2024 Presidential Election Thread

[Jeff Lebowski]

Of course, but that doesn't negate the probability that most GOP voters will still vote for Trump.

Has anyone been arguing otherwise?

[Northwestcoug]

Has anyone been arguing otherwise?

Well you said that in response to my post about GOP voters supporting Trump. I wondered why you brought in independents when we weren't talking about that.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Well you said that in response to my post about GOP voters supporting Trump. I wondered why you brought in independents when we weren't talking about that.

Yeah, you were saying how unfortunate it is that most republicans will vote for trump. Why is this so unfortunate in the context of the general election? What was your point?

[Northwestcoug]

Yeah, you were saying how unfortunate it is that most republicans will vote for trump. Why is this so unfortunate in the context of the general election? What was your point?

My point was in response to Commando's and others belief that a significant proportion of GOP voters have soured on him, and they won't support him in the general election (at least that's the way I read their posts). I disagree; once he's the nominee I think a majority of them will vote for Trump, even if they are saying they don't support him now in the primary.

[Jeff Lebowski]

My point was in response to Commando's and others belief that a significant proportion of GOP voters have soured on him, and they won't support him in the general election (at least that's the way I read their posts). I disagree; once he's the nominee I think a majority of them will vote for Trump, even if they are saying they don't support him now in the primary.

Yes, a majority of republicans will vote for the republican candidate. Glad we cleared that up.

But there is good evidence that a small but significant percentage of the GOP electorate is never trump and that it will be difficult for Trump to win over enough of the independent vote.

[Northwestcoug]

Yes, a majority of republicans will vote for the republican candidate. Glad we cleared that up.

But there is good evidence that a small but significant percentage of the GOP electorate is never trump and that it will be difficult for Trump to win over enough of the independent vote.

Yep, I agree. It's going to be difficult for him. Glad that's been cleared up now.

[Commando]

Embedded Tweet

This is exactly what I'm talking about. People are all gassed up like they think the Iowa Caucus has anything to do with how the general election will go with extremist Trump on the general ballot again. Didn't guys like Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum, who never sniffed the nomination, take the Iowa Caucus in years past? lol.

[falafel]

This is exactly what I'm talking about. People are all gassed up like they think the Iowa Caucus has anything to do with how the general election will go with extremist Trump on the general ballot again. Didn't guys like Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum, who never sniffed the nomination, take the Iowa Caucus in years past? lol.

Yeah, but this feels different, doesn't it. No one is seriously suggesting that Trump doesn't pretty much have the nomination locked up. Haley could possibly play disrupter, but seems very unlikely.

[Commando]

Yes, a majority of republicans will vote for the republican candidate. Glad we cleared that up.

But there is good evidence that a small but significant percentage of the GOP electorate is never trump and that it will be difficult for Trump to win over enough of the independent vote.

Yeah and my real point is that you need your base to be energized to win an election- not that Republicans will be switch hitting all of a sudden. The GOP has shrunk since 2016 anyway because of Trump, and the only people energized for Trump is the extreme MAGA contingency hanging in there. Yes, most Republicans will vote for Trump, but only the ones that bother.

[Commando]

Yeah, but this feels different, doesn't it. No one is seriously suggesting that Trump doesn't pretty much have the nomination locked up. Haley could possibly play disrupter, but seems very unlikely.

No- my take is that Trump has it all the way locked up and has for some time. It helps that nobody dares say shit about him, even though he has skipped all the debates. I'm just saying that the republicans that are voting for Nikki Haley and DeSantis may not necessarily jump on Team Trump once he does, like is customary, due to the novel circumstances of a cult running the party. I mean-- if they aren't Trump by now, they may have an unusually strong aversion to him.

[Jeff Lebowski]

No- my take is that Trump has it all the way locked up and has for some time. It helps that nobody dares say shit about him, even though he has skipped all the debates. I'm just saying that the republicans that are voting for Nikki Haley and DeSantis may not necessarily jump on Team Trump once he does, like is customary, due to the novel circumstances of a cult running the party. I mean-- if they aren't Trump by now, they may have an unusually strong aversion to him.

We have some hard data on this:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...y/72201589007/

While former President Donald Trump has built a commanding lead with likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, less than half identify with his MAGA brand, according to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Forty percent of Iowans who plan to caucus for Republicans Monday say they align with the MAGA identity, a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, which has sometimes become synonymous with conservative politics.

Eighteen percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say they consider themselves “ultra MAGA,” and 22% say they identify as “just regular MAGA” supporters.

But another 38% say they have neutral feelings about the MAGA movement, and 17% say they are “anti-MAGA.”

17% are anti-MAGA! That's a big deal.

And this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...ump-rcna133821

Most likely Republican Iowa caucusgoers say they’ll vote for former President Donald Trump in the general election if he’s the GOP nominee, regardless of the candidate they’re supporting on caucus night.

That is, except supporters of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, with nearly half of them — 43% — saying they’d vote for Democratic President Joe Biden over Trump.

[falafel]

No- my take is that Trump has it all the way locked up and has for some time. It helps that nobody dares say shit about him, even though he has skipped all the debates. I'm just saying that the republicans that are voting for Nikki Haley and DeSantis may not necessarily jump on Team Trump once he does, like is customary, due to the novel circumstances of a cult running the party. I mean-- if they aren't Trump by now, they may have an unusually strong aversion to him.

Okay. Seemed like you were saying "don't pay attention to the Iowa results, the winner doesn't necessarily come out first there - e.g., Cruz, Santorum, etc.

[fusnik]

If 17% were truly anti MAGA the party wouldn’t have shit out Jeff Flake, Adam Kinz, Liz Cheney and now Chris Christie.

Haleys support in Iowa was boosted by Democrats and left leaning independents who wanted to vote in a primary and miss the dopamine hit of being the first in the nation.

Look at the current GOP leadership in both chambers, all except Mitch endorsed Trump pre-first primary. Look at Chris Sununu who said he will support Trump when he locks up the nomination.

They’ll all come home for him. If you are saying you are a republican in 2024, 9 years post Trump on the escalator, you are MAGA.

Realistically the party is 95% MAGA, and the small sliver that was anti MAGA left circa 2018.

[Jeff Lebowski]

If 17% were truly anti MAGA the party wouldn’t have shit out Jeff Flake, Adam Kinz, Liz Cheney and now Chris Christie.

There is zero logic for this statement.

Look at the current GOP leadership in both chambers, all except Mitch endorsed Trump pre-first primary. Look at Chris Sununu who said he will support Trump when he locks up the nomination.

This also has zero relation to the point in question.

They’ll all come home for him. If you are saying you are a republican in 2024, 9 years post Trump on the escalator, you are MAGA.

Shot.

Realistically the party is 95% MAGA, and the small sliver that was anti MAGA left circa 2018.

Chaser. (wouldn't it be 100% by your logic?)

I hope trump's campaign advisors are smoking the same thing you are smoking.

[beefytee]

It seems some want to dismiss Trumps victory last night as not meaningful because Rick Santorum and Ted Cruz won the last meaningful Iowa caucuses and didn't sniff winning the nomination.

The problem with that is Cruz won it with 26.67% of the vote and Rick Santorum barely edged out Romney with 24.56%. In fact, on caucus night, it was widely accepted that Mitt won.

So, with 51% of the vote in the first contest, it is pretty hard to dismiss the chasm between Trump and his challengers.

Something will need to happen, and votes will need to dramatically swing for anyone else to have any kind of shot to win. At this point, I don't know what would cause Trump voters to change their mind. Trump wasn't that far off when he said he could shoot someone on Fifth avenue and wouldn't lose any votes.