"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[Maximus]

There's not a 23% chance that a team 8-14 moves into the top 3. Not sure how that is getting misread or misunderstood.

You're right, it is closer to 25%.

HEre is another link for you

http://bayarea.sbnation.com/golden-state-warriors/2012/4/18/2958138/2012-nba-lottery-draft-odds-warriors-chances

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

NJ, Detroit, and Cleveland lost tonight. Maintain hope for one more night I guess.

[Donuthole]

There's not a 23% that a team 8-14 moves into the top 3. Not sure how that is getting misread or misunderstood.

There's not only a 4% chance of any team moving up from 8-14 to top 3. There is at least an 8% chance by your own admission. The Jazz don't need a particular team to move up, they just need any team. So stop being stupid (it's asking a lot, i know).

[SloanHater]

There's not only a 4% chance of any team moving up from 8-14 to top 3. There is at least an 8% chance by your own admission. The Jazz don't need a particular team to move up, they just need any team. So stop being stupid (it's asking a lot, i know).

I forget how a propros some stuff deleted (it's time to tone down the personal attacks Sloan Hater. -- pelagius)

Let me explain how the NBA draft lottery works.

There are 1,000 number combos given to the 14 lottery teams based on seeding. They draw the #1 pick. Teams 8-14's best shot is 2.8% (#8) and a total probability of 8% for all teams 8-14. Assume #1 is drawn by #1 since this is the most likely scenario. You remove their 250 combos from the lottery and this leaves a 3.7% chance for #8 to grab the second pick and an 11% chance for all teams 8-14 to get the second pick. Assume #2 gets the second pick and this leaves a 5% chance for #8 to grab the #3 pick and a 14% chance that teams 8-14 get the third pick.

Realistically 14% is the best the odds are going to get for the 7 pick to drop to 8 based on a sequential lottery drawing. If you are just figuring out the odds of a combo being drawn by a seed then the table referenced is helpful.

[Donuthole]

Realistically 14% is the best the odds are going to get for the 7 pick to drop to 8 based on a sequential lottery drawing. If you are just figuring out the odds of a combo being drawn by a seed then the table referenced is helpful.

Excellent. Now you've conceded that there is at least a 14% chance that the 7th team moves back to 8. You're still wrong, however, as you fail to account for the 7 seed's chances at getting selected into the top 3.

[SloanHater]

Excellent. Now you've conceded that there is at least a 14% chance that the 7th team moves back to 8. You're still wrong, however, as you fail to account for the 7 seed's chances at getting selected into the top 3.

It wouldn't matter in this case, dumbass, if we're talking about GS having the 7th pick, which was markgrace's original question.

I was explaining the probability of the Jazz getting the pick if GS per chance finishes with the 7th pick. And yes 14% is the highest probability for ALL teams 8-14 to move up and bump the pick down a spot. I was talking about a singular team helping the Jazz out by moving from 8-14 to the top 3 and that remains, at best, 4%.

[Donuthole]

It wouldn't matter in this case, dumbass, if we're talking about GS having the 7th pick, which was markgrace's original question.

If Golden State has the 7th slot, then you still have to account for their possibilities of moving into the top 3. Even if a team 8-14 lands the #1 pick, there is nothing stopping GS from landing the #2 or #3 pick with one of their number combinations. Seems kind of relevant to a discussion about the probabilities of the GS pick moving out of the lottery.

[MarkGrace]

Ludacris is on fire tonight.

[Maximus]

I forget how a propros Donuthole is for an asshole like yourself.

Let me explain how the NBA draft lottery works.

There are 1,000 number combos given to the 14 lottery teams based on seeding. They draw the #1 pick. Teams 8-14's best shot is 2.8% (#8) and a total probability of 8% for all teams 8-14. Assume #1 is drawn by #1 since this is the most likely scenario. You remove their 250 combos from the lottery and this leaves a 3.7% chance for #8 to grab the second pick and an 11% chance for all teams 8-14 to get the second pick. Assume #2 gets the second pick and this leaves a 5% chance for #8 to grab the #3 pick and a 14% chance that teams 8-14 get the third pick.

Realistically 14% is the best the odds are going to get for the 7 pick to drop to 8 based on a sequential lottery drawing. If you are just figuring out the odds of a combo being drawn by a seed then the table referenced is helpful.

Dude, its not hard. The newspaper I linked said the same thing. #7 has a 25% chance of moving to 8. It really isnt a disputable opinion. It is a fact.

[LiveCoug]

The Jazz are just having the time of their lives.


Thanks Boler.

[LiveCoug]

Where did this Devin Harris fellow come from?

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

Where did this Devin Harris fellow come from?

Milwaukee.

[MarkGrace]

Good win!

[MarkGrace]

Man, SloanHater just getting embarrassed in this thread.

[MarkGrace]

Just checking scores and PHO and HOU lost. Jazz in the 8 spot by .5 a game.