"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[MarkGrace]

The thing with both of those guys is that they have such a massive impact on your team's defense. With those guys you can do so many things to disrupt what the other guys want to do. Great defense can take you far. Tack on a few scorers and you're in a great spot. Indiana and Memphis both suffered for points. Get Hibbert or Gasol alongside a scoring duo and you're in a great spot.

Even with that impact 29 minutes a game just doesn't cut it for that dough. The other thing that knocks down Hibbert is that he's not an every possession defender. He's not good in the SnR as he's just way too lumbering. People flipped when Vogel took him out at the end of those games against Miami, but he'd be doing that the entire year. He's just too easily exploited out on the floor because of his lack of footspeed. You're really going to give $17-20mm a year to a guy who can't even hold down 30 minutes per night and whose main calling card is defense yet is not a versatile enough to defender to be in there on every possession? That's bananas to me.

The other thing, and it applies to both Gasol and Hibbert, is that people pay for points. I see no reason to ever give these guys a max deal because the market would never warrant it.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Even with that impact 29 minutes a game just doesn't cut it for that dough. The other thing that knocks down Hibbert is that he's not an every possession defender. He's not good in the SnR as he's just way too lumbering. People flipped when Vogel took him out at the end of those games against Miami, but he'd be doing that the entire year. He;s just too easily exploited out on the floor because of his lack of footspeed. You're really going to give $17-20mm a year to a guy who can't even hold down 30 minutes per night and who's main calling card is defense yet is not a versatile enough to defender to be in there on every possession? That's bananas to me.

The other thing, and it applies to both Gasol and Hibbert, is that people pay for points. I see no reason to ever give these guys a max deal because the market would never warrant it.

When you said you'd drop Gasol, I just assumed you were meaning Pau. Pau is definitely not a max guy at this point. Probably has been for at least a year or two.

Besides only averaging 15 ppg, Marc Gasol's rebound rate is also atrocious for a guy that big whose team also anchored him in the post on defense so much. He has a career 14.0% rate, and last year it was just 13.1%. Paul George was almost that high. Paul Millsap was at 13.7. Gasol is a great defender, versatile offensive player, but not a max contract guy.

[SandYFan]

When you said you'd drop Gasol, I just assumed you were meaning Pau. Pau is definitely not a max guy at this point. Probably has been for at least a year or two.

Besides only averaging 15 ppg, Marc Gasol's rebound rate is also atrocious for a guy that big whose team also anchored him in the post on defense so much. He has a career 14.0% rate, and last year it was just 13.1%. Paul George was almost that high. Paul Millsap was at 13.7. Gasol is a great defender, versatile offensive player, but not a max contract guy.

I'm very interested to hear who you and Mark would offer max contracts to. I respect your thoughts on the NBA.

[MarkGrace]

I'm very interested to hear who you and Mark would offer max contracts to. I respect your thoughts on the NBA.

I guess the question depends some on whose money you're spending. If it's the Russian billionaire, maybe you justify paying multiple guys max deals because the tax hit means nothing to you. But to me, in the real world of most teams, it's a short list:

Bron
KD
Howard
CP3
Rose
Love (based on last season)

I could also see the justification for guys like Westbrook, Harden, Irving, and two years ago I probably would have said Griffin, but I'm less sure about him now.

[MarkGrace]

KOC just said they tried to trade up to get Burke at 6, 7, and 8 before Minnesota finally said they'd trade out of the 9th pick.

More: Burke is definitely a leader at PG, a guy who was asked to score more at Michigan than he might be here. Most positive thing about Gobert is how hard he works. Gobert might even get over to play a few summer league games. If before the draft you had told him they'd get Burke, Gobert, and Neto, he'd ask you how many future picks they had to give up to get it done. KOC feels very positive about getting the 3 guys they did for how relatively little they had to give up to get it. Neto having a good year in ACB is very impressive. Lindsey saw Neto play in Eurocamp and felt he was the best PG there. (He was MVP of Eurocamp, so not sure how much it means to say he was the best PG there, not like a diamond in the rough).

The Jazz have emphasized that about Gobert over and over. They apparently really did homework on him to make sure he wasn't a guy doing something he hated just so he could get paid. KOC and Lindsey keep saying that he plays hard, practices hard, and really wants to get better.

I saw Gobert already has workouts set up with Malone. Is Eaton available? I'm not sure what to make of Gobert. I watched some of his highlights, and his offensive ability is really low. There are some plays in there that, to be honest, are flat out embarrassing. But maybe he could be Eaton, and just stand there arms straight up in the air, and then dunk the ball when wide open. There's value to a player like that. I just can't see him ever becoming much, but a specialist role is definitely foreseeable for him. Dude gets his hands on, or alters, a ton of shots, and he's surprisingly decent for a guy his size on the SnR. With Kanter and Derrick hopefully locking down big minutes here in the years to come, my guess is they simply hope he becomes a 20 minute a night guy who can plug the middle. But he looks years away from even being able to do that.

[SandYFan]

I guess the question depends some on whose money you're spending. If it's the Russian billionaire, maybe you justify paying multiple guys max deals because the tax hit means nothing to you. But to me, in the real world of most teams, it's a short list:

Bron
KD
Howard
CP3
Rose
Love (based on last season)

I could also see the justification for guys like Westbrook, Harden, Irving, and two years ago I probably would have said Griffin, but I'm less sure about him now.

Dwight Howard? Yikes. You're telling me that today, if you ran an NBA team with non-unlimited funds, you'd sign Dwight to a $20 million/yr deal?

And re: Rose, I just don't see him being the best guy on a championship team, ever. It's something about me hating shoot-first point guards. Too easy to stop if you're an elite defense.

[MarkGrace]

Dwight Howard? Yikes. You're telling me that today, if you ran an NBA team with non-unlimited funds, you'd sign Dwight to a $20 million/yr deal?

Not only am I telling you that, but I'm also telling you that five teams have a legit shot at signing him, all of whom will offer him max deals. And there are 25 other teams that would do the same if they were in the position to sign him. Yes he's been hurt this year and had a shitty season and is temperamental, but after Lebron he's the most dominant two-way player in the league and at 27 still has time to round into full health and give you several great years. Out of all the people I picked, he'd be third on my list, behind Bron and KD.

And re: Rose, I just don't see him being the best guy on a championship team, ever. It's something about me hating shoot-first point guards. Too easy to stop if you're an elite defense.

Is this the criteria or is it who would you give a max contract? So you see the Gasol bros, Hibbert, etc. as the best guy on a championship team? If this is the criteria my answer is basically two: KD and Bron. Those are the only two guys that right now I can clearly see as the best player on a championship caliber team. But I think the pool of deserving max players is probably a little bigger than that.

Beyond that, Wade effectively played shoot-first PG on a championship team. Wade is better than Rose, but I could see it working in a similar manner if Chicago had a better #2.

[smokymountainrain]

I hope like hell the Jazz find a way to get Gobert here for summer league.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I saw Gobert already has workouts set up with Malone. Is Eaton available? I'm not sure what to make of Gobert. I watched some of his highlights, and his offensive ability is really low. There are some plays in there that, to be honest, are flat out embarrassing. But maybe he could be Eaton, and just stand there arms straight up in the air, and then dunk the ball when wide open. There's value to a player like that. I just can't see him ever becoming much, but a specialist role is definitely foreseeable for him. Dude gets his hands on, or alters, a ton of shots, and he's surprisingly decent for a guy his size on the SnR. With Kanter and Derrick hopefully locking down big minutes here in the years to come, my guess is they simply hope he becomes a 20 minute a night guy who can plug the middle. But he looks years away from even being able to do that.

I don't have any hope of him ever being anything other than an alley-oop, dunk off drop off pass, or offensive rebound guy on offense. But Tyson Chandler sure has made a nice career out of being a dominating defensive guy and only doing those things on offense.

And of course while typing these I swapped tabs to youtube and watched his Kings workout for the first time. The jumper looks smooth. And I think during his post-draft interview w/Locke he pointed out that he's a 70% FT shooter. He could shoot from 12-15 feet and get it off any time he wanted. So I still have no hope of him being anything on the block, but maybe he could be a pick and pop guy. In that interview with Locke he also pointed out that almost every shot he takes in the post would be goaltending if a defender tried to block it. He said if the refs are calling it right, it is goaltending because he shoots it down toward the rim so often.

[smokymountainrain]

I don't have any hope of him ever being anything other than an alley-oop, dunk off drop off pass, or offensive rebound guy on offense. But Tyson Chandler sure has made a nice career out of being a dominating defensive guy and only doing those things on offense.

And of course while typing these I swapped tabs to youtube and watched his Kings workout for the first time. The jumper looks smooth. And I think during his post-draft interview w/Locke he pointed out that he's a 70% FT shooter. He could shoot from 12-15 feet and get it off any time he wanted. So I still have no hope of him being anything on the block, but maybe he could be a pick and pop guy. In that interview with Locke he also pointed out that almost every shot he takes in the post would be goaltending if a defender tried to block it. He said if the refs are calling it right, it is goaltending because he shoots it down toward the rim so often.

Locke is just wrong there. When he is standing with his arms straight in the air, fully extended, he's still 5 inches short of the rim. Maybe on a hook shot if he gets a little air and is fully extended, he could shoot the ball downward and get it in the hoop, but most often the ball will go up at least a little bit initially - and even at that only on hook shots. Any other shot from the post would need to have some upward arc.

I have no expectation for Gobert offensively in terms of him getting shots away from the rim, but he does seem to have good hands and should be able to finish fairly well, so the comparison, at least offensively, to Chandler seems realistic. Chandler has been a good defensive player, but, IIRC, he's never been an elite shot-blocker. Gobert, if he pans out, should always be top 5 in the league in blocked shots. May never be the overall defender Chandler has become.

[Donuthole]

I don't have any hope of him ever being anything other than an alley-oop, dunk off drop off pass, or offensive rebound guy on offense. But Tyson Chandler sure has made a nice career out of being a dominating defensive guy and only doing those things on offense.

And of course while typing these I swapped tabs to youtube and watched his Kings workout for the first time. The jumper looks smooth. And I think during his post-draft interview w/Locke he pointed out that he's a 70% FT shooter. He could shoot from 12-15 feet and get it off any time he wanted. So I still have no hope of him being anything on the block, but maybe he could be a pick and pop guy. In that interview with Locke he also pointed out that almost every shot he takes in the post would be goaltending if a defender tried to block it. He said if the refs are calling it right, it is goaltending because he shoots it down toward the rim so often.

Not to make too much out of a single play, but that move at 3:44 is promising. He looks much more nimble there than I expected him to, and he is pretty quick to react/improvise when his baseline move gets cut off. It's not saying much, but I think he has faster feet than Hibbert.

[SandYFan]

Not only am I telling you that, but I'm also telling you that five teams have a legit shot at signing him, all of whom will offer him max deals. And there are 25 other teams that would do the same if they were in the position to sign him. Yes he's been hurt this year and had a shitty season and is temperamental, but after Lebron he's the most dominant two-way player in the league and at 27 still has time to round into full health and give you several great years. Out of all the people I picked, he'd be third on my list, behind Bron and KD.

It's just such a gamble with his back. I agree that the Dwight who was getting 27 and 15 while dominating on defense was worth building around. But now? He moves poorly. He can't jump as well. And for someone whose entire game is built on athleticism, losing athleticism is a huge deal.

Is this the criteria or is it who would you give a max contract? So you see the Gasol bros, Hibbert, etc. as the best guy on a championship team? If this is the criteria my answer is basically two: KD and Bron. Those are the only two guys that right now I can clearly see as the best player on a championship caliber team. But I think the pool of deserving max players is probably a little bigger than that.

Beyond that, Wade effectively played shoot-first PG on a championship team. Wade is better than Rose, but I could see it working in a similar manner if Chicago had a better #2.

It's a fair point. I'll have to think more on it. At the very least, your max guy has to be the best player on your team, right?

[MarkGrace]

It's just such a gamble with his back. I agree that the Dwight who was getting 27 and 15 while dominating on defense was worth building around. But now? He moves poorly. He can't jump as well. And for someone whose entire game is built on athleticism, losing athleticism is a huge deal.

It's a gamble, but I don't think it's a huge one. Think about this, he played with two injuries this year, in a system that was a terrible fit for him, had his worst year since his rookie, and yet, was more productive than Hibbert and in a comparable range to Gasol. There's no way he's playing any worse going forward. This is from Doolittle's WARP projections:

Last season, the worst since Howard's rookie year, he still put up 9.7 WARP in 76 games, which ranked 20th in the league, putting him in the 96th percentile of all NBA players. He was hobbled by recovery from back surgery and played in two unfamiliar offensive systems with two new coaches, all with a brand-new set of teammates. Yet he rated right in the cluster of the top centers of last season with Marc Gasol, Joakim Noah and Brook Lopez. My early projections have Howard bouncing back to about 14.0 WARP this season, and remaining roughly at that level for the next half-decade. Every season at that level makes him likely to be considered the best center in the game.

Value like that is awfully hard to find, especially at the NBA's biggest position of scarcity.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9440860/nba-why-dwight-howard-ideal-center-centric-offense-does-not-exist

Even with the injury concerns I still think he's among the handful of guys that merits a max deal.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Locke is just wrong there. When he is standing with his arms straight in the air, fully extended, he's still 5 inches short of the rim. Maybe on a hook shot if he gets a little air and is fully extended, he could shoot the ball downward and get it in the hoop, but most often the ball will go up at least a little bit initially - and even at that only on hook shots. Any other shot from the post would need to have some upward arc.

I have no expectation for Gobert offensively in terms of him getting shots away from the rim, but he does seem to have good hands and should be able to finish fairly well, so the comparison, at least offensively, to Chandler seems realistic. Chandler has been a good defensive player, but, IIRC, he's never been an elite shot-blocker. Gobert, if he pans out, should always be top 5 in the league in blocked shots. May never be the overall defender Chandler has become.

I didn't write that very well, but it was Gobert who made the goaltending comment. He was interesting to listen to an in interview. He convinced me that he really does like to play. I'm excited to see where he is 4 years from now.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Not to make too much out of a single play, but that move at 3:44 is promising. He looks much more nimble there than I expected him to, and he is pretty quick to react/improvise when his baseline move gets cut off. It's not saying much, but I think he has faster feet than Hibbert.

I've seen a couple of highlights on him running on the break and finishing after catching a pass while running. Like you said, not trying to make too much of little glimpses here and there, but he does move pretty well. From the little that is out there, I do think he appears more comfortable facing up and starting a move that way than he is starting with his back to the rim. His go to move might need to be a face up, one dribble to the middle, and a little hook shot. If he could make that an adequate move and pair it with a developing jump shot I'd be ecstatic.