

[Bo Diddley]

Russians are taking territory very slowly with mass human wave tactics in some Donbass areas-Bahkmut being the most notable. These areas are of limited tactical value and are coming at a huge cost in human lives. While morbid to watch - it is interesting to see how long the Russian people will stand enough with Putin for this to continue. British intelligence is reporting that the losses since the Russians began these "offensives"- sometime in January '23 are the highest it has been since the war started with reports indicating the Russians are losing up to 1000 soldiers per day. I know that is their style of fighting, but eventually there will either be a revolt or they will run out of bodies. It is hard to predict what a foreign culture might do based upon information you think you have-but I tend to believe that Putin is pushing as much as he can for as much territory as he can grab before Ukraine, and its superior mounted forces, begin an offensive sometime this spring once the land has dried up and all the new Western tanks are integrated into an effective combat army. I expect Putin to sue for peace then claiming victory in his liberation of territory with sizable Russian ethnic populations and hope the Western resolve for the fight will dissipate and leave Ukraine with ebbing support.

The Russians tried a mounted offensive near Vuldehar, or something that starts with a V, and reports are an entire brigade was summarily annihilated. The loss of potentially 5000 Russian soldiers with almost no loss to Ukraine. During the winter this fight has been on the most favorable of terms for Russia. Ukraine is gathering combat forces, attriting Russian forces and gathering as much Western state of the art combat platforms as they can. Putin has to know what is coming-perhaps he doesn't and he is still as clueless about what he is facing. Expert intelligence says Russia is facing a huge decision of where to beef up defenses. Once Ukraine is outfitted with all their Western tanks and FVs (fighting vehicles) they could simultaneously attack in the eastern Donbass as well as Zazaphoria pushing to Melitopol and cut off the Crimean peninsula land route to Russia. Experts seem to believe that the state of Russian conscripts and their continual ineptness at mounted maneuver indicate they can probably only reinforce one axis or the other adequately.

I don't know the exact timelines but I would think that Ukraine ought to be able to start putting serious mounted maneuver pressure on the Russians in about 2 more months. Putin probably has until then to seize as much extra territory as he can because once the Leopards and M1s start rolling he is likely to start losing land.

I was reading on BBC News that Ukraine is still losing a lot of soldiers too. It's not completely one-sided. I'm not sure what that means overall, but it did make me wonder if Russia could bleed Ukraine's Army out. Likely not, with the ongoing support they're receiving from the West, but I'm just not sure on the math. I really like your take though, so I'm praying for the best.

[Goatnapper'96]

I was reading on BBC News that Ukraine is still losing a lot of soldiers too. It's not completely one-sided. I'm not sure what that means overall, but it did make me wonder if Russia could bleed Ukraine's Army out. Likely not, with the ongoing support they're receiving from the West, but I'm just not sure on the math. I really like your take though, so I'm praying for the best.

I just cannot see the Ukrainians being dumb enough to lose such a significant amount of manpower over an area as tactically unimportant as Bahkmut. I tend to believe they are fighting a classical economy of force mission there where they are dedicating enough manpower to attrit the Russians to the maximum point they can without having to dedicate enough resources to Bahkmut that jeopardizes their capacity to counter-attack this spring in the Northern Donbass or Zazophoria fronts.

I think Ukraine is treating Bahkmut as a hunting expedition and collectively realizes it is a battle they will lose, at least the territory, but by making the cost in soldiers lives high enough for Russia it will be a Pyrrhic victory.

[myboynoah]

Couple of things to remember-IMO and others could chime in but most of the FVs the West is providing Russia, German Marders and US Bradley's mostly, are likely both more lethal and survivable than likely all but the most modern of Russian tanks. Bradleys were crushing everything up through T-72 in both Gulf Wars. Now the export models the Gawdless Commies sent to Iraq might not be the same ones the Russians have on hand-but my guess is their current armor inventory is scraping the barrel with their own shitty stuff. Not only are the Leopards, Challengers and M1s far superior but Ukraine will reek havoc on Russian armor in Bradley's and Marders as well.

You're reading my mind. I was was going to reply to you informative post above with a question about this and the effectiveness of Bradleys against Russian armor. Thank you!

[myboynoah]

I know they're unarmed, but this looks yikers.

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[Bo Diddley]

I know they're unarmed, but this looks yikers.

What could go wrong?

[Bo Diddley]

Wow. Biden just visited with Zelensky in Kyiv.

[Eddie]

Wow. Biden just visited with Zelensky in Kyiv.

And - reports are they warned Russia that he was going to visit for "deconfliction purposes".

Interesting choice. Russia clearly isn't happy with the support the west is giving Ukraine. There's no way they would be happy with a US President visiting Zelensky there. I'm kind of surprised Russia didn't say "hey - this is a war zone and we aren't going to stop fighting on your behalf, but you do you."

[Non Sequitur]

And - reports are they warned Russia that he was going to visit for "deconfliction purposes".

Interesting choice. Russia clearly isn't happy with the support the west is giving Ukraine. There's no way they would be happy with a US President visiting Zelensky there. I'm kind of surprised Russia didn't say "hey - this is a war zone and we aren't going to stop fighting on your behalf, but you do you."

It makes sense for us to warn Russia that Biden will be in Kyiv. That last thing Putin needs is to accidently endanger Biden's life. He can't afford to escalate the war. What's funny is that although giving Russia a heads-up is probably standard procedure, the only way the press would know about the heads-up is if were leaked. Which it was. It was an eff-you to Putin. Not only did we tell Putin where and when Biden was going to visit Zelensky, we told the world that we were daring Putin to do something about it.

[Bo Diddley]

It makes sense for us to warn Russia that Biden will be in Kyiv. That last thing Putin needs is to accidently endanger Biden's life. He can't afford to escalate the war. What's funny is that although giving Russia a heads-up is probably standard procedure, the only way the press would know about the heads-up is if were leaked. Which it was. It was an eff-you to Putin. Not only did we tell Putin where and when Biden was going to visit Zelensky, we told the world that we were daring Putin to do something about it.

True. He looks weak.

[Uncle Ted]

And - reports are they warned Russia that he was going to visit for "deconfliction purposes".

Interesting choice. Russia clearly isn't happy with the support the west is giving Ukraine. There's no way they would be happy with a US President visiting Zelensky there. I'm kind of surprised Russia didn't say "hey - this is a war zone and we aren't going to stop fighting on your behalf, but you do you."

So those air sirens going off in the background were all staged?

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[tooblue]

So those air sirens going off in the background were all staged?

So, he didn't go to Ukraine? It was all staged like the moon landings?