Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Jeff Lebowski]

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[wuapinmon]

wuap, half the telegram links you post don't work for me. What's the trick if it says "media too big, view in telegram?" I click on that and it just opens another page with the same thing.

if that’s the case, install Unigram. It solves all my Telegram problems. Like everything these days, they want you on their app.

[wuapinmon]

Linky no worky

You need to install Unigram. The link works fine on PC, iPad, and google pixel for me. Unigram is on PC, use Telegram’s app on devices.

[wuapinmon]

Not at all the same type or scale of action, but it reminds me of when the Chinese Nationalist leaders blew up Yellow River dikes in 1938 to thwart the advance of the Japanese invaders. The flooding drowned a half million Chinese and left another three million homeless, perhaps accelerating the rise of Chinese communism.

Agreed. Also, though not a war, check out Orleans parish dynamiting the levees in St Bernard parish during the 1927 flood.

[wuapinmon]

I slept in today. My first thought on waking was, "what if Putin got removed from power overnight and I missed it." No such luck, but it looks like the Brits got some good news.

[wuapinmon]

This could be fake, but it's still cool:
https://t.me/killpukin/11487

[wuapinmon]

Russian attacks are taking a toll on the energy infrastructure. Due to increased demand, there are now rolling blackouts in central Ukraine: https://t.me/znua_live/62040

Ukraine energy saving.JPG

[wuapinmon]

‼️Москалики вирішили піти в наступ. Не фартануло ????♂️

https://t.me/operativnoZSU

WARNING: SHOWS CASUALTIES:

Link goes to what appears to be GoPro/headcam footage from a Russian unit sallying to attack. They take either small arms fire or some kind of mortar, resulting in at least one person wounded on camera. They get pinned down, and the cameraman fires his LMG (not sure what kind, maybe a PK). Fairly intense combat footage.

[wuapinmon]

WARNING: PROBABLE DEATH SHOWN

Drone follows Russian at a checkpoint back to bunker, drops grenade, he's wounded and slowly collapses. Mute the audio, it's just some shitty instrumental dance music.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...its_a_russian/

[wuapinmon]

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ent-october-19

Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in Kherson Oblast. Commander of Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergey Surovikin reported during an appearance on Russian television that the Russian military leadership has to make “difficult decisions” regarding Kherson Oblast and accused Ukraine of planning to strike civilian and residential infrastructure in Kherson Oblast.[1] Kherson Occupation Head Vladimir Saldo relatedly noted that his administration is evacuating the west bank of the Dnipro River in anticipation of a “large-scale” Ukrainian offensive.[2] Surovikin‘s and Saldo’s statements are likely attempts to set information conditions for a full Russian retreat across the Dnipro River, which would cede Kherson City and other significant territory in Kherson Oblast to advancing Ukrainian troops. Russian military leaders have evidently learned from previous informational and operational failures during the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast and are therefore likely attempting to mitigate the informational and operational consequences of failing to defend against another successful Ukrainian advance.

Russian forces are also setting information conditions to conduct a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP). The Russian military may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river. Surovikin claimed on October 18 that he has received information that Kyiv intends to strike the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), which he alleged would cause destructive flooding in Kherson Oblast.[3] Saldo echoed this claim and warned that Ukrainian forces intend to strike dams upstream of Kherson City.[4] Russian authorities likely intend these warnings about a purported Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka HPP to set information conditions for Russian forces to damage the dam and blame Ukraine for the subsequent damage and loss of life, all while using the resulting floods to cover their own retreat further south into Kherson Oblast. The Kremlin could attempt to leverage such a false-flag attack to overshadow the news of a third humiliating retreat for Russian forces, this time from western Kherson. Such an attack would also further the false Russian information operation portraying Ukraine as a terrorist state that deliberately targets civilians.

[wuapinmon]

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[wuapinmon]

This is an interpretive post of something I've been thinking about. If there are any flaws in my thinking, please don't hesitate to point them out.

Despite the constant destruction of Russian artillery, note this live map showing the breadth of Russian artillery attacks all along the front, with breaks only where bodies of water or other natural barriers prevent maneuvers between them.

Russian artillery strikes on front 10-20-22.JPG

So, if we try and estimate the 1,646 artillery that the Ministry of Defense claims to have destroyed, we can confirm some of them through Oryx's incredible work documenting equipment losses on both sides (I have to post this info in another post because of the vBulletin character limit per post; these links should work, if you're curious). https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

These photographically-confirmed numbers surely are low compared to actual losses of which there isn't yet or never will be photographic evidence of their destruction. If we throw in the artillery support vehicles (I didn't copy over those), then we've got 582 artillery units confirmed destroyed; they're claiming 3x that, which I can believe. We're not letting them release Switchblade footage, Turkey has to approve Bayraktar release, and the Russians aren't going to post about their losses, miles from the front.

In spite of all of this destruction, there are two thoughts that come to mind:

1. The Cold War stockpiles of arms and ammunition are incredible. It's estimated that Russia still has over 13,000 artillery system warehoused with around 1.5 million tons of ammunition in reserve. That means that Ukraine hasn't really even destroyed 10% of possible Russian artillery.

2. Most of Ukraine's original artillery from the beginning of the war was Soviet tech. There are no factories in Ukraine to manufacture new shells. Russia is firing around 20,000 per day and Ukraine about 6,000. Ukraine also must contend with the multiple systems that have been given to them by NATO and former Warsaw Pact nations. The logistics of making sure that each unit has the right ammunition at the right time and place, especially given the rapid advances that sometimes occur, is impressive. I imagine that supply-chain researchers are getting reams of data from this war and the global nature of the weapons heading to both sides, victim and belligerent. That makes those captures of abandoned munitions very, very useful for Ukraine, because suddenly they can get weapons without any ammo back into the game. And, hey, free ammo.

[wuapinmon]

Heavy Mortars (23, of which destroyed: 10, captured: 13)

• 11 120mm 2B11/2S12: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, 6 and 7, captured)
• 6 120mm 2B11/2S12A: (1 and 2, destroyed) (3, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured)
• 4 2B9 Vasilek 82mm automatic gun mortar: (1, destroyed) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured)
• 2 Unknown heavy mortar: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)

Towed Artillery (120, of which destroyed: 43, damaged: 7, abandoned: 5, captured: 65)

• 6 100mm MT-12 anti-tank gun: (1, destroyed) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured)
• 9 120mm 2B16 Nona-K howitzer: (1, destroyed) (1, abandoned) (2, abandoned) (1, damaged and captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured)
• 32 122mm D-30 howitzer: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (1, abandoned) (2, abandoned) (1, 2, 3 and 4, captured) (5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15, captured) (16, 17, 18 and 19, captured) (20, captured) (21, captured) (22, captured) (23, captured) (24, captured) (25, captured) (26, damaged and captured) (27, captured)
• 5 152mm D-20 gun-howitzer: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (1, damaged) (1, captured) (2, captured)
• 57 152mm 2A65 Msta-B howitzer: (1, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (2, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (3, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (4, 5, 6 and 7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10 and 11, destroyed) (12, destroyed) (13, destroyed) (14, destroyed) (15 and 16, destroyed) (17 and 18, destroyed) (19, destroyed) (20, destroyed) (21, destroyed) (22, 23 and 24, destroyed) (25, destroyed) (26, destroyed) (27, destroyed) (28, destroyed) (1, damaged by Bayraktar TB2) (2, damaged by Bayraktar TB2) (3 and 4, damaged) (5, damaged) (1, abandoned) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured) (7, captured) (8, captured) (9, captured) (10, captured) (11, damaged and captured) (12, captured) (13, captured) (14, captured) (15, captured) (16 and 17, captured) (18, captured) (19, captured) (20, captured) (21, captured) (22, captured) (23, damaged and captured)
• 6 152mm 2A36 Giatsint-B: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (1, damaged) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured)
• 4 Unknown towed artillery: (1, destroyed) (2 and 3, destroyed) (4, destroyed)

[wuapinmon]

Multiple Rocket Launchers (143, of which destroyed: 90, damaged: 1, abandoned: 2, captured: 50)

• 86 122mm BM-21 Grad: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, 8 and 9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, destroyed) (12, destroyed) (13, destroyed) (14 and 15, destroyed) (16, destroyed) (17, destroyed) (18, destroyed) (19, 20, 21 and 22, destroyed) (23, 24, 25, 26, 27 and 28, destroyed) (29 and 30, destroyed) (31, destroyed) (32, destroyed) (33, destroyed) (34, abandoned and destroyed) (35, destroyed) (36, destroyed) (37, destroyed) (38, destroyed) (39, destroyed) (40 and 41, destroyed) (42, 43, 44 and 45, destroyed) (46, destroyed) (47, destroyed) (48, destroyed) (49, destroyed) (1, damaged) (1, abandoned) (2, abandoned) (1, captured) (2, damaged and captured) (3, damaged and captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured) (7, captured) (8, captured) (9, captured) (10, captured) (11, captured) (12, captured) (13, captured) (14, captured) (15, captured) (16, captured) (17 and 18, captured) (19, captured) (20, captured) (21, damaged and captured) (22, damaged and captured) (23, captured) (24, captured) (25, captured) (26, captured) (27, captured) (28, captured) (29 and 30, captured) (31, captured) (32, captured) (33, damaged and captured) (34, captured)
• 38 220mm BM-27 Uragan: (1, destroyed by Bayraktar TB2) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, 6 and 7, destroyed) (8 and 9, destroyed) (10, destroyed) (11, destroyed) (12 and 13, destroyed) (14, destroyed) (15, destroyed) (16, captured and destroyed) (17, captured and destroyed) (18, destroyed) (19, destroyed) (20, destroyed) (21, destroyed) (22, destroyed) (23, destroyed) (24, destroyed) (25, 26 and 27, destroyed) (28, destroyed) (29, destroyed) (30 and 31, destroyed) (32, destroyed) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured)
• 1 300mm BM-31 Smerch: (1, destroyed)
• 12 122mm 2B17 Tornado-G: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured) (7, damaged and captured)
• 5 220mm TOS-1A: (1, destroyed) (1, damaged and captured) (2, damaged and captured) (3, captured) (4, captured)
• 2 Unknown MRL: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed)

[wuapinmon]

Self-Propelled Artillery (247, of which destroyed: 130, damaged: 6, abandoned: 13, captured: 98)

• 13 120mm 2S9 Nona: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (1, abandoned) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured)
• 3 120mm 2S23 Nona-SVK: (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured)
• 2 120mm 2S34 Khosta: (1, captured) (2, captured)
• 27 122mm 2S1 Gvozdika: (1, destroyed) (2, destroyed) (3, destroyed) (4, destroyed) (5, destroyed) (6, destroyed) (7, destroyed) (8, destroyed) (9, destroyed) (10, 11, 12 and 13, destroyed) (14, 15 and 16, destroyed) (17, destroyed) (18, destroyed) (1 and 2, damaged and abandoned) (3, abandoned) (1, captured) (2, captured) (3, captured) (4, captured) (5, captured) (6, captured)