"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[Jacob]

I think the Nets moving from 6 to 5 in the lottery doubles the chances of that draft pick winning the lottery, from 5% to 10%, IIRC. Not sure what the numbers are in terms of moving up to 2 or 3.

Here are the odds of getting the 1, 2, or 3 pick for the 5th and 6th place teams. (Jazz chances are almost 1% better with their other pick).

5 .088 .097 .107
6 .063 .071 .081

Would you just add the 3 together to find the chance of getting either the 1, 2, or 3 pick? If so, that's a 29.2% chance of getting top 3 for the 5 and a 21.5% chance for the 6th place team. Those aren't terribly long odds, and are much improved by moving up one slot.

[MarkGrace]

Sacramento on a win streak, moves to within 2 games of NJ. Still a long shot, but if the Jazz lose to the Kings on Sunday then we've got a shot.

Awesome season!

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Here are the odds of getting the 1, 2, or 3 pick for the 5th and 6th place teams. (Jazz chances are almost 1% better with their other pick).

5 .088 .097 .107
6 .063 .071 .081

Would you just add the 3 together to find the chance of getting either the 1, 2, or 3 pick? If so, that's a 29.2% chance of getting top 3 for the 5 and a 21.5% chance for the 6th place team. Those aren't terribly long odds, and are much improved by moving up one slot.

That must have been what I read, a 10% increase in probability of moving up to the top 3 if the Nets pick ends up at 5 in stead of 6.

Moving into the top 3 would be significant in a draft like this, both for finding a guy that Jazz really want but also for increasing the trade value of that pick in a draft where trading picks likely won't have a lot of value. If picking in the top 3 it gets a whole lot more likely that a team just below you falls in love with a player they think can be a star and offers a decent package to move up.

Maybe we'll move ahead of Minnesota and they'll really want to draft Kyrie Irving and will send us Wesley Johnson and the #3 in exchange for the #2 and #12.

[Jacob]

Anyone wanna share what Thorpe says about Hayward here, if anything: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insid...Rookies-110330

[MarkGrace]

Anyone wanna share what Thorpe says about Hayward here, if anything: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insid...Rookies-110330

Nothing.

[MarkGrace]

The Jazz have signed Kyle Weaver. Hooray.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1534/kyle-weaver

[LiveCoug]

The Jazz have signed Kyle Weaver. Hooray.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1534/kyle-weaver

Great news!

[Surfah]

Nothing.

LOL.

If you click on the additional comments, and then a few more clicks, you'll see that he ranks Gordon 28th out of 50 rookies. In his analysis he says that he should study Afflalo's game and try to be like him and instead of trying to live up to his lofty draft spot.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

The Jazz have signed Kyle Weaver. Hooray.
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/1534/kyle-weaver

Siler says the team will pay $100,000 for 10 days of Weaver's services, plus another $100,000 in luxury tax fees. Siler applauds the move and says he appreciates that the Jazz would pay that much to get a 10 day up close look at Weaver when the season is lost.

I say why didn't they bring in a rookie from the d-league and pay 1/3 of that amount?

[TripletDaddy]

I had lunch at the Gateway. Upon walking back, I noticed no media vans outside the Delta Center. News of this latest signing probably hasn't broken widely yet.

[RC Vikings]

I had lunch at the Gateway. Upon walking back, I noticed no media vans outside the Delta Center. News of this latest signing probably hasn't broken widely yet.

Once they find out who Kyle Weaver is that place is going to be jumpin.

[Sizzle]

Here are the odds of getting the 1, 2, or 3 pick for the 5th and 6th place teams. (Jazz chances are almost 1% better with their other pick).

5 .088 .097 .107
6 .063 .071 .081

Would you just add the 3 together to find the chance of getting either the 1, 2, or 3 pick? If so, that's a 29.2% chance of getting top 3 for the 5 and a 21.5% chance for the 6th place team. Those aren't terribly long odds, and are much improved by moving up one slot.

It isn't quite that simple, because once one slot has been selected, the probablilities increase for the remaining slots, because you are removing that team from the equation. In other words, a team can only occupy one slot, so say Cleveland goes to first, their 35% chance of overtaking the 2nd spot and 40% chance of taking the 3rd spot and 5% chance of taking the 4th spot are removed from the equation. So technically the chances are a little bit higher, but not significant enough to get overly excited about.

[MarkGrace]

LOL.

If you click on the additional comments, and then a few more clicks, you'll see that he ranks Gordon 28th out of 50 rookies. In his analysis he says that he should study Afflalo's game and try to be like him and instead of trying to live up to his lofty draft spot.

That's already been posted.

[Jacob]

It isn't quite that simple, because once one slot has been selected, the probablilities increase for the remaining slots, because you are removing that team from the equation. In other words, a team can only occupy one slot, so say Cleveland goes to first, their 35% chance of overtaking the 2nd spot and 40% chance of taking the 3rd spot and 5% chance of taking the 4th spot are removed from the equation. So technically the chances are a little bit higher, but not significant enough to get overly excited about.

That is reflected in the numbers I posted, I believe. But, if say the 7th place team gets the 1st pick, then our chances of getting the 2nd or 3rd are reduced. The odds I posted are the odds prior to the lottery.

[Maximus]

from espn:

While there's some indication here Kirilenko could be back, Smith also noted via Twitter on Wednesday that O'Connor listed Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Devin Harris and Raja Bell "in Utah's core moving forward" which could mean Kirilenko might play elsewhere next season -- pending a lockout.


Please tell the raja bit is a joke.