Male Camel Toe Syndrome: I'll Never Get Enough of USU

[Jeff Lebowski]

88% odds this week? I'll take it.

[pelagius]

88% odds this week? I'll take it.

That's basically what's implied by the betting, so if you believe you efficient sports betting markets you should feel pretty good.

[pelagius]

Same thing as above, but this time we'll veer into the optimistic world and assume that BYU's true quality is rank = 10:

                team  home  rank  mov   prob
0        Connecticut    -1   124   27  1.000
1              Texas    -1    23    3  1.000
2            Houston     1    62   20  1.000
3           Virginia     1    59   19  1.000
4         Utah State     1    70   17  0.884
5    Central Florida    -1    50   11  0.778
6             Nevada     1    69   22  0.933
7        Boise State    -1    42    9  0.745
8   Middle Tennessee    -1    90   21  0.925
9               UNLV     1   130   34  0.990
10    Savannah State     1   246   65  0.990
11        California    -1    63   14  0.842

[pelagius]

Here is the distribution based on ESPN's fpi (which currently ranks BYU 18th ... here I just use the FPI model probabilities for all games):

[pelagius]

An here is the same thing using Massey's model (Masset ranks BYU as quality 20 but I think the probabilities are generated from the power index models which ranks BYU as 25th):

[Jeff Lebowski]

If you haven't discovered it yet, you owe it to yourself to visit the USU fan board:

http://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewforum.php?f=4

You can thank me later.

[SCcoug]

If you haven't discovered it yet, you owe it to yourself to visit the USU fan board:

http://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewforum.php?f=4

You can thank me later.

We're just so cocky and arrogant!

[Jeff Lebowski]

We're just so cocky and arrogant!

Not to mention "abnoxious and total clueless".

[MarkGrace]

We're just so cocky and arrogant!

They're stealing material from Hot Lunch now.

[The_Douger]

Looks like the line is out so I will update my distributional predictions for the season. The early line for the game is like BYU -17.5. I haven't changed my before season assessment of BYU as basically quality rank = 20. If we hold that constant, and then plug in Sagarin's current linear MOV ratings (which are still noisy but getting better ... also I will use what is implied by the betting for Utah St.) we get something like the following:

               team  home  rank  mov   prob
0        Connecticut    -1   124   22  1.000
1              Texas    -1    23   -2  1.000
2            Houston     1    62   15  1.000
3           Virginia     1    59   14  1.000
4         Utah State     1    70   17  0.884
5    Central Florida    -1    50    6  0.672
6             Nevada     1    69   17  0.884
7        Boise State    -1    42    4  0.617
8   Middle Tennessee    -1    90   16  0.871
9               UNLV     1   130   29  0.970
10    Savannah State     1   246   60  0.990
11        California    -1    63    9  0.745

I'm surprised they think Nevada is so bad. I think Nevada will beat Boise this week. Their defense seems to be greatly improved.

Basically it looks like win road games against Boise and UCF, and it should be pretty easy until Cal.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I'd be more worried playing Cal this week than after Thanksgiving. By then, Cal's season will be essentially over, and they play us right after the Big Game with Stanford, which is by far the most important game to Cal fans. Assuming they lose that one, they can be expected to mail it in against BYU.

[The_Douger]

I'd be more worried playing Cal this week than after Thanksgiving. By then, Cal's season will be essentially over, and they play us right after the Big Game with Stanford, which is by far the most important game to Cal fans. Assuming they lose that one, they can be expected to mail it in against BYU.

I worry about playing them if they're 5-6 and need to win for bowl eligibility. I'd feel better about if it they were 6-5 or 4-7. They seem to have the type of passing attack that can give us trouble.

[myboynoah]

They're stealing material from Hot Lunch now.

lol

[SCcoug]

In response to Remington Peck saying Chuckie wont play the rest of the season to try and medical redshirt.

I'm hearing it was an official press release from BYU about the upcoming game. If that's the case I'm guessing they're trying to get USU to confirm or deny their fabricated rumor. Stay Classy BYU.

It is all an intel op to get USU to tip their hand!

http://www.usufans.com/Forums/viewto...98526f#p334069

[myboynoah]

Bronco hyping the rivalry with USU

The players on the other hand, not so convinced. It's just another game.

Jamal doesn't even feel it for the uofutah:

“I still haven’t felt the rivalry against Utah. I’m not even there yet,” he said. “People say it’s a rivalry and they hate each other. I ain’t got there yet. I’m trying to. I don’t have that hatred. This game against Utah State’s going to be a good one. It’s an in-state game for us and another opportunity to get better.”

At least he's trying.