Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Bo Diddley]

Strong statement by Blinken. Interesting. An indication of USG assessment of the situation?

A week ago no one was saying this.

Embedded Tweet

That is very encouraging to hear. I hope so. I'm not sure I can believe that yet.

The post assessments when this is all said and done are going to be VERY interesting. Many books will be written. Future force structure and strategy will change based upon what is learned.

Here's the thing. If Russia loses this war, they lose their hold on those countries in their sphere of influence right now. USSR.2 gets even smaller. Would democracy take in any of them? It would probably be turbulant for many years as they work that out.

[Bo Diddley]

Holy crap!

Embedded Tweet

[USUC]

I haven't been on for a little while and haven't kept up with this thread, but I'm curious to see how people's mood is here with this whole thing. My Twitter feed is bursting with optimism from Ukrainian journalists about how they have performed so far and how incompetent Russia has been. But I'm still 99% certain Russia levels Kyiv on its way to taking it. There will be heavy casualties on both sides but Russia will win. At which point Putin will want to negotiate terms to keep the eastern half of the country. They will have a hell of a time occupying it but I just don't see how anyone can be optimistic about the long term prospect.

[Moliere]

Embedded Tweet

I wondered if he’d say this. The sanctions are going to kill their economy so I don’t disagree they are basically a declaration of war. I guess this means we should be good now doing a no fly zone which would basically guarantee a Ukrainian victory.

[myboynoah]

I'm starting to think he's a lot of blather.

I think we need gradually up our support, step-by-step, until we reach no-fly-zone status. More intelligence sharing, covert tech/military support on the ground in Ukraine, facilitating that Polish-Mig deal for starters. Who knows, maybe a lot of this is already happening.

[myboynoah]

Wow, very interesting read on Russian logistics issues. I read a Washington Post article about Ukranians directed to forgo tanks and other armor in order to target fuel tankers instead. Targeting trucks as well it looks like. Russians ignoring Sun Tzu and Napoleonic doctrine on logistics.

Embedded Tweet

[Scott R Nelson]

I think we need gradually up our support, step-by-step, until we reach no-fly-zone status.

Are you proposing a no-fly zone with US fighters?

What happens when they shoot down a Russian plane? That seems like a sure way to get us into a war.

[Bo Diddley]

Wow, very interesting read on Russian logistics issues. I read a Washington Post article about Ukranians directed to forgo tanks and other armor in order to target fuel tankers instead. Targeting trucks as well it looks like. Russians ignoring Sun Tzu and Napoleonic doctrine on logistics.

That's a good read. I specialize in logistics, so this is up my alley. I haven't ever really gotten into theater level logistics planning, but I've seen how it looks firsthand. It's crazy how badly Russia whiffed on this.

I liked the tweet where he talked about how poor logistics (maintenance) has probably also affected their ability to project air power. These last few years in Army Aviation have taught me just how much maintenance is needed to keep these things flying.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Are you proposing a no-fly zone with US fighters?

What happens when they shoot down a Russian plane? That seems like a sure way to get us into a war.

Yeah, it’s remarkable how many people are openly campaigning for literal World War III.

[Omaha 680]

Yeah, it’s remarkable how many people are openly campaigning for literal World War III.

Exactly. I'm all for as much support in terms of money and weapons that can be delivered. But a no-fly zone is an escalation against a nuclear power we can't risk when they are led by a rational actor. With Putin's unknown mental state it makes it even more risky.

[Bo Diddley]

I remember hoping early on that Trump's mental state and lack of predictability might play into our favor. It didn't.

[Non Sequitur]

Yeah, it’s remarkable how many people are openly campaigning for literal World War III.

If Hitler had had nukes, would we have let him proceed unfettered? If you look at the world response, we're kind of already in World Ware III, just without the guns yet. Putin has already said that the sanctions are equivalent to a declaration of war, so if Putin thinks we are at war, how does that not make us at war?

[Bo Diddley]

If Hitler had had nukes, would we have let him proceed unfettered? If you look at the world response, we're kind of already in World Ware III, just without the guns yet. Putin has already said that the sanctions are equivalent to a declaration of war, so if Putin thinks we are at war, how does that not make us at war?

I estimate the odds of him deploying nukes less with sanctions than with direct military intervention, despite what he says. Bark & bite don't always go hand in hand.

[Non Sequitur]

I estimate the odds of him deploying nukes less with sanctions than with direct military intervention, despite what he says. Bark & bite don't always go hand in hand.

If Putin deploys tactical nukes against Ukraine, which wouldn't surprise me, do we still stay on the sidelines? I'm not yet at the point where I think we should enter the fight, but I do think a line of slaughter exists that we cannot allow Putin to cross with impunity. Where is that line?

[Jeff Lebowski]

If Hitler had had nukes, would we have let him proceed unfettered? If you look at the world response, we're kind of already in World Ware III, just without the guns yet. Putin has already said that the sanctions are equivalent to a declaration of war, so if Putin thinks we are at war, how does that not make us at war?

Well, if Putin said it was an act of war, we may as well get ahead of things and just launch the nukes now, right? Come on.

And "unfettered"? We have destroyed their economy and set them back at least 30 years.

I estimate the odds of him deploying nukes less with sanctions than with direct military intervention, despite what he says. Bark & bite don't always go hand in hand.

Exactly.