The PAC 10 expansion groundswell

[Applejack]

I can give you all the answers right now! No need to consult Elder Swaim:

- everyone in the pac/big12/acc would jump to the big ten if offered.
- those with a realistic shot of being offered from the pac are UW,Oregon,Stanford. If they took 4 (why would they?) they’d probably take cal.
- if those teams are taken in by the big ten, there will be a scramble to join the big xii. Leading candidates are CU, Utah, asu, and maybe arizona (plus, of course, anybody left out from the big ten).

but all this breathless waiting is unseemly. It all depends on the big ten moving (because every team in the pac would prefer the pac over the big xii). If the big ten says “thanks, we’re good”, then the pac survives and continues as the conference of champions. If the big ten says “we need more west”, the pac implodes and the leftovers run to the big xii.

Personally, I think the big 10 takes uw, Stanford, and Oregon sooner rather than later, but who knows? Does uw,Stanford,Oregon increase the value of that fat contract they just signed? Doubt it. Does it increase the prestige of the conference to hobknob in Palo Alto? Definitely. But once conferences approach the twenty member mark, they start to look like two conferences (big ten west: Stanford, cal, uo, uw, ucla, usc, Nebraska, Iowa, northwestern; big ten east: mich, msu, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn st, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota) - the pac 10 and the big 10. Is that better?

[Jeff Lebowski]

I can give you all the answers right now! No need to consult Elder Swaim:

- everyone in the pac/big12/acc would jump to the big ten if offered.
- those with a realistic shot of being offered from the pac are UW,Oregon,Stanford. If they took 4 (why would they?) they’d probably take cal.
- if those teams are taken in by the big ten, there will be a scramble to join the big xii. Leading candidates are CU, Utah, asu, and maybe arizona (plus, of course, anybody left out from the big ten).

but all this breathless waiting is unseemly. It all depends on the big ten moving (because every team in the pac would prefer the pac over the big xii). If the big ten says “thanks, we’re good”, then the pac survives and continues as the conference of champions. If the big ten says “we need more west”, the pac implodes and the leftovers run to the big xii.

Personally, I think the big 10 takes uw, Stanford, and Oregon sooner rather than later, but who knows? Does uw,Stanford,Oregon increase the value of that fat contract they just signed? Doubt it. Does it increase the prestige of the conference to hobknob in Palo Alto? Definitely. But once conferences approach the twenty member mark, they start to look like two conferences (big ten west: Stanford, cal, uo, uw, ucla, usc, Nebraska, Iowa, northwestern; big ten east: mich, msu, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn st, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota) - the pac 10 and the big 10. Is that better?

I agree with all of this.

[Uncle Ted]

I can give you all the answers right now! No need to consult Elder Swaim:

- everyone in the pac/big12/acc would jump to the big ten if offered.
- those with a realistic shot of being offered from the pac are UW,Oregon,Stanford. If they took 4 (why would they?) they’d probably take cal.
- if those teams are taken in by the big ten, there will be a scramble to join the big xii. Leading candidates are CU, Utah, asu, and maybe arizona (plus, of course, anybody left out from the big ten).

but all this breathless waiting is unseemly. It all depends on the big ten moving (because every team in the pac would prefer the pac over the big xii). If the big ten says “thanks, we’re good”, then the pac survives and continues as the conference of champions. If the big ten says “we need more west”, the pac implodes and the leftovers run to the big xii.

Personally, I think the big 10 takes uw, Stanford, and Oregon sooner rather than later, but who knows? Does uw,Stanford,Oregon increase the value of that fat contract they just signed? Doubt it. Does it increase the prestige of the conference to hobknob in Palo Alto? Definitely. But once conferences approach the twenty member mark, they start to look like two conferences (big ten west: Stanford, cal, uo, uw, ucla, usc, Nebraska, Iowa, northwestern; big ten east: mich, msu, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn st, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota) - the pac 10 and the big 10. Is that better?

I think both UW and Oregon have value. ... The WSJ ranks the UW's and Oregon's value 19th and 21st, which puts them both ahead of U$C (23rd) and UCLA (24th). Yeah, they increase that fat contract value. So the Big 10 should take UW and Oregon ASAP. The Big 12 should then take Arizona, ASU, CU and Stanford. The rest can go to the MWC.

[Paperback Writer]

I can give you all the answers right now! No need to consult Elder Swaim:

- everyone in the pac/big12/acc would jump to the big ten if offered.
- those with a realistic shot of being offered from the pac are UW,Oregon,Stanford. If they took 4 (why would they?) they’d probably take cal.
- if those teams are taken in by the big ten, there will be a scramble to join the big xii. Leading candidates are CU, Utah, asu, and maybe arizona (plus, of course, anybody left out from the big ten).

but all this breathless waiting is unseemly. It all depends on the big ten moving (because every team in the pac would prefer the pac over the big xii). If the big ten says “thanks, we’re good”, then the pac survives and continues as the conference of champions. If the big ten says “we need more west”, the pac implodes and the leftovers run to the big xii.

Personally, I think the big 10 takes uw, Stanford, and Oregon sooner rather than later, but who knows? Does uw,Stanford,Oregon increase the value of that fat contract they just signed? Doubt it. Does it increase the prestige of the conference to hobknob in Palo Alto? Definitely. But once conferences approach the twenty member mark, they start to look like two conferences (big ten west: Stanford, cal, uo, uw, ucla, usc, Nebraska, Iowa, northwestern; big ten east: mich, msu, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn st, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota) - the pac 10 and the big 10. Is that better?

Like the Dude said, I also agree. But feel obliged to point out that THE Ohio St. would like to be in your new BIG. Purdue would like to be included as well but it's easier to ignore the Boilermakers. If the B1G went to 20 teams, the conference would probably break into 4 5-team divisions. I'm assuming Notre Dame finally agrees to join and the B1G takes Stanford, Oregon, and Washington.
USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Washington
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern
Ohio St., Michigan, Michigan St., Indiana, Purdue
Penn St., Maryland, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Illinois

[Clark Addison]

I agree with all of this.

Except for the "continues as the conference of champions" line, unless by that we just mean Bill Walton continues to call them that.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Except for the "continues as the conference of champions" line, unless by that we just mean Bill Walton continues to call them that.

Good catch. Yeah, I disagree with that line!

[All-American]

I can give you all the answers right now! No need to consult Elder Swaim:

- everyone in the pac/big12/acc would jump to the big ten if offered.
- those with a realistic shot of being offered from the pac are UW,Oregon,Stanford. If they took 4 (why would they?) they’d probably take cal.
- if those teams are taken in by the big ten, there will be a scramble to join the big xii. Leading candidates are CU, Utah, asu, and maybe arizona (plus, of course, anybody left out from the big ten).

but all this breathless waiting is unseemly. It all depends on the big ten moving (because every team in the pac would prefer the pac over the big xii). If the big ten says “thanks, we’re good”, then the pac survives and continues as the conference of champions. If the big ten says “we need more west”, the pac implodes and the leftovers run to the big xii.

Personally, I think the big 10 takes uw, Stanford, and Oregon sooner rather than later, but who knows? Does uw,Stanford,Oregon increase the value of that fat contract they just signed? Doubt it. Does it increase the prestige of the conference to hobknob in Palo Alto? Definitely. But once conferences approach the twenty member mark, they start to look like two conferences (big ten west: Stanford, cal, uo, uw, ucla, usc, Nebraska, Iowa, northwestern; big ten east: mich, msu, Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn st, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota) - the pac 10 and the big 10. Is that better?

The one piece you didn't mention is Notre Dame. I think they are the big domino right now. The B1G doesn't want to make a move that shuts off potentially adding ND someday. If ND would accept an offer, then that would trigger the cascade of other moves to follow. If it doesn't, then the B1G probably sits tight, lest they shut that door forever-- and nobody else moves in the meantime.

[myboynoah]

With the CFP expanding to 12, wouldn't it now make sense for Oregon and Washington to stay put in the PAC? They would likely have a better chance to make the playoff there than in the B1G. Or is the anticipated increase in annual revenue that big of a draw?

[Jeff Lebowski]

With the CFP expanding to 12, wouldn't it now make sense for Oregon and Washington to stay put in the PAC? They would likely have a better chance to make the playoff there than in the B1G. Or is the anticipated increase in annual revenue that big of a draw?

Totally depends on how the playoff invites are structured. No way are they going to limit it to one per conference. Nor should they.

[myboynoah]

Totally depends on how the playoff invites are structured. No way are they going to limit it to one per conference. Nor should they.

Yeah, they wouldn't do that, so on average under the current structure it is most likely that the mutiple bids would go to the SEC and the B1G. So are UW and Oregon more likely to win the PAC or end up with a top 10 rating in the B1G? And maybe the added annual revenue stream from the B1G is just too much to pass up.

[All-American]

Here are the details on the new twelve-team playoff format:

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/n...m-playoff.aspx

1. The 12 teams will be the six conference champions ranked highest by the selection committee (no minimum ranking requirement), plus the six highest-ranked teams not included among the six highest-ranked conference champions.
2. The ranking of the teams will continue to be done by a selection committee whose size, composition, and method of selection will remain substantially unchanged. The Management Committee will modify the selection protocol as required by the change to the playoff structure.
3. The four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded one through four and each will receive a first-round bye.
4. The other eight teams will play in the first round with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds either on campus or at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution (No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7 and No. 9 at No. 8.)
5. The model allows for first-round games to be played on either the second or third weekend in December in a way that best accommodates the format and the participating teams, with at least 12 days between the conference championship games and the first-round games. The Management Committee would make the final determination of the calendar.
6. Subject to reaching agreement with bowls, the four quarterfinal games and two Playoff Semifinal games would be played in bowls on a rotating basis.
7. The national championship game will continue to be played at a neutral site.
8. Subject to reaching agreement with bowls, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be assigned to quarterfinals bowls on selection day in ranking order, and in consideration of current contract bowl relationships if those bowls are selected for the rotation. For example, if the Pac-12 champion were ranked #1, the Big Ten champion were ranked #3, and the Rose Bowl were a quarterfinal site, the Pac-12 champion would be assigned to the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten champion would be assigned elsewhere.
9. With the four highest-ranked champions assigned to quarterfinal games in bowls, the opponent from first-round game winners will be assigned by the selection committee based on the bracket.
10. The higher seeds would receive preferential placement in the Playoff Semifinal games.
11. First-round games will not have title or presenting sponsors and existing venue signage will remain in place. The CFP will control the video boards.

The only thing that strikes me as unworkable about this is the supposition in No. 8 that the Pac-12 champion would be ranked #1. Seems very unlikely to me.

[SteelBlue]

With the CFP expanding to 12, wouldn't it now make sense for Oregon and Washington to stay put in the PAC? They would likely have a better chance to make the playoff there than in the B1G. Or is the anticipated increase in annual revenue that big of a draw?

If the goal were playoffs and championships I'd say you're correct. But the goal is likely money and aren't we talking about 100Million/year for B1G? And something like 25-30/year for Pac?

[myboynoah]

If the goal were playoffs and championships I'd say you're correct. But the goal is likely money and aren't we talking about 100Million/year for B1G? And something like 25-30/year for Pac?

Agree, and that might not be that big of a dilemma for the schools that get tapped for the B1G. They probably think that they can get to a top ten ranking with the added money.

Then those teams left behind in the PAC would likely be motivated to stick around and add teams rather than jump to the B12, even if means less money. I wonder how much less they'd be willing to take. $10 million? $15 million? $20 milllion?

[USUC]

I think this saves the Pac-12. This conference has the easiest path to the playoff.

[Pelado]

With the CFP expanding to 12, wouldn't it now make sense for Oregon and Washington to stay put in the PAC? They would likely have a better chance to make the playoff there than in the B1G. Or is the anticipated increase in annual revenue that big of a draw?

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