At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[Jarid in Cedar]

I appreciate your opinion on this. The continuous victory lap that Cuomo is doing is very unseemly, but like you say, there were no good options with the nursing home residents early on. It wasn't 100% ineptitude that some of his detractors are claiming. Lots of people died based on that decision, but it was the result of a cascade of bad outcomes. He doesn't deserve all of the vilification, but it would help to be way more humble in the face of all that death.

I view Cuomo in about the same veins I do Trump. His track record during March was pretty poor. About the only group that I give barely a passing grade in this debacle are some if the mayor's of the harder hit areas.

[Moliere]

3. As I have been saying, I don't think that much information can be gathered to compare the states responses. This is a race with a staggered start, and it is only about 1/4 of the way completed. I do think that the reopening strategy of Florida's governor (and Arizona's) was haphazard and reckless. In doing so, they have squandered the advantages that they were handed. Time will tell.

Great post overall and thanks for the commentary. I am curious why you think the reopening was haphazard and reckless for FL and AZ but not TX. My biggest issue wiht TX is that masks were not mandated. In fact, Abbott was very anti-mask unitl the hospitals filled up and now he's on board, reluctantly. I'll be honest that I know littel about FL or AZ and their reopening plans.

[Jarid in Cedar]

Great post overall and thanks for the commentary. I am curious why you think the reopening was haphazard and reckless for FL and AZ but not TX. My biggest issue wiht TX is that masks were not mandated. In fact, Abbott was very anti-mask unitl the hospitals filled up and now he's on board, reluctantly. I'll be honest that I know littel about FL or AZ and their reopening plans.

I didn't lump Texas in as I only know in passing what they have done to date. I world want to dive in further to comment. Your Lt. governor is a tool, but the governor seems a bit more balanced. My main critique for him is that he needed to allow local governance to make local decisions, then back them. I have the same problem with Cuomo. He let his personal power struggle with NYC's mayor get in the way and delayed some intervention early on that may have made a small but measurable impact for NYC.

I would add that Texas probably started the process too early, but it was a measured, stages approach instead of the free for all that was Arizona. I would add Georgia into the latter category as well.

[Northwestcoug]

I view Cuomo in about the same veins I do Trump. His track record during March was pretty poor. About the only group that I give barely a passing grade in this debacle are some if the mayor's of the harder hit areas.

Agreed. There were other poor decisions or delays that he should be excoriated for.

[Moliere]

Your Lt. governor is a tool, but the governor seems a bit more balanced.

Definitely agree on Dan Patrick. He’s a tool and just flat out weird. Abbott is a decent guy but he’s got a bit of an inferiority complex that clashes with his desire for a Texas sized ego.

[Paperback Writer]

I didn't lump Texas in as I only know in passing what they have done to date. I world want to dive in further to comment. Your Lt. governor is a tool, but the governor seems a bit more balanced. My main critique for him is that he needed to allow local governance to make local decisions, then back them. I have the same problem with Cuomo. He let his personal power struggle with NYC's mayor get in the way and delayed some intervention early on that may have made a small but measurable impact for NYC.

I would add that Texas probably started the process too early, but it was a measured, stages approach instead of the free for all that was Arizona. I would add Georgia into the latter category as well.

A problem in my part of Texas (Dallas area) is that some local/county leaders had different views on closing things down back then - they were not on the same page or it took a while to get on the same page and politics definitely factored in (and probably still does). For example, more Democratic Dallas county wanted to close down but neighboring Tarrant County (Ft. Worth) or Collin County (northern suburbs) are more Republican and wanted to stay open. That is problematic as people who want to dine out or go to a bar would simply travel (and spread the virus) to a nearby open locality. On the positive side, local leaders did not interfere with businesses that opted for a more immediate decision to close down.

[Pelado]

1. A bit of happenstance. The biggest difference between Washington(and the west coast in general) was a lack of a large influx of undetected cases from foreign countries. This is primarily due to the shutdown of travel from China on January 30th. With the exception of the one cruise ship that docked in Santa Clara, the majority of the initial outbreaks on the west coast can be traced to American citizens returning from China. It is well known that patient 0 in Washington was a student who returned from Wuhan. If you think of the 50 day scale I described originally, Washington was aware of their outbreak on about day 15 or so. The best analogy is a grass fire. The initial outbreak in Washington was a single moderate sized fire that was found within hours after it started. It did damage, but the damage was localized. On the East coast, their outbreak was 1500 small fires started in random locations in the field that were not recognized for a few days.

2. I knew I forgot to cover something last night, and this was it. The decision to force patients back into nursing homes was the type of decision that gets made when all of the options are bad choices. I always say that the view from the cheap seats are pretty damn good. Everyone always criticizes the decision from the cheap seats, but they do that without looking through a prospective lens. What were all of the options? What are the potential consequences of each decision? What is the immediacy of needed decision? So what was the situation on March 25th when the mandate was made? On that day, nursing homes and assisted living centers were not just refusing COVID+ patients, they were refusing to take ANY patient that had been in a hospital for any reason, even for just a visit to the ER for a fall, etc. They wouldn't take them until they had a negative COVID test, and some were requiring 2 negative tests. At that time, testing turn around was horrid, around 3-5 days. It was more stringent for any COVID+ patients. They wouldn't take them until they were symptom free 14 days and had a negative test. This was regardless of whether they were actually sick enough to require hospitalization. So these patients, that would typically met criteria for discharge to a nursing home or assisted living center. So, now you have a large group of patients, that do not need to be in a hospital (based on meeting discharge criteria), but are now stuck in the hospital for 3-5 days, and even longer if they are COVID+. On top of that, the ER's are starting to burst at the seams needing to admit patients to beds that are filled with patients who don't need to be there, but can not be discharged anywhere. So your choices are to force centers to take back patients to clear hospital space, or do you acquiesce to the nursing homes, keeping those patients in the hospital and turning away patients from the ER that need hospitalized. There are few other options, but they would require substantial time ( one would be to force a few homes to be COVID centers and move all of their other patients to other places, which the care centers would fight tooth and nail through legal channels). So given those two choices what was the correct choice of two very bad options? Which would result in fewer deaths? No one knows because one path was taken. This is another one of those things that fits into the category of poor care decisions that were prompted by the avalanche of patients. No other states have been forced to make that decision. In Utah, we have had to jump through all of the same hoops for patients that we send to nursing homes, psychiatric facilities, and assisted living centers. But we have had the luxury of holding the patients in the hospital until testing comes back because we have not been in a bed crunch in any meaningful way. And there are now centers designated on the Wasatch Front that are COVID centers because they have already had cases.

As far as the Javit's center field hospital is concerned, it came on line on April 1st, but it was originally slated as a COVID free center (as was the Naval Hospital Ship). This was determined by Agent Orange and the military. They thought they would take all of the non ICU, non covid patient's from the hospitals to free up room. Trouble was that wasn't the need. They needed extra space for COVID patients. That did not change until my second week in New York, so sometime around April 21st. By then it was too late for the nursing homes, and the hospitals had already reconfigured all of their own space to manage their loads. So the Javit's center was virtually unused. I did transfer 2 patients there during my stay. To me the Javit's center is the living symbol of the ineptitude of the US response to this pandemic. It was a grand facility that did not fill any meaningful need at the time when it was needed most.

3. As I have been saying, I don't think that much information can be gathered to compare the states responses. This is a race with a staggered start, and it is only about 1/4 of the way completed. I do think that the reopening strategy of Florida's governor (and Arizona's) was haphazard and reckless. In doing so, they have squandered the advantages that they were handed. Time will tell.

What's with this nuanced look at the situation? How is that supposed to get my blood boiling?

[myboynoah]

So the djt dumb dumb gang is directing COVID #s to be reported to HHS vs. CDC. Hmmmmmmmmm.

[Commando]

So the djt dumb dumb gang is directing COVID #s to be reported to HHS vs. CDC. Hmmmmmmmmm.

Yeah this is champion-level gaslighting. I know if there's anybody we can trust with the numbers of covid being reported, it's the Trump administration. :|

[Jarid in Cedar]

It is as if they are reading my posts.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6928a5_w

[myboynoah]

It is as if they are reading my posts.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...cid=mm6928a5_w

It's about time.

[Mormon Red Death]

Interesting view. Seems everyone has to go through a spike then you are done. The only anomaly is Louisiana.

[Mormon Red Death]

Well Shit.... Little league football cancelled til further notice.... most likely till the spring. what a bummer.

[BigFatMeanie]

In Utah, 7-day moving average on %positive cases is now back below 10%. This is a good thing.

[BlueK]

What? 47% of Republicans in a poll last May said they'd refuse to take a covid vaccination when it becomes available? It's embarrassing how they're so quickly turning it into the party that embraces ignorance. The Trump party needs to be annihilated in November so there can be some hope it can reform and shed the love of ignorance and xenophobia.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/17/world/meanwhile-in-america-july-17/index.html