The Big 12 expansion groundswell

[fusnik]

I think you tipped your hand here that the last few page of this thread have been a big troll. You can't preach about how revenue drives everything for a dozen posts and the SEC/B1G should kick out their dead weight but then say the Pac12 is the best conference ever because they are super good at water polo, swimming and softball, and if they can fold everyone is doomed. No one is disputing the conference of champions indeed has won a lot of national championships in a lot of sports. But the truth is in the sports that drive revenue, the Pac 12 has been on average pretty awful ever since Vince Young broke DDD's heart. The Big 12 has backwater schools but those backwaters also have large passionate fanbases that won't won't get them into the B1G/SEC club but will keep them competitive. Football isn't going away in the NortheastMidwest, and considering the challenges facing outsiders, I like the Big12's chances to compete going forward.

Side note: I'm a little surprised the value of these TV contracts continues to skyrocket. I'm not convinced this is sustainable in the age of cord-cutting. I am one who thinks two superconferences are possible but not inevitable. If TV money ever peaks due to regionalization of football interest and general cord cutting, I think it is more likely a few heavyweights forge their own individual football contracts than conferences boot out their lowest-rated teams.

The P12 is the best athletic conference ever. I’m assuming they’ll cobble together a P12 of Olympic sports and continue being the conference of champions.

As for football, like I said cultural shifts and COVID killed the P12 football conference. Media/television rights are driving the destruction of the other non B1G/SEC conferences.

Unless there is a major intervention we were headed to 2 super conferences, is this really hard to see?

I get the myopic BYU centric view and the glee associated with getting into the B12 but without Texas and Oklahoma it’s a mid major.

[fusnik]

And yet, they can't seem to muster a decent media rights offer. Hmm....



Obviously you weren't paying attention last year. Not remotely true.



This is circular logic.

The P12 football conference is dead unless Newsome blocks UCLA and they can poach 4-5 schools from the B12/ACC.

Last year was the exception not the rule, P12 over the last 25 years has consistently had 4 top 15 teams in its conference by year, by decade, over they time period.

Im not a P12 homer, but historically they’ve been incredible. We all would have sacrificed a lot to get into the P12 when Utah did.

[Flystripper]

I think you tipped your hand here that the last few page of this thread have been a big troll. You can't preach about how revenue drives everything for a dozen posts and the SEC/B1G should kick out their dead weight but then say the Pac12 is the best conference ever because they are super good at water polo, swimming and softball, and if they can fold everyone is doomed. No one is disputing the conference of champions indeed has won a lot of national championships in a lot of sports. But the truth is in the sports that drive revenue, the Pac 12 has been on average pretty awful ever since Vince Young broke DDD's heart. The Big 12 has backwater schools but those backwaters also have large passionate fanbases that won't won't get them into the B1G/SEC club but will keep them competitive. Football isn't going away in the NortheastMidwest, and considering the challenges facing outsiders, I like the Big12's chances to compete going forward.

Side note: I'm a little surprised the value of these TV contracts continues to skyrocket. I'm not convinced this is sustainable in the age of cord-cutting. I am one who thinks two superconferences are possible but not inevitable. If TV money ever peaks due to regionalization of football interest and general cord cutting, I think it is more likely a few heavyweights forge their own individual football contracts than conferences boot out their lowest-rated teams.

In the age of cord cutting live sports is the only thing that has meaningful value to advertisers/sponsors. The reason why the rights deals continue to skyrocket is because Amazon and Apple are now dipping their toes in the market and 1 billion dollar deals are only slightly more than a rounding error on their financials.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I think you tipped your hand here that the last few page of this thread have been a big troll. You can't preach about how revenue drives everything for a dozen posts and the SEC/B1G should kick out their dead weight but then say the Pac12 is the best conference ever because they are super good at water polo, swimming and softball, and if they can fold everyone is doomed. No one is disputing the conference of champions indeed has won a lot of national championships in a lot of sports. But the truth is in the sports that drive revenue, the Pac 12 has been on average pretty awful ever since Vince Young broke DDD's heart. The Big 12 has backwater schools but those backwaters also have large passionate fanbases that won't won't get them into the B1G/SEC club but will keep them competitive. Football isn't going away in the NortheastMidwest, and considering the challenges facing outsiders, I like the Big12's chances to compete going forward.

Side note: I'm a little surprised the value of these TV contracts continues to skyrocket. I'm not convinced this is sustainable in the age of cord-cutting. I am one who thinks two superconferences are possible but not inevitable. If TV money ever peaks due to regionalization of football interest and general cord cutting, I think it is more likely a few heavyweights forge their own individual football contracts than conferences boot out their lowest-rated teams.

Fusnik, this is what a rational take looks like.

[fusnik]

Fusnik, this is what a rational take looks like.

Lol you think I’m not being rational?

I’ve been saying for 2-3 years at least that NCAA football is headed for contraction.

Frankly it seems way worse for the folks ok the outside than I thought it was going to be.

[fusnik]

In the age of cord cutting live sports is the only thing that has meaningful value to advertisers/sponsors. The reason why the rights deals continue to skyrocket is because Amazon and Apple are now dipping their toes in the market and 1 billion dollar deals are only slightly more than a rounding error on their financials.

It’s the only captured audience it’s the only place where people are going to advertise on television going forward. It’s not that hard to realize this.

[Uncle Ted]

Good catch. Football is increasingly becoming a red state/heartland sport. Which partly explains why the P12 is dying.

Yeah, PAC12 country doesn't get it... Let them die.

[Moliere]

So the SEC should kick out Mississippi State and one of the big 2 conferences should consider adding Uriah because it’s in a big market? Wow, remind me to never let fusnik lead negotiations on anything unless I’m in the other end.

[Uncle Ted]

Let me be the first to welcome our Arizona brothers to the Big 12...

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Now go and get Colorado and SDSU to partake.

[Omaha 680]

In the age of cord cutting live sports is the only thing that has meaningful value to advertisers/sponsors. The reason why the rights deals continue to skyrocket is because Amazon and Apple are now dipping their toes in the market and 1 billion dollar deals are only slightly more than a rounding error on their financials.

Absolutely agree; I am one of those captive viewers who can't fully cut the cord because of my love of live sports, in particular football. But only a small percentage of sports fans will pay any price to get all the sports. As rates continue to increase, more invested levels of sports fans will choose at what price point they are willing to be held captive and what sports/teams truly matter for them to pay for. I was a college football nut most of my life, but recently finally cut cable in favor of Sling even though I will not get all the games I really want to see. Point is I don't see sports fans as an unlimited source of ad revenue that can always be tapped to continue to run these contracts higher every cycle.

[myboynoah]

Two super duper conferences limited to a total of 40-50 schools is dumb and unsustainable. This is not the NFL. If one's school does not have access to a championship, especially if they had it before, people will simply quit watching. People feel loyalty to their schools. If you kick out Miss State or Purdue, those fans are not going to simply migrate over to being Ole Miss or IU fans.

I suspect we will settle into three large conferences that will include most of the schools that want to and are willing to dedicate the resources needed to compete at the top level and have some expectation of making some form of a playoff. Otherwise, this whole thing falls apart.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Two super double conferences limite to a total of 40-50 schools is dumb and unsustainable. This is not the NFL. If one's school does not have access to a championship, especially if they had it before, people will simply quit watching. People feel loyalty to their schools. If you kick out Miss State or Purdue, those fans are not going to simply migrate over to being Ole Miss or IU fans.

I suspect we will settle into three large conferences that will include most of the schools that want to and are willing to dedicate the resources needed to compete at the top level and have some expectation of making some form of a playoff. Otherwise, this whole thing falls apart.

Exactly. You cut out too many schools/regions and you kill your customer base. You think if most of the California schools (insert your favorite region) get completely left out that their fans are going to tune in to B1G/SEC games each week? gtfo.

[Applejack]

The P12 with all their sports is the best conference ever created. Is it even close?

No. It’s not close. :chestbump:

[Jeff Lebowski]

No. It’s not close. :chestbump:

In terms of all sports (Sears Cup ranking), Stanford is the best team in history and it isn't close. USC and UCLA are also perennially good, typically in the top 10. Too bad they are leaving.

Utah's average rank is around 70, way behind BYU. Sorry.

BYU finished #17 last year and we have been in the top 25 several times. Utah made a big deal about finishing #35 last year - their best ever ranking.

SEC was the top overall conference last year. They will get stronger with Texas in the fold - the first team to unseat Stanford in the rankings.

[Applejack]

Exactly. You cut out too many schools/regions and you kill your customer base. You think if most of the California schools (insert your favorite region) get completely left out that their fans are going to tune in to B1G/SEC games each week? gtfo.

That's true in the short term; if Utah is in the Pac 12/Big12/ACC/Independent/Big Sky I am not going to watch the SEC because (a) they suck and (b) I have no affiliation with any of the schools. Same goes for the Big X.

But in the long term it changes who kids cheer for. I've raised my kids correctly and they love the Utes; but if they were in a second tier conference (which they are inevitably now that they aren't in the BIG X/SEC) I could see them loving the Utes AND loving some Big X team (like USC, ). The diehard 40-70 year olds aren't switching allegiances--we've already cast our lots. But the kids will in a heartbeat.