2024 Presidential Election Thread

[Commando]

I hope you are right (either a sound defeat or a stroke). I do think/hope he will lose, but it’s going to be too close for comfort. It just feels like a chunk of independents won’t show up this time.

I just think Trump crowds further and further and further the right extreme of the spectrum. Is there anybody in the middle at all that would consider voting for Trump, other than maybe the delusional people still burning a candle for the Party of Reagan?

[fusnik]

I think he loses badly this time. Biden is a walking corpse, but I think it will be really tough for Trump to win enough independents. After losing, he will once again claim that he really won and we will probably see another January 6th. Wouldn't surprise me if he ran again 2028. OK, it would surprise me some, but anything is possible these days.

Still rooting for the stroke.

If he has a stroke people will think he was assassinated.

Tucker already floated this idea in multiple interviews.

[Northwestcoug]

I just think Trump crowds further and further and further the right extreme of the spectrum. Is there anybody in the middle at all that would consider voting for Trump, other than maybe the delusional people still burning a candle for the Party of Reagan?

Honestly I think it’s a huge unknown. And if I look at how Trump is starting to pile up the endorsements from GOP offficials? To modify a Qanon phrase, where the GOP goes the voters go also. Look at the margin of Biden’s victory in purple states. It wouldn’t take a lot of independents sitting out to erase those past victories.

yes, I hope a good proportion of historical GOP voters either sit out or vote for anyone but Trump. Is it going to happen in a proportion that would offset independents sitting out? We will see.

[beefytee]

A lot can happen between now and November. The economy and public outlook currently looks good for Biden, but plenty can happen between now and then. I will not be shocked if Trump wins, even if I don't expect him to right now.

[Commando]

If he has a stroke people will think he was assassinated.

Tucker already floated this idea in multiple interviews.

Have you seen the most recent clips of Trump mumbling and bumbling at the mic? Not a gaffe -- just almost Mitch McConnel level of incoherence. Dude is not long for this campaign, not sadly.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Have you seen the most recent clips of Trump mumbling and bumbling at the mic? Not a gaffe -- just almost Mitch McConnel level of incoherence. Dude is not long for this campaign, not sadly.

The Biden-Trump debates are going to be amazing.



EDIT: can you imagine Gavin Newsom debating Trump? That would be so much fun.

[fusnik]

The Biden-Trump debates are going to be amazing.



EDIT: can you imagine Gavin Newsom debating Trump? That would be so much fun.

Are there going to be debates?

Trump didn’t do the GOP debates, he tried to kill Biden with Covid last go around, and we all know where they stand, what’s the point?

[Commando]

The Biden-Trump debates are going to be amazing.



EDIT: can you imagine Gavin Newsom debating Trump? That would be so much fun.

Yeah I don't believe that's gonna happen. On one hand, it's the most honest thing about Trump, how he's dropping the pretext that he has anything to say or present to the American people about why he's a good choice for president. But by the same token, it's the most shameless thing about him and the biggest flashing sign that he's just a demagogue doing what he can to grab his power back. He already has his voters in hand-- it's just a matter of whether that can overcome his opposition.

[USUC]

I just think Trump crowds further and further and further the right extreme of the spectrum. Is there anybody in the middle at all that would consider voting for Trump, other than maybe the delusional people still burning a candle for the Party of Reagan?

I am fairly certain Biden will be reelected, but it's close enough that a mistep from him could put Trump in. We are all in the moment and working off of an outdated understanding of the voting public, which we won't truly know until next year. This isn't the GOP of the 90s and 00s. A lot of the "smart" normies have left the party, and the working class, "under-educated", and policy disinterested have moved in to replace them. The independents who also match this description will determine if Trump is elected. Keep an eye out for poor "minorities" as well. It's really easy to just chalk up Trump's popularity to racism, homophobia, and hate. But it most certainly is something much broader. It's no doubt reactionary. I beleive it's power lies in the conflict over the DEI-ification (for lack of a better term. Its much larger than just DEI) of the broader culture. It's just seems to me that it's not a coincidence that the craziness on the right corresponds with the rise of this cultural phenomenon on the left. I think the power of DEI is overblown and most people roll their eyes at it (like i do. I have mandatory DEI training every year and have monthly meetings where 10 minutes of it is devoted to it). But the DEI proponents have done a great job of broadcasting their intentions and desires. It's easy to see it as an elite group demanding exclusive fealty to a privileged worldview that the working class can't begin to comprehend. And it's tied exclusively to Democrats. The working class is the wildcard in whether Trump beats Biden.

[Commando]

I am fairly certain Biden will be reelected, but it's close enough that a mistep from him could put Trump in. We are all in the moment and working off of an outdated understanding of the voting public, which we won't truly know until next year. This isn't the GOP of the 90s and 00s. A lot of the "smart" normies have left the party, and the working class, "under-educated", and policy disinterested have moved in to replace them. The independents who also match this description will determine if Trump is elected. Keep an eye out for poor "minorities" as well. It's really easy to just chalk up Trump's popularity to racism, homophobia, and hate. But it most certainly is something much broader. It's no doubt reactionary. I beleive its power lies in the conflict over the DEI-ification (for lack of a better term. It's much larger than just DEI) of the broader culture. It's just seems to me that it's not a coincidence that the craziness on the right corresponds with the rise of this cultural phenomenon on the left. I think the power of DEI is overblown and most people roll their eyes at it (like i do. I have mandatory DEI training every year and have monthly meetings where 10 minutes of it is devoted to it). But the DEI proponents have done a great job of broadcasting their intentions and desires. It's easy to see it as an elite group demanding exclusive fealty to a privileged worldview that the working class can't begin to comprehend. The working class is the wildcard in whether Trump beats Biden.

All this is true, but I think a lot of it boils down to a wildly disengaged electorate. There are so many people just unaware or apathetic about Trump's... issues. They'll vote for him if they hear the right public endorsement like Joe Rogan or whomever. And so many people are just affected by the nonstop barrage of attacks on Joe Biden by Trump's media surrogates. If you turn on Fox it's absolutely comical how rabidly they attack every. single. thing he does. I think when it becomes clear what Trump is up to as voting time comes around, people will turn up to put an end to him.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Are there going to be debates?

Trump didn’t do the GOP debates, he tried to kill Biden with Covid last go around, and we all know where they stand, what’s the point?

Yeah, you are probably right.

[USUC]

All this is true, but I think a lot of it boils down to a wildly disengaged electorate. There are so many people just unaware or apathetic about Trump's... issues. They'll vote for him if they hear the right public endorsement like Joe Rogan or whomever. And so many people are just affected by the nonstop barrage of attacks on Joe Biden by Trump's media surrogates. If you turn on Fox it's absolutely comical how rabidly they attack every. single. thing he does. I think when it becomes clear what Trump is up to as voting time comes around, people will turn up to put an end to him.

I suspect this will end up happening, but I'm not sure media will have much of an effect either way. Anyone who watches Fox News will vote for Trump. Anyone who watches CNN/NBC or reads NYT will vote Biden. I think something like immigration could hurt Biden as the problem is being distributed to other states now. If Biden can pull of a basement campaign again it will work in his favor and I'm sure that will be their strategy. I'm just not sure it will work this time around and that worries me.

[Commando]

The immigration thing is evil genius by the GOP. Trump bottlenecks southern migration at the border for the last year of his presidency during covid and then by the time the new administration gets around to untangling it, wow there is a surge of migrants-- didn't see that coming! Cue the fainting couches and the clutching pearls by a very vocal GOP who made little photo op trips to the border and who absolutely will not legislate any help or solutions until after the election. Abbot in Texas grandstanding by sending troops to the border and obstructing CBP from doing its job, allowing some little kids to drown in the Rio Grande. What a political statement to make to the white nationalist base. Just a dogshit-ass party all the way around. You all know how I feel...

[USUC]

The immigration thing is evil genius by the GOP. Trump bottlenecks southern migration at the border for the last year of his presidency during covid and then by the time the new administration gets around to untangling it, wow there is a surge of migrants-- didn't see that coming! Cue the fainting couches and the clutching pearls by a very vocal GOP who made little photo op trips to the border and who absolutely will not legislate any help or solutions until after the election. Abbot in Texas grandstanding by sending troops to the border and obstructing CBP from doing its job, allowing some little kids to drown in the Rio Grande. What a political statement to make to the white nationalist base. Just a dogshit-ass party all the way around. You all know how I feel...

If you don't see immigration as a salient issue and a problem for a lot of states, you have your head in the ground. You can't blame Trump for this problem in year 4 of your presidency.

[Commando]

If you don't see immigration as a salient issue and a problem for a lot of states, you have your head in the ground. You can't blame Trump for this problem in year 4 of your presidency.

No, since it's been a problem for decades that zero politicians have the political will to address. But now blaming Biden for it is just as funny. The surge is 100% on Trump and Biden's problem is he still wants to offer an olive branch to the anti-immigrant crowd and hasn't done anything about it. That's a problem for me as much as it is for anyone else, but not something to get me to consider Trump for even half of a second.