2024 Presidential Election Thread

[fusnik]

2016 was also before he incited a mob to attack the Capitol Building. There is a subset of Republicans, and perhaps more importantly, Independents, who find that disqualifying.

I want to meet one of these people IRL.

Because those people won’t vote for Trump but they’ll vote for all the down ballot folks who endorse him of which a large percentage participated in the attack by voting against verification?

Color me suspicious.

[RC Vikings]

Trump has a better shot in 2024 v 2016.

Hilary really stirred up the hate in 2016, a lot of votes were anti Clinton more so than pro Trump. Biden is not well liked but he doesn't come close to firing up emotions like Clinton did. Trump vs Biden and Biden wins.

[USUC]

I think he’s going to win.

I think his support amongst minority groups is way higher than being reflected in polls and a significant shift in those groups coupled with the USUCs of the world holding their nose is going to deliver him a second term.

Chef's kiss

[Pelado]

I want to meet one of these people IRL.

Because those people won’t vote for Trump but they’ll vote for all the down ballot folks who endorse him of which a large percentage participated in the attack by voting against verification?

Color me suspicious.

I would point to myself, but I already found Trump disqualified in so many other ways.

Believe it or not, there are still some Republicans (and Independents) out there who believe that a president should honor the oath to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution.

[Northwestcoug]

Believe it or not, there are still some Republicans (and Independents) out there who believe that a president should honor the oath to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution.

Yes. Someone like this guy:

s-l400.jpg

[fusnik]

I would point to myself, but I already found Trump disqualified in so many other ways.

Believe it or not, there are still some Republicans (and Independents) out there who believe that a president should honor the oath to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution.

Yet these people support the apparatus that gives Trump his structure and power?

[myboynoah]

lol

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[Jeff Lebowski]

I think he’s going to win.

I think his support amongst minority groups is way higher than being reflected in polls and a significant shift in those groups coupled with the USUCs of the world holding their nose is going to deliver him a second term.

Lol, come on. He way more toxic now than he was in 2016 and 2020. Lots of polling data to bear that out.

[Commando]

No. Trump is a political advisor's nightmare. Refusing to stake out voters to the left of his extreme right positions? Yes he has a passionate 'base,' but they are ever-shrinking. And wait until the convictions start piling up. People are going to stay home in droves who would have not missed voting for him in 2020.

[Commando]

Hilary really stirred up the hate in 2016, a lot of votes were anti Clinton more so than pro Trump. Biden is not well liked but he doesn't come close to firing up emotions like Clinton did. Trump vs Biden and Biden wins.

Is there a point when Trump's base begins to feel intellectually insulted with all the contrivance the GOP has had to insert into the conversation? 'Biden Crime Family,' and other assorted bullshit transparently accusing Biden's civilian family with the kind of nepotistic corruption with which Trump's entire term was verifiably replete with to an exponentially more severe degree?

[fusnik]

Is there a point when Trump's base begins to feel intellectually insulted with all the contrivance the GOP has had to insert into the conversation? 'Biden Crime Family,' and other assorted bullshit transparently accusing Biden's civilian family with the kind of nepotistic corruption with which Trump's entire term was verifiably replete with to an exponentially more severe degree?

This circles back to my larger point, Trumps base is no longer 35% of the GOP, it’s 95% of the old GOP and a large portion of the right leaning independents.

These people didn’t leave him after the pussy tape, didn’t leave after Charlottesville, didn’t leave after Helsinki, didn’t leave after the love letters with a murderous dictator, didn’t leave after J6, didn’t leave when he was found guilty of rape, didn’t leave after storing state secrets in his bathroom, etc, you think a judgement in NYC of defamation and a couple hundred million judgement from initiated by Alvin Bragg is going to shake their support of him?

The party has had a million off ramps and every time the core has stayed on the freeway and the smart ones have co-opted Trump by saying, sure we hate him but it’s better to be driving in the emergency lane than getting off the next exit because, something something traffic.

[Jeff Lebowski]

This circles back to my larger point, Trumps base is no longer 35% of the GOP, it’s 95% of the old GOP and a large portion of the right leaning independents.

These people didn’t leave him after the pussy tape, didn’t leave after Charlottesville, didn’t leave after Helsinki, didn’t leave after the love letters with a murderous dictator, didn’t leave after J6, didn’t leave when he was found guilty of rape, didn’t leave after storing state secrets in his bathroom, etc, you think a judgement in NYC of defamation and a couple hundred million judgement from initiated by Alvin Bragg is going to shake their support of him?

The party has had a million off ramps and every time the core has stayed on the freeway and the smart ones have co-opted Trump by saying, sure we hate him but it’s better to be driving in the emergency lane than getting off the next exit because, something something traffic.

You are being dramatic.

Iowa polling data:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...s-maga-survey/

The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found that 18 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers identify themselves as “Ultra MAGA,” while an additional 22 percent identify as “Regular MAGA,” NBC News reported. Thirty-eight percent said they were neutral to the phrase, and 17 percent said they were “anti-MAGA.”

MAGA wildly unpopular in the US at large:

https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...inds-rcna81200

President Donald Trump is still unpopular and so is the political movement created in his image, according to a new national NBC News poll.

The Make America Great Again, or ‘MAGA,’ movement, which takes its name from Trump’s first campaign slogan, was the least popular individual or group tested in the new survey. Just 24% of Americans have positive views of the movement, while 45% voice negative views.

A slight majority of Republicans — 52% — view the MAGA movement positively, as well as 53% of those who define themselves as conservative.

Anti-MAGA majority keeps winning victories despite gloom and doom polls

https://peoplesworld.org/article/ant...nd-doom-polls/

The rejection of MAGA and the overperformance of Democratic-aligned candidates in special elections throughout 2023 and during the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections affirm the existence of an anti-MAGA majority of voters. Fear of MAGA, the assault on democratic rights, and the real-life destructive consequences of MAGA policies is a crucial driver of turnout, including Independents and Republicans repulsed by MAGA extremism. These results should give confidence entering the 2024 election cycle.

[fusnik]

He lost the last election by a smaller margin than HRC in 2016.

He received more votes than any other candidate ever save Joe Biden.

The GOP sprinted to him this election cycle even after his losses and J6.

It’s going to be a coin toss. Today Id say Joe wins 6/10 times. Tomorrow? Who knows. Either way it’s going to be close.

Joes going to get destroyed with his age and his VP. Nikki Haley will endorse Trump and say she is doing it because Harris is the real threat to America. The anti anti Trumps, the NR types, majority here and the intellectual conservatives will vote for him because of the judiciary and the chance that some scandal finally catches up to Thomas to maintain the posture of the court.

And on top of that Manchin or that clown from MD will probably run a No Labels grift campaign.

Actually I’d put his chances right now at 60%.

[USUC]

I'm sure this stuff will endear Trump to the moderates and suburban mom's he so desperately needs to win the general.

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[Jeff Lebowski]

He lost the last election by a smaller margin than HRC in 2016.

He received more votes than any other candidate ever save Joe Biden.

The GOP sprinted to him this election cycle even after his losses and J6.

It’s going to be a coin toss. Today Id say Joe wins 6/10 times. Tomorrow? Who knows. Either way it’s going to be close.

Joes going to get destroyed with his age and his VP. Nikki Haley will endorse Trump and say she is doing it because Harris is the real threat to America. The anti anti Trumps, the NR types, majority here and the intellectual conservatives will vote for him because of the judiciary and the chance that some scandal finally catches up to Thomas to maintain the posture of the court.

And on top of that Manchin or that clown from MD will probably run a No Labels grift campaign.

Actually I’d put his chances right now at 60%.

I would put his chances at 40%.

Only reason we are having this convo is because Biden is a walking corpse and his DEI VP pick is a bust.