NBA 2013-2014

[MarkGrace]

I thought you might feel this way.

There are some pretty obvious problems with that thought process. The first is that he clearly wasn't fouling in accordance with his historic rates on basketball reference so I'm not really sure where that's applicable. To that point he was picking up a foul for about every three minutes he was on the floor. The second part is how much was telling him "don't foul" going to work? He had three fouls at the half and had barely played; he was already in a "hey idiot, don't foul" scenario to start the half, and yet he goes out and fouls on a reach in just 30 seconds into the half or something. Ok, so that was kind of a weak call, but now he's in an absolute do not foul situation. Like Cardiac says, leaving him in is unconventional, and pretty much every coach in the league is making the conventional decision, so he knows that as soon as he gets that 5th he's headed to the bench. And yet, he goes and picks up his 5th like another 2 minutes later. I could understand if he was getting jobbed on good aggressive basketball plays -- maybe a situation where you're attacking the hoop and end up in a questionable block/charge scenario -- that were out of his control, but these were plays made at his own volition and where he controlled the circumstances in a situation that was already the equivalent of an absolute do not foul scenario. How much does telling him "ok, now you really really can't foul" when he already really really couldn't afford to foul change things?

FTR I'm not making an argument that Spoel made the right call. When Lebron ends the game with a foul remaining you've opened the possibility that you haven't squeezed all the minutes out of him. But if you leave him in straight away and he fouls out maybe midway through the 4th (we'll be generous and say he doesn't foul out 3 mins later), and then you have a 1-2 possession game down the stretch and your best player is riding pine, the boo birds are going to be just as loud. There are obviously some other in between options in there as well, but that situation was just a no-win for Spoel. To me his decision didn't cost them the game, Bron's did. As soon as he picked up that 5th so early in the 3rd he all but killed their chances to win that thing. And like I said, he didn't need to foul, that situation was entirely within his control. If that's any other player than Stephenson he cuts his losses and let's the guy run down and dunk it. But since it's Stephenson and he can't handle the thought of getting upstaged by him he has to act like a moron and cost his team a shot at that game.

[smokymountainrain]

There are some pretty obvious problems with that thought process. The first is that he clearly wasn't fouling in accordance with his historic rates on basketball reference so I'm not really sure where that's applicable. To that point he was picking up a foul for about every three minutes he was on the floor. The second part is how much was telling him "don't foul" going to work? He had three fouls at the half and had barely played; he was already in a "hey idiot, don't foul" scenario to start the half, and yet he goes out and fouls on a reach in just 30 seconds into the half or something. Ok, so that was kind of a weak call, but now he's in an absolute do not foul situation. Like Cardiac says, leaving him in is unconventional, and pretty much every coach in the league is making the conventional decision, so he knows that as soon as he gets that 5th he's headed to the bench. And yet, he goes and picks up his 5th like another 2 minutes later. I could understand if he was getting jobbed on good aggressive basketball plays -- maybe a situation where you're attacking the hoop and end up in a questionable block/charge scenario -- that were out of his control, but these were plays made at his own volition and where he controlled the circumstances in a situation that was already the equivalent of an absolute do not foul scenario. How much does telling him "ok, now you really really can't foul" when he already really really couldn't afford to foul change things?

FTR I'm not making an argument that Spoel made the right call. When Lebron ends the game with a foul remaining you've opened the possibility that you haven't squeezed all the minutes out of him. But if you leave him in straight away and he fouls out maybe midway through the 4th (we'll be generous and say he doesn't foul out 3 mins later), and then you have a 1-2 possession game down the stretch and your best player is riding pine, the boo birds are going to be just as loud. There are obviously some other in between options in there as well, but that situation was just a no-win for Spoel. To me his decision didn't cost them the game, Bron's did. As soon as he picked up that 5th so early in the 3rd he all but killed their chances to win that thing. And like I said, he didn't need to foul, that situation was entirely within his control. If that's any other player than Stephenson he cuts his losses and let's the guy run down and dunk it. But since it's Stephenson and he can't handle the thought of getting upstaged by him he has to act like a moron and cost his team a shot at that game.

lol. You can't get past the LeBron effed up angle. Nobody arguing that Spoelstra may have screwed up is arguing that LeBron didn't screw up as well. But keep beating that drum if it helps you feel better.

The part in bold. Once again, it's hysterical how black and white this issue is for you. Call me crazy, but isn't it possible Spoelstra's decision and LeBron's decision both played a part in the loss?

Also, I disagree that it was a no-win for Spoelstra. Nobody in the national media or in the Heat front office was going to blame him for sitting LeBron until the fourth quarter. Sitting LeBron was the easy decision - if you lose, you had no choice - LeBron had five fouls. Come back and win game six.

[CardiacCoug]

MG since when do single game stats (Lebron's fouls per minute) mean more than season stats? WTF?

That's like saying if a guy is 10/10 from the field in a game that he's extremely likely to hit his next shot. Who cares what his shooting percentage is for the year, look at what has happened in this game?

[MarkGrace]

MG since when do single game stats (Lebron's fouls per minute) mean more than season stats? WTF?

That's like saying if a guy is 10/10 from the field in a game that he's extremely likely to hit his next shot. Who cares what his shooting percentage is for the year, look at what has happened in this game?

The point is that his per 36 stats for the season were way out of the context of what was actually happening in the game. That wasn't hard to see at all. And that's on top of the point that he was already in absolute do not foul scenarios and kept right on committing fouls. The odds of him making it to the end of that game if Spoel left him in were extremely low, and even if he did, the Heat were getting a diminished version of Bron and to win a game in the conference finals on the road they needed the best version of their best player. At the very minimum they weren't getting that. He screwed them, not Spoel.

[MarkGrace]

lol. You can't get past the LeBron effed up angle. Nobody arguing that Spoelstra may have screwed up is arguing that LeBron didn't screw up as well. But keep beating that drum if it helps you feel better.

Because it's pretty easy to see Bron effed up. And since you're saying the same thing as last time, I'll say the same thing as last time: so far nobody arguing Spoelstra screwed up has also made the argument Bron screwed up.

The part in bold. Once again, it's hysterical how black and white this issue is for you. Call me crazy, but isn't it possible Spoelstra's decision and LeBron's decision both played a part in the loss?

Also, I disagree that it was a no-win for Spoelstra. Nobody in the national media or in the Heat front office was going to blame him for sitting LeBron until the fourth quarter. Sitting LeBron was the easy decision - if you lose, you had no choice - LeBron had five fouls. Come back and win game six.

Could it have played a part? Sure, I already acknowledged that in the post you highlighted. I'm just saying who deserves blame and criticism for the loss. That's Bron.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Zach Lowe tweeted that Miami is averaging 115.9 points/100 possessions through 3 playoff series. Would be the highest regular season mark ever. I don't know what the all-time playoff mark is, but I'm guessing it isn't as high as the regular season record. And Miami did that against the 5th rated defense (Charlotte), a team that the Heat struggled against in 4 games in the regular season (Brookyn), and the #1 defense (Indiana). Obviously Charlotte and Indiana achieved those defensive rankings against schedules weighted more with E.C. teams, but they were good defensive teams and team defense usually picks up in the playoffs as teams take fewer possessions off and maintain their focus better. And Miami is absolutely torching it on offense right now.

JVG sounded like an idiot last night when he remarked that Miami might not have made it out of the 1st round in the West. Will SA or OKC be better than any team Miami has faced so far? Sure. But neither of them has the #1 defense and the kind of big man anchor in the middle that has been the biggest deterrent to Miami's pace and space system. A SA v. Miami rematch could be quite the offensive show, especially with Miami getting Wade, Allen, Anderson, etc. rested for nearly a week heading into it.

[CardiacCoug]

The point is that his per 36 stats for the season were way out of the context of what was actually happening in the game. That wasn't hard to see at all. And that's on top of the point that he was already in absolute do not foul scenarios and kept right on committing fouls. The odds of him making it to the end of that game if Spoel left him in were extremely low, and even if he did, the Heat were getting a diminished version of Bron and to win a game in the conference finals on the road they needed the best version of their best player. At the very minimum they weren't getting that. He screwed them, not Spoel.

I think his chance of fouling out before the end of the game was just 50/50 if he plays his usual minutes: 21 minutes left when he got his fifth. He only commits about 1 foul per about 21 minutes on average for the season and here both Lebron and the refs are going to be acting differently than normal -- Lebron doesn't want to foul out and the refs don't want to foul him out. If I recall correctly Lebron just committed one foul in 31 minutes in game 6. He can play without fouling -- he went 6 games in a row without fouling a few years ago: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-so-impressive

Or you can just sit Lebron's ass down and preemptively in your words "all but kill their chances to win that thing." I agree with you, it's Lebron's fault for the stupid fouls-- he's the best player in the world and so the coach should just put the onus on Lebron to play without fouling and help the Heat stay in control of that game.

Sure, coaches just mimic what they have seen other coaches do their entire lives and so every single coach at every level is going to take Lebron out for at least the rest of the third quarter in that scenario. I think all the coaches are wrong. It's like the conventional wisdom that the "safe play" is to always punt on fourth down. You'll see a team down by a TD with 3 minutes left punt the ball on 4th and 1 and the commentators say the coach is going to "play it safe." Playing it safe means you just give up and lose for the sake of coaching tradition and I guess to avoid criticism with fans who also think the way coaches have always done it must be right.

[MarkGrace]

I think his chance of fouling out before the end of the game was just 50/50 if he plays his usual minutes: 21 minutes left when he got his fifth. He only commits about 1 foul per about 21 minutes on average for the season and here both Lebron and the refs are going to be acting differently than normal -- Lebron doesn't want to foul out and the refs don't want to foul him out. If I recall correctly Lebron just committed one foul in 31 minutes in game 6. He can play without fouling -- he went 6 games in a row without fouling a few years ago: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...-so-impressive

Or you can just sit Lebron's ass down and preemptively in your words "all but kill their chances to win that thing." I agree with you, it's Lebron's fault for the stupid fouls-- he's the best player in the world and so the coach should just put the onus on Lebron to play without fouling and help the Heat stay in control of that game.

Sure, coaches just mimic what they have seen other coaches do their entire lives and so every single coach at every level is going to take Lebron out for at least the rest of the third quarter in that scenario. I think all the coaches are wrong. It's like the conventional wisdom that the "safe play" is to always punt on fourth down. You'll see a team down by a TD with 3 minutes left punt the ball on 4th and 1 and the commentators say the coach is going to "play it safe." Playing it safe means you just give up and lose for the sake of coaching tradition and I guess to avoid criticism with fans who also think the way coaches have always done it must be right.

I never said that. I directly said in that post above that I wasn't making the argument that he made the right call. But I know what Lebron did was the wrong call, and needlessly forced the decision on Spoel. For that the loss is on him.

[MarkGrace]

Zach Lowe tweeted that Miami is averaging 115.9 points/100 possessions through 3 playoff series. Would be the highest regular season mark ever. I don't know what the all-time playoff mark is, but I'm guessing it isn't as high as the regular season record. And Miami did that against the 5th rated defense (Charlotte), a team that the Heat struggled against in 4 games in the regular season (Brookyn), and the #1 defense (Indiana). Obviously Charlotte and Indiana achieved those defensive rankings against schedules weighted more with E.C. teams, but they were good defensive teams and team defense usually picks up in the playoffs as teams take fewer possessions off and maintain their focus better. And Miami is absolutely torching it on offense right now.

JVG sounded like an idiot last night when he remarked that Miami might not have made it out of the 1st round in the West. Will SA or OKC be better than any team Miami has faced so far? Sure. But neither of them has the #1 defense and the kind of big man anchor in the middle that has been the biggest deterrent to Miami's pace and space system. A SA v. Miami rematch could be quite the offensive show, especially with Miami getting Wade, Allen, Anderson, etc. rested for nearly a week heading into it.

This Finals should be pretty interesting. I don't think SA has a better defense than Indy on the aggregate, but they'll have a better gameplan than Indy did (no defense is the best defense!), and they've had more success defensively against Bron than any other team. It will be interesting to see if he's learned how to manage what they throw at him better this time around. He looked so paralyzed by the space they gave him last year.

There are also a bunch of other interesting factors at work this time around. There's no way Danny Green puts together the run he did last year, and without that what does the series look like? But on the flip side Manu will be much better, and with a decent Manu they could have nailed down the series last year. For the Heat Wade looks much better than he did this time last year, and obviously that's a huge factor. For as much criticism as he took the last couple of years about not making adjustments to his game, it finally looks like that's happening. He's taking more floaters and bank shots and putting his body in peril less often. They gambled home court to get this version of Wade, so we'll see if it pays off. And on the homecourt issue, SA has won their last 7 home playoff games by 15 or more. They're just so hard to beat at home. Meanwhile the Heat have one at least one rode game in something like their last 15 playoff series. Which direction will that give? It's going to be tough to get a win in SA, and it has to happen in the first two games because it's not happening in game 7.

[cougjunkie]

Nba refs suck

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

[cougjunkie]

Ginobili does not

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

You guys realize Miami won the series, right?

[New Mexican Disaster]

I hate saying this so much but I hope the mother effing Spurs win the championship.

[cougjunkie]

Greg Oden could win a title before KD.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk

[The_Douger]

I hate saying this so much but I hope the mother effing Spurs win the championship.

I can't ever pull for that soccer flopping, gesticulating Ginobili. Go Heat.