"You Gotta Love It Baby" Official Jazz thread

[Sizzle]

I'm far less committed to my opinions about players, but it's less about getting soft and more about the realization that none of us -- including scouts, GM's, etc., -- having a f@#$%#$ clue what's going to happen with most of these kids when the ball goes up. There have been players I was certain would be impact guys and missed, and there have been the reverse. There were guys I thought didn't have the athleticim to be a factor in the league and became good players, and there were players whose athleticism + at least some skill made me certain they would be decent players and they didn't survive hardly a day in the NBA.

I guess I'm just embracing the fact that this thing is a huge crapshoot. When someone tells me they knew a player was going to be good or knew a player was going to be bust, I usually just laugh -- we're all clueless.

Trajon Langdon was one of those guys for me.

[MarkGrace]

Trajon Langdon was one of those guys for me.

Oh man, my list is a mile long at this point.

Snyder (thought he'd be at least a starting caliber 2)
Hansbrough (he got so little separation against college kids I was certain he was going to get smothered in the NBA)
Maurice Ager (positive he was a can't miss as a role player)
Love (didn't think there was a chance in hell he'd be an AS level PF)
Gerald Green (certain that his combo of athleticim and great shooting stroke would make him an impact wing)
Redick (thought he'd never be able to get a shot in the league)
Morrison (was convinced he'd be a legit scoring threat in the league)
Thabeet (in my mind he was at a minimum a legit defensive impact player)

And that's just getting warmed up. That list could go on forever.

[Sizzle]

Oh man, my list is a mile long at this point.

Snyder (thought he'd be at least a starting caliber 2)
Hansbrough (he got so little separation against college kids I was certain he was going to get smothered in the NBA)
Maurice Ager (positive he was a can't miss as a role player)
Love (didn't think there was a chance in hell he'd be an AS level PF)
Gerald Green (certain that his combo of athleticim and great shooting stroke would make him an impact wing)
Redick (thought he'd never be able to get a shot in the league)
Morrison (was convinced he'd be a legit scoring threat in the league)
Thabeet (in my mind he was at a minimum a legit defensive impact player)

And that's just getting warmed up. That list could go on forever.

Oh that was not a comprehensive list, but Langdon was pobably one of the first of those guys for me.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Oh man, my list is a mile long at this point.

Snyder (thought he'd be at least a starting caliber 2)
Hansbrough (he got so little separation against college kids I was certain he was going to get smothered in the NBA)
Maurice Ager (positive he was a can't miss as a role player)
Love (didn't think there was a chance in @#!*% he'd be an AS level PF)
Gerald Green (certain that his combo of athleticim and great shooting stroke would make him an impact wing)
Redick (thought he'd never be able to get a shot in the league)
Morrison (was convinced he'd be a legit scoring threat in the league)
Thabeet (in my mind he was at a minimum a legit defensive impact player)

And that's just getting warmed up. That list could go on forever.

What would be great is to see a memoir written by a long-time NBA GM to see what his list would look like, the sure-fire prospects that flamed out or the guys he pegged as losers that developed into stars or at least had very long NBA careers. It would probably look very similar to your list, even though it was coming from a professional who had watched countless hours of games and tape.

And then the second version could be that same guy talking about certain players that benefited greatly from the system they were put with and others that probably could have had different careers if they had been paired with different coaches/systems early in their careers.

Like you said, just so many variables making it a huge crapshoot.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I think my biggest draft miss was John Wallace. Coming off that NCAA tourney performance for Syracuse I was certain he was going to be Derrick Coleman with his head on straight. And now I watch Derrick Williams highlights and need convincing he's not the next John Wallace.

[Jacob]

While I agree generally, that no individual is very good at making these decisions, the consensus at the top of the draft is pretty good. When someone reaches and goes against the consensus is where you see the big mistakes.

Just look at Chad Ford's top 100, which is how he ranks the players based on the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs, who talk to him. You can go back and look at past years. I've given some examples before:

Adam Morrison drafted 3rd. The consensus was he was #9.
Sheldon Williams drafted 5th. Consensus was #20.

On the "How did he fall that far?" list:
Rondo drafted 20. Consensus 6.
Noah drafted 9. Consensus 4
Danny Granger drafted 17. Consensus 5.
Andrew Bynum picked 10. Consensus 7.
Daivd Lee drafted 30. Consensus 11.
Brook Lopez drafted 10. Consensus 5.

There are examples of the consensus being off as well, but those seem less common. Look at the past rankings and you'll see that Ford holds up fairly well. So, if you're not sure, go with the consensus.
That's why I'll be jumping for joy when Leonard (7) or Vesely (5) falls to the Jazz at 12.

Other times to worry about the consensus is when there is not data to support it. Yi and Darko are the starkest examples. That's what worries me about Kanter.


A lot of the big misses at the top of the draft are kids with bad heads: Tyrus Thomas, Beasely, Curry

[Blueintheface]

While I agree generally, that no individual is very good at making these decisions, the consensus at the top of the draft is pretty good. When someone reaches and goes against the consensus is where you see the big mistakes.

Just look at Chad Ford's top 100, which is how he ranks the players based on the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs, who talk to him. You can go back and look at past years. I've given some examples before:

Adam Morrison drafted 3rd. The consensus was he was #9.
Sheldon Williams drafted 5th. Consensus was #20.

On the "How did he fall that far?" list:
Rondo drafted 20. Consensus 6.
Noah drafted 9. Consensus 4
Danny Granger drafted 17. Consensus 5.
Andrew Bynum picked 10. Consensus 7.
Daivd Lee drafted 30. Consensus 11.
Brook Lopez drafted 10. Consensus 5.

There are examples of the consensus being off as well, but those seem less common. Look at the past rankings and you'll see that Ford holds up fairly well. So, if you're not sure, go with the consensus.
That's why I'll be jumping for joy when Leonard (7) or Vesely (5) falls to the Jazz at 12.

Other times to worry about the consensus is when there is not data to support it. Yi and Darko are the starkest examples. That's what worries me about Kanter.


A lot of the big misses at the top of the draft are kids with bad heads: Tyrus Thomas, Beasely, Curry

What was the concensus on Araujo? I remember Toronto being ridiculed mercilessly.

[Jacob]

What was the concensus on Araujo? I remember Toronto being ridiculed mercilessly.

Drafted 8. Consensus 5. That was a bad one. But that link to the 2004 draft looks dubious. It had Dwight Howard at 9. It must not be the final version of the rankings from that year.

[smokymountainrain]

Drafted 8. Consensus 5. That was a bad one. But that link to the 2004 draft looks dubious. It had Dwight Howard at 9. It must not be the final version of the rankings from that year.

Not a chance it's a final version. Howard and Okafor were the consensus 1 and 2 by a mile that year.

[Blueintheface]

Drafted 8. Consensus 5. That was a bad one. But that link to the 2004 draft looks dubious. It had Dwight Howard at 9. It must not be the final version of the rankings from that year.

Not a chance it's a final version. Howard and Okafor were the consensus 1 and 2 by a mile that year.

Yeah, no way that's correct. Toronto followed the Araujo pick by drafting Villanueva the next year, which at the time appeared worse than 2004. He turned out to be better than the consensus IIRC but again falls in the category of 'you never really know'.

[cougjunkie]

That is a nice list a few off the top of my head:

Dajuan Wagner kid scored 100 points in a high school game, twice! I thought for sure he would be a great NBA combo guard.

Ed O'Bannon (in fact I thought JR Henderson, Toby Bailey, Both Obannon brothers and Tyus Edney could play in the league)

Hakim Warrick- he has been serviceable at best

Luke Jackson- I had my reservations with him but I thought he would be a better pro than Morrison I think Morrison edges him out barely.

[MarkGrace]

That is a nice list a few off the top of my head:

Dajuan Wagner kid scored 100 points in a high school game, twice! I thought for sure he would be a great NBA combo guard.

Ed O'Bannon (in fact I thought JR Henderson, Toby Bailey, Both Obannon brothers and Tyus Edney could play in the league)

Hakim Warrick- he has been serviceable at best

Luke Jackson- I had my reservations with him but I thought he would be a better pro than Morrison I think Morrison edges him out barely.

First time I laid eyes on Toby Bailey I thought he was going to ge a stud in the NBA. Guess not.

[Sizzle]

That is a nice list a few off the top of my head:

Dajuan Wagner kid scored 100 points in a high school game, twice! I thought for sure he would be a great NBA combo guard.

Ed O'Bannon (in fact I thought JR Henderson, Toby Bailey, Both Obannon brothers and Tyus Edney could play in the league)

Hakim Warrick- he has been serviceable at best

Luke Jackson- I had my reservations with him but I thought he would be a better pro than Morrison I think Morrison edges him out barely.

What about Harold Minor aka Baby Jordan?

[CardiacCoug]

What about Harold Minor aka Baby Jordan?

I thought Marcus Fizer (Iowa State) would be a good NBA player (#4 overall) but never did much. It's amazing how many of these top picks don't even become role players.

I'm hoping the Jazz end up with Kanter at #3 and Jimmer at #12.

[Surfah]

Bo Kimble.