"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[smokymountainrain]

I know some on here don't love Hollinger... but I like being able to have his information as another piece of the puzzle.

Here are the numbers of what is expected for the 3rd and 12th pick as far as estimated wins added. I believe this includes data from the 1989-2009 draft(s).

Pick 3:
Expected Wins added: 5.6 (what they would expect)
Wins added average: 6.2 (what the average has been)
Average player: Jerry Stackhouse (5.9)
Ceiling: Pau Gasol (13.9)
Floor: Adam Morrison (-1.8)

Last 10 #3 picks:
2010: Derrick Favors
2009: James Harden
2008: OJ Mayo
2007: Al Horford
2006: Adam Morrison
2005: Deron Williams
2004: Ben Gordon
2003: Carmelo Anthony
2002: Mike Dunleavy
2001: Pau Gasol

Dunleavy hasn't lived up to expectations, but given the three picks after him (Drew Gooden, Tskita, Dajuan Wagner) he seems like less of a bust. With hindsight, Stoudamire, Boozer, Caron Butler or Nene would have been better picks, but who wouldn't do things differently with hindsight. Morrison was a bad pick, but again, not a whole lot else in that draft (Roy, Rondo and Sap). The thing that scares me is this draft seems to be closer to those two drafts than any other draft listed.

Pick 12:
Expected Wins added: 2.8
Wins added average: 1.2
Average player: Nick Collison (2.8)
Ceiling: Mookie Blaylock (6.0)
Floor: Alec Kessler (-0.5)

Last 10 #12 picks:
2010: Xavier Henry
2009: Gerald Henderson
2008: Jason Thompson
2007: Thaddeus Young
2006: Hilton Armstrong
2005: Yaroslav Kovalev
2004: Robert Swift
2003: Nick Collison
2002: Melvin Ely
2001: Vladamir Radmonovic

Again, nothing really exciting at 12. Jason Thompson and Nick Collison seem to be the best of the bunch, though Thaddeus Young is looking like he may be a contributor as well.

One other point I think I'd like to make, at least as it pertains to the first pick. It seems like the bust potential is much much higher for wings or bigs than it is for guards. Of guards (specifically point or combo guards) taken in the top 5 picks since 1989, Jay Williams at #2 is the only real "bust" and even that is a stretch given his injury. Maybe Antonio Daniels taken at #4 was too high, but he at least had a productive NBA career. Maybe Raymond Felton (again, at least he's been productive), maybe Ricky Rubio will be (picked so young though and was an international player), but generally speaking, that seems to be the safer route in the top 5. Guys on this list include Derrick Rose, Russel Westbrook, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, John Wall, Mike Conley, Devin Harris, etc.

I think I'm leaning more towards taking Knight at 3 if he's available and letting Kanter slide. Knight, in my eyes, seems like a safer pick, has just as much upside as Kanter IMO, and could easily play alongside a traditional PG if needed as a combo guard.

At 12, I'm torn on if you swing for the fences with upside or lean towards somebody who can contribute with a specific skill ie shooting or shot blocking. Guys like Biyombo, Klay Thompson, Alec Burks, Jordan Hamilton, etc. are in play here IMO. I don't know though, it will definitely be interesting.

Here is the link from ESPN, in case anybody wants to read further:
NBA Draft - D.R.A.F.T. Initiative: Pick analysis - ESPN

Looking at those #12 picks, this is why I think it's perfectly okay to go with the risky pick in Biyombo. Even if you do make a "good" pick, he's not going to be a game changer.

I think a good example is to compare Utah and Seattle's 2006 draft:

The Jazz picked an very good value in Brewer at #14. The Sonics went risky and picked perhaps one of the worst lottery picks of all time in Saer Sene. What did the Jazz good pick do for them in terms of wins and losses and more importantly their goal to win a title? Absolutely nothing. What did Sene do for the Sonics/Thunder? About the same. In fact, the Thunder rebounded from that debacle and are now in a better position than the Jazz.

[Sizzle]

I think a good example is to compare Utah and Seattle's 2006 draft:

The Jazz picked an very good value in Brewer at #14. The Sonics went risky and picked perhaps one of the worst lottery picks of all time in Saer Sene. What did the Jazz good pick do for them in terms of wins and losses and more importantly their goal to win a title? Absolutely nothing. What did Sene do for the Sonics/Thunder? About the same. In fact, the Thunder rebounded from that debacle and are now in a better position than the Jazz.

Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree with you here. The 2006 Sonics/Thunder rebounded quickly because of what they did in 2007 (and luckily the Blazers took Oden instead of Durant) and they were wise in picking Westbrook. Basically they succeeded in spite of the Sene draft. Wouldn't they be in a much better spot if they had a guy like JJ Redick, Ronnie Brewer or (gasp) Rajon Rondo instead? I like Westbrook a lot but a combo of Durant, Rondo and Kevin Love is a whole lot better than Durant Westbrook and Sene.

Seattle was in a spot where they swung for the fences with Sene, missed, and forced them into full on rebuilding mode, including trading Ray Allen. Did it workout? Yeah, because they ended up with Durant. I think, Maybe erroneously, that Utah is further along in their rebuild than Seattle was. But IMO the Sene pick was one that sealed them blowing up the team.

Now, I don't think that means you can't take a risk on a guy like that, just that I dont think the examples are really a good one, especially since as I mentioned, I the Jazz actually have some solid assets to start building a team around, where Seattle had an aging Ray Allen.

[San Juan Sun]

Seattle was in a spot where they swung for the fences with Sene, missed, and forced them into full on rebuilding mode, including trading Ray Allen. Did it workout? Yeah, because they ended up with Durant.

Exactly.

Seattle/OKC rebounded in spite of Sene, not beuase of him. A just for the record, Biyombo is this year's Sene.

[smokymountainrain]

Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree with you here. The 2006 Sonics/Thunder rebounded quickly because of what they did in 2007 (and luckily the Blazers took Oden instead of Durant) and they were wise in picking Westbrook. Basically they succeeded in spite of the Sene draft. Wouldn't they be in a much better spot if they had a guy like JJ Redick, Ronnie Brewer or (gasp) Rajon Rondo instead? I like Westbrook a lot but a combo of Durant, Rondo and Kevin Love is a whole lot better than Durant Westbrook and Sene.

Seattle was in a spot where they swung for the fences with Sene, missed, and forced them into full on rebuilding mode, including trading Ray Allen. Did it workout? Yeah, because they ended up with Durant. I think, Maybe erroneously, that Utah is further along in their rebuild than Seattle was. But IMO the Sene pick was one that sealed them blowing up the team.

Now, I don't think that means you can't take a risk on a guy like that, just that I dont think the examples are really a good one, especially since as I mentioned, I the Jazz actually have some solid assets to start building a team around, where Seattle had an aging Ray Allen.

Had the Jazz drafted Sene that year, in the long run it would have been no different than their good draft pick in Brewer. I'd rather they swing for the fences than draft another Gerald Henderson or Ronnie Brewer. If neither guy is going impact your team regardless, you might as well draft the guy with the most potential.

[Sizzle]

Had the Jazz drafted Sene that year, in the long run it would have been no different than their good draft pick in Brewer. I'd rather they swing for the fences than draft another Gerald Henderson or Ronnie Brewer. If neither guy is going impact your team regardless, you might as well draft the guy with the most potential.

Yeah what did Seattle get for Sene? Absolutely nothing. What did Utah get for Brewer? An asset in a first round pick that they used to land (I believe) Al Jefferson. So again, Utah still came out better than Seattle did. If you get a rotation player at least you can use them as pieces to acquire another asset... Not just let them leave uncompensated.

[San Juan Sun]

Had the Jazz drafted Sene that year, in the long run it would have been no different than their good draft pick in Brewer. I'd rather they swing for the fences than draft another Gerald Henderson or Ronnie Brewer. If neither guy is going impact your team regardless, you might as well draft the guy with the most potential.

Ronnie Brewer was an important role player for a Jazz team that went deep into the playoffs over a couple of years. Plus, we got a draft pick for him from Memphis when he was traded. Sene would have done none of that for the Jazz. Brewer >>>>>>>> Sene.

As for this 2011 draft, I'd agree with the sentiment that you are okay with drafting for potential with the #12 in a weak draft. But if a multi-year NBA starter is available at #12, I hope the Jazz would jump on him before drafting an uber-project in Biyombo.

[Jacob]

Exactly.
A just for the record, Biyombo is this year's Sene.

Maybe. But Biyombo is significantly more developed athlete. I mean the guy is thick and strong. Isn't Sene thin?

[smokymountainrain]

Maybe. But Biyombo is significantly more developed athlete. I mean the guy is thick and strong. Isn't Sene thin?

And has been a lot more productive and has done it at a higher level than Sene.

[Jacob]

When pressed, David Locke's "Scout" believes, like me, that Valanciunas is the best Euro prospect. Also thinks he is the player in the draft most likely to become an All-Star. Still, mostly talking about defense and hustle.
Ford Says he measured 7 foot with 7-4 wingspan at Eurocamp.
Also mentioned Biyombo as the other player that might could be an all star.

[Maximus]

if it means anything, I had a dream minny picked kanter and the jazz passed on williams and took Valanciunas.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

When pressed, David Locke's "Scout" believes, like me, that Valanciunas is the best Euro prospect. Also thinks he is the player in the draft most likely to become an All-Star. Still, mostly talking about defense and hustle.
Ford Says he measured 7 foot with 7-4 wingspan at Eurocamp.
Also mentioned Biyombo as the other player that might could be an all star.

Why do so many people covering the draft apparently share the opinion that Kyrie Irving doesn't really have a shot at being an all-star?

It's like he played 3 years of college and was just okay, or was hurt his freshman year and didn't show enough the few times he did get on the court. But neither of those is the case, obviously. He was absolutely killing it before he got hurt as a true freshman PG, with the team clearly being "his" team even though he joined a defending national champion with one pre-season all-american on the roster.

I don't even hear much of an explanation that they think his athleticism will limit him, even though that argument probably could be made. But with how successful Nash and Paul have been in today's NBA someone with Irving's control and vision and efficiency won't be held back just because he isn't John Wall.

I know, not really applicable in this thread, but just was thinking about it after listening to that scout podcast.

[Jacob]

Why do so many people covering the draft apparently share the opinion that Kyrie Irving doesn't really have a shot at being an all-star?

It's like he played 3 years of college and was just okay, or was hurt his freshman year and didn't show enough the few times he did get on the court. But neither of those is the case, obviously. He was absolutely killing it before he got hurt as a true freshman PG, with the team clearly being "his" team even though he joined a defending national champion with one pre-season all-american on the roster.

I don't even hear much of an explanation that they think his athleticism will limit him, even though that argument probably could be made. But with how successful Nash and Paul have been in today's NBA someone with Irving's control and vision and efficiency won't be held back just because he isn't John Wall.

I know, not really applicable in this thread, but just was thinking about it after listening to that scout podcast.

Because Deron Williams is a borderline All-Star? Also, Chris Paul is not a great athlete?

[MarkGrace]

When pressed, David Locke's "Scout" believes, like me, that Valanciunas is the best Euro prospect. Also thinks he is the player in the draft most likely to become an All-Star. Still, mostly talking about defense and hustle.
Ford Says he measured 7 foot with 7-4 wingspan at Eurocamp.
Also mentioned Biyombo as the other player that might could be an all star.

Did they release all the numbers from Eurocamp yet?

Of all the guys mentioned in conjunction with the Jazz, Valanciunas somehow hasn't been in the mix. That makes him the guy to keep your eye on.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Because Deron Williams is a borderline All-Star? Also, Chris Paul is not a great athlete?

I wonder if is symantics with me then if we're considering Deron Williams a borderline All-Star. The guy has been the best PG in the entire league at points in his career, so if we're saying not enough fans might vote for Irving than maybe that is the case since he's a Dookie.

And I think Kyrie Irving isn't a great athlete in a similar sense to how Paul might be viewed as not being a great athlete because he plays so low to the floor all of the time and isn't a good one-on-one defender. Paul is clearly quick and lives in the lane on offense. I think Irving got into the lane pretty easily during his short time at Dook and looked plenty fast enough with the ball in his hands leading the break, but I've read some evaluations that question his athleticism.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Did they release all the numbers from Eurocamp yet?

Of all the guys mentioned in conjunction with the Jazz, Valanciunas somehow hasn't been in the mix. That makes him the guy to keep your eye on.

Surely his buyout couldn't be so bad to have him pull out if he's looking like a solid Top 6 or 7 pick...right?