Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[old_gregg]

These are old planes that they have kicking around now that they are upgrading to western versions. I wonder how well maintained they are.

if the latest and greatest sukhois in the russian air force aren’t able to engage mothballed mig 29s from beyond visual range, it’s going to be the most telling weakness of the russian military we’ve seen thus far. nato f-35 and 22s and support aircraft would change the game entirely without putting a pair of american boots on the ground. establishing no fly zones would end the conflict (assuming there’s not a dramatic escalation, which there may be). this is the conflict where usaf power projection would be incredible.

[Bo Diddley]

if the latest and greatest sukhois in the russian air force aren’t able to engage mothballed mig 29s from beyond visual range, it’s going to be the most telling weakness of the russian military we’ve seen thus far. nato f-35 and 22s and support aircraft would change the game entirely without putting a pair of american boots on the ground. establishing no fly zones would end the conflict (assuming there’s not a dramatic escalation, which there may be). this is the conflict where usaf power projection would be incredible.

This invasion has disclosed how hollow the Russian military is.

[myboynoah]

Things are going to get much worse for Ukraine in the next day or two. Russians starting to bomb civilians and a massive force just outside of Kyiv. Ugh.

This invasion has disclosed how hollow the Russian military is.

I agree that this is going to get worse. This guy is an interesting read on Russia military capabilities. Seems he's saying that they haven't really been fighting like they train, and that as they starting doing how they train, things are going to get worse for the civilian population. Likely more rockets and artillery to break things up and destroy opposition. I hope he is wrong, but it makes sense.

Embedded Tweet

[Bo Diddley]

I agree that this is going to get worse. This guy is an interesting read on Russia military capabilities. Seems he's saying that they haven't really been fighting like they train, and that as they starting doing how they train, things are going to get worse for the civilian population. Likely more rockets and artillery to break things up and destroy opposition. I hope he is wrong, but it makes sense.

I'm taking my cues from such things as uncommitted soldiers, lack of overwhelming air superiority, and significant maneuver shortfalls. Miscalculation surely plays into this, but that is only a part of the calculus.

[myboynoah]

You da man, Bo!

[beefytee]

Those interested in a more scholarly take on the current conflict may be interested in a Stanford symposium Monday afternoon. The blurb I received reads:



One of the panelists is a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. It's available via zoom and is free.

I tuned into this. One of the most interesting takes from the symposium was that if Putin is being rational, NATO encroaching on the Russian borders can't be an issue. Norway was a founding member of NATO and borders Russia. There are also the Baltic states. So basically, the issue here is the Ukraine itself and not NATO and the west.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I tuned into this. One of the most interesting takes from the symposium was that if Putin is being rational, NATO encroaching on the Russian borders can't be an issue. Norway was a founding member of NATO and borders Russia. There are also the Baltic states. So basically, the issue here is the Ukraine itself and not NATO and the west.

But Putin isn't being rational, of course. It was interesting that at least two of the participants observed that analysts have noticed a shift in Putin's thought process the past couple of years, perhaps due in part to his paranoia over COVID and his isolation from others (one doesn't see recent photos of him within 25 feet of others). Putin seems more emotional and less cold/calculating, which may account for a lot of bad decision-making in recent weeks/months.

He wants the empire back--he doesn't care about ideology (communism or other). He's not that concerned about losing his power because of an encroaching NATO that might pose an increased military threat. What he's really worried about is a democratic Ukraine with a vibrant market economy that will impel everyday Russians to ask, "Why not us?"

[myboynoah]

Funny.

Embedded Tweet

[myboynoah]

Not funny.

Embedded Tweet

[originalsocal]

But Putin isn't being rational, of course. It was interesting that at least two of the participants observed that analysts have noticed a shift in Putin's thought process the past couple of years, perhaps due in part to his paranoia over COVID and his isolation from others (one doesn't see recent photos of him within 25 feet of others). Putin seems more emotional and less cold/calculating, which may account for a lot of bad decision-making in recent weeks/months.

He wants the empire back--he doesn't care about ideology (communism or other). He's not that concerned about losing his power because of an encroaching NATO that might pose an increased military threat. What he's really worried about is a democratic Ukraine with a vibrant market economy that will impel everyday Russians to ask, "Why not us?"

This does not end well for him.

[Moliere]

Oil (wti) is back up over $100. This is going to be a long drawn out war and even longer occupation full of ongoing sanctions. I hate to say that it’s going to be a huge windfall for upstream energy comapnys bottom lines at really no fault of their own.

[Clark Addison]

Oil (wti) is back up over $100. This is going to be a long drawn out war and even longer occupation full of ongoing sanctions. I hate to say that it’s going to be a huge windfall for upstream energy comapnys bottom lines at really no fault of their own.

We can still hate them though, right?

[Uncle Ted]

Things are going to get much worse for Ukraine in the next day or two. Russians starting to bomb civilians and a massive force just outside of Kyiv. Ugh.

The financial sanctions on russia are breathtaking. How long can they hold out?

Weeks and months?

Biden says sanctions will take time to impact Russian economy

President Biden on Thursday cautioned that it could take time for sanctions on Russia to have the desired impact, acknowledged the coming weeks and months "will be hard on the people of Ukraine."
[...]

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...ussian-economy

[Uncle Ted]

At least the GOP'ers are doing something that hurts Putin now...

Republicans introduce joint resolution demanding Russia lose permanent seat on UN Security Council
Russia's permanent seat on the council gives Putin veto power over its actions

Several high-profile Republicans are introducing a joint resolution calling on President Biden to pressure the United Nations to strip Russia of its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, which gives Moscow a veto over the council's resolutions.

The Republican effort, which Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn and New York Rep. Claudia Tenney are spearheading, comes after Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
[...]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rep...curity-council

I wonder if the Dems will block this one too.

Members of the UN Council walking out on the speech of Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs....

[Uncle Ted]

Oil (wti) is back up over $100. This is going to be a long drawn out war and even longer occupation full of ongoing sanctions. I hate to say that it’s going to be a huge windfall for upstream energy comapnys bottom lines at really no fault of their own.

Call we stop buying Russia oil and buy more West Texas oil?