2024 Presidential Election Thread

[Northwestcoug]

I would put his chances at 40%.

This sounds about right. But it still feels very volatile.

[Clark Addison]

In my completely ignorant view, Trump would have a pretty good chance if the election were held today. Fus' 60% chance seems about right to me, but:

1. Good chance the economy will continue to show good signs and the angst people have over inflation will slowly decrease
2. I think the Republicans pushed the border panic frenzy too early. This will continue to be an issue, but it is difficult to maintain that level of "OMG, the borders are melting down!!!" for 10 months

Of course, plenty more can happen, but as the negative impact of these two things lessen, and as Trump is forced to take a more central role as he gets the nomination, reminding people why they hate him, I think good chance things slide more and more away from him.

[Jeff Lebowski]

In my completely ignorant view, Trump would have a pretty good chance if the election were held today. Fus' 60% chance seems about right to me, but:

1. Good chance the economy will continue to show good signs and the angst people have over inflation will slowly decrease
2. I think the Republicans pushed the border panic frenzy too early. This will continue to be an issue, but it is difficult to maintain that level of "OMG, the borders are melting down!!!" for 10 months

Of course, plenty more can happen, but as the negative impact of these two things lessen, and as Trump is forced to take a more central role as he gets the nomination, reminding people why they hate him, I think good chance things slide more and more away from him.

He is working for the nomination now. General election is a different dynamic. He lost in 2020 as an incumbent. Even more reasons to hate him now.

[Commando]

In my completely ignorant view, Trump would have a pretty good chance if the election were held today. Fus' 60% chance seems about right to me, but:

1. Good chance the economy will continue to show good signs and the angst people have over inflation will slowly decrease
2. I think the Republicans pushed the border panic frenzy too early. This will continue to be an issue, but it is difficult to maintain that level of "OMG, the borders are melting down!!!" for 10 months

Of course, plenty more can happen, but as the negative impact of these two things lessen, and as Trump is forced to take a more central role as he gets the nomination, reminding people why they hate him, I think good chance things slide more and more away from him.

That has ALWAYS been their go-to if you've noticed. Remember the caravans that would appear every time Trump needed a bump? Assembling the national guard like 25 miles from the border in Tucson? (lol) This is just an extension of that. Zzzzz. Anybody notice that if it was actually a 'crisis' there would be some kind of motivation to do something before this November?

[YOhio]

That has ALWAYS been their go-to if you've noticed. Remember the caravans that would appear every time Trump needed a bump? Assembling the national guard like 25 miles from the border in Tucson? (lol) This is just an extension of that. Zzzzz. Anybody notice that if it was actually a 'crisis' there would be some kind of motivation to do something before this November?

So I've never been super interested in the border. Sure it was a concern, just hasn't been a top priority issue for me. But it does seem like it's getting pretty bad. Judging solely on Customs and Border Patrol numbers it seems like it's a pretty big crisis. Like we can't handle 300K+ people coming in every month, right?

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/s...der-encounters

I really, really hate that this is such a partisan issue. It seems obvious that we shouldn't allow people to just walk into our country. It also seems obvious that legal immigration should be much easier. Yet we live in crazy times.

[Commando]

So I've never been super interested in the border. Sure it was a concern, just hasn't been a top priority issue for me. But it does seem like it's getting pretty bad. Judging solely on Customs and Border Patrol numbers it seems like it's a pretty big crisis. Like we can't handle 300K+ people coming in every month, right?

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/s...der-encounters

I really, really hate that this is such a partisan issue. It seems obvious that we shouldn't allow people to just walk into our country. It also seems obvious that legal immigration should be much easier. Yet we live in crazy times.

I don't have any of the data or anything, but just if I had to guess, migration from all countries is probably marginally higher, with way more cases than usual from South America driven by Venezuelan migration, and don't forget Cubans are now part of the quilt because of Obama trying to normalize relations with them and getting rid of the 'wet foot-dry foot' policies that gave them their residency for setting foot on American soil. Now they are in the queue for asylum with everyone else.

Second- I think a lot of the numbers from the Central American triangle and Mexico stem from the bottleneck created during the pandemic by Title 42, ostensibly to keep people out with covid. 'Wow record low migration,' you think. lol. Migration wasn't lowered-- it was artificially paused. We barely got rid of that and now all the people who didn't give up and have their tickets in northern Mexico are making their way across. There are new programs to sort of expedite the process and get everyone screened and to their destination. I'm seeing way less detention than before, which is a good thing for a lot of reasons.

[fusnik]

I would put his chances at 40%.

Only reason we are having this convo is because Biden is a walking corpse and his DEI VP pick is a bust.

Don’t you ‘read’ the Times?

You obvs missed the recent article about DEI. I ask because if you did read the Times you couldn’t have missed the article and you probs would be embarrassed even to ironically use the term.

[fusnik]

So I've never been super interested in the border. Sure it was a concern, just hasn't been a top priority issue for me. But it does seem like it's getting pretty bad. Judging solely on Customs and Border Patrol numbers it seems like it's a pretty big crisis. Like we can't handle 300K+ people coming in every month, right?

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/s...der-encounters

I really, really hate that this is such a partisan issue. It seems obvious that we shouldn't allow people to just walk into our country. It also seems obvious that legal immigration should be much easier. Yet we live in crazy times.

Shouldn’t a group of traditional conservatives/liberterians ideologically want a fully open border? Isn’t that the true definition of a free market?

It’s been interesting to me that nobody talks about the employment side of this issue. I’m pretty ignorant so maybe that has been solved but how are these people getting phones, apartments, bank accounts, without a huge closing of the eyes after these folks enter?

[USUC]

Don’t you ‘read’ the Times?

You obvs missed the recent article about DEI. I ask because if you did read the Times you couldn’t have missed the article and you probs would be embarrassed even to ironically use the term.

Link

[Jeff Lebowski]

Don’t you ‘read’ the Times?

You obvs missed the recent article about DEI. I ask because if you did read the Times you couldn’t have missed the article and you probs would be embarrassed even to ironically use the term.

Quite a few articles on DEI lately. Not sure what article you are talking about.

Prior to making a pick, Biden explicitly said he was only going to consider black women for the job. Seems like the textbook definition of a DEI hire. Dumb to limit your demographic, but even dumber to make a public announcement beforehand. If that is your metric, keep it to yourself. It didn't do Harris any favors to make it known that she was picked at least in part because she is a black woman.

Of course, had Biden made a better VP pick, he could have stepped aside and let his VP run in 2024. But Harris has been such a dud that Biden is sticking around, even though 70% of democrats think he is too old. Similar percentages aren't enthused about Harris.

[fusnik]

Quite a few articles on DEI lately. Not sure what article you are talking about.

Prior to making a pick, Biden explicitly said he was only going to consider black women for the job. Seems like the textbook definition of a DEI hire. Dumb to limit your demographic, but even dumber to make a public announcement beforehand. If that is your metric, keep it to yourself. It didn't do Harris any favors to make it known that she was picked at least in part because she is a black woman.

Of course, had Biden made a better VP pick, he could have stepped aside and let his VP run in 2024. But Harris has been such a dud that Biden is sticking around, even though 70% of democrats think he is too old. Similar percentages aren't enthused about Harris.

This is the type of commentary that just shows your lack of interest in knowing what really happened with her nomination:

Harris garnered more individual contributions after her announcement than anyone except Bernie

20k people showed up to her announcement

Harris crushed in the first Democratic debate

Harris got crushed in the second debate because she was too hard on crime

In 2019 the Black Caucus pushed the idea of a Black Female nominee

In 2020 Clyburn endorsed Biden delivering South Carolina and essentially winning the nomination

The endorsement came with the agreement that it needed to have a minority female on the ticket

Biden delivered on the promise saving us from a Trump v Sanders/Warren face off.

Was a former candidate who also happened to be a senator/ DA of a major city not a qualified candidate?

Did you bitch that Paul Ryan wasn’t qualified? Harris’ CV more impressive than his yet I’m willing to bet millions of dollars you never criticized his nomination. You probably looked at it and said, smart move by Mitt choosing a handsome white dude from a rich family who married into a politically connected family in a swing state he could poach.

It’s such a lazy and dumb argument to attach DEI to her appointment.

[Maximus]

I wonder if pence is also a DEI addition since they wanted an evangelical. or does it only apply to democrats and race?

What about trump not selecting a non white person to avoid it. lol

[Commando]

I wonder if pence is also a DEI addition since they wanted an evangelical. or does it only apply to democrats and race?

What about trump not selecting a non white person to avoid it. lol

Vivek or whatever his name is hasn't taken a breath since he planted his lips on Trump's butt all those months ago. I'd be pretty surprised if it wasn't him.

[falafel]

Vivek or whatever his name is hasn't taken a breath since he planted his lips on Trump's butt all those months ago. I'd be pretty surprised if it wasn't him.

Dream ticket right there. Lots of people love Trump, but almost nobody likes Vivek. What a bucket of slime.

[Jeff Lebowski]

This is the type of commentary that just shows your lack of interest in knowing what really happened with her nomination:

Harris garnered more individual contributions after her announcement than anyone except Bernie

20k people showed up to her announcement

Harris crushed in the first Democratic debate

Harris got crushed in the second debate because she was too hard on crime

In 2019 the Black Caucus pushed the idea of a Black Female nominee

In 2020 Clyburn endorsed Biden delivering South Carolina and essentially winning the nomination

The endorsement came with the agreement that it needed to have a minority female on the ticket

Biden delivered on the promise saving us from a Trump v Sanders/Warren face off.

Was a former candidate who also happened to be a senator/ DA of a major city not a qualified candidate?

Did you bitch that Paul Ryan wasn’t qualified? Harris’ CV more impressive than his yet I’m willing to bet millions of dollars you never criticized his nomination. You probably looked at it and said, smart move by Mitt choosing a handsome white dude from a rich family who married into a politically connected family in a swing state he could poach.

It’s such a lazy and dumb argument to attach DEI to her appointment.

This is a lazy and dumb response.

It is especially funny that you are arguing that she was a good VP pick. She has the lowest approval rating in history for a VP. Worse than Mike Pence:

https://www.axios.com/2023/06/26/kam...election-biden

49% of registered voters have a negative view of Vice President Kamala Harris, compared to 32% with a positive view, per a new NBC News poll.

Why it matters: NBC News says Harris' net-negative rating of -17 is the lowest for a vice president in the history of its poll.

Zoom out: In Oct. 2019, 34% had a positive view of then-Vice President Mike Pence, while 38% had a negative view, for a rating of -4, per NBC News.

It is even worse now:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...kamala-harris/

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harr...roblem-1853029

Kamala Harris' already poor approval rating fell further during 2023, with one prominent political scientist telling Newsweek her unpopularity "could end up being a difference-maker" in the 2024 presidential election.

Worst VP pick since Sarah Palin.

But go on about how 20K people showed up for her announcement. Lol.