At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[All-American]

Well, in just two weeks this analysis by Richard Epstein hasn't aged well at all.

Coronavirus Perspective



This type of happy talk was driving U.S. policy.

The known numbers right now: Overall cases: 935,581; Overall deaths: 47,223; U.S. deaths: 5,109

Too bad. Epstein is one of the most brilliant legal minds of our age. He will surely come to regard this article as a tremendous and unfortunate mistake, if he does not already.

[myboynoah]

Too bad. Epstein is one of the most brilliant legal minds of our age. He will surely come to regard this article as a tremendous and unfortunate mistake, if he does not already.

Maybe he does. He got very testy in this interview that appeared in the New Yorker.

The Contrarian Coronavirus Theory That Informed the Trump Administration

Epstein - In the next week or so, we’ll see. I will be, shall we say, much more compromised if we start to see a continuing explosion of deaths going on for two or three weeks. But, if the numbers start to level off, the curves will start to go downward.

Interviewer - I was just asking about—

Epstein - I’m saying what I think to be the truth. I mean, I just find it incredible—

Interviewer - I know, but these are scientific issues here.

Epstein - You know nothing about the subject but are so confident that you’re going to say that I’m a crackpot.

Interviewer - No. Richard—

Epstein - That’s what you’re saying, isn’t it? That’s what you’re saying?

Interviewer - I’m not saying anything of the sort.

Epstein - Admit to it. You’re saying I’m a crackpot.

Interviewer - I’m not saying anything of the—

Epstein - Well, what am I then? I’m an amateur? You’re the great scholar on this?

Interviewer - No, no. I’m not a great scholar on this.

Epstein - Tell me what you think about the quality of the work!

Interviewer - O.K. I’m going to tell you. I think the fact that I am not a great scholar on this and I’m able to find these flaws or these holes in what you wrote is a sign that maybe you should’ve thought harder before writing it.

Epstein - What it shows is that you are a complete intellectual amateur. Period.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

Social distancing works. The earlier the better, California and Washington data show.
Two weeks into mandatory stay-at-home orders in the San Francisco Bay area and Washington state, there’s evidence the curve of infections is flattening compared with other U.S. metro areas

California has handled this well. If they had Utah's per capita number, they'd have around 50% more cases. Utah doesn't have two enormous, densely populated urban areas with tons of people traveling into it. LA announced that people need to wear masks outside and they can fashion their own with a t-shirt, bandana, etc if they need to (of course, other things can happen if everyone is wearing masks).

I worry about the effect of 12,000 missionaries coming into Utah all at once and a lot of those families not taking things seriously.

[BigPiney]

Maybe he does. He got very testy in this interview that appeared in the New Yorker.

The Contrarian Coronavirus Theory That Informed the Trump Administration

He sounds like a total douche.

[myboynoah]

FUBAR

Pence task force freezes coronavirus aid amid backlash

Last week, a Trump administration official working to secure much-needed protective gear for doctors and nurses in the United States had a startling encounter with counterparts in Thailand.

The official asked the Thais for help—only to be informed by the puzzled voices on the other side of the line that a U.S. shipment of the same supplies, the second of two so far, was already on its way to Bangkok.

Trump aides were alarmed when they learned of the exchange, and immediately put the shipment on hold while they ordered a review of U.S. aid procedures. Crossed wires would only confuse our allies, they worried, or worse—offend them. And Americans confronting a surging death toll and shortages of medical equipment back home would likely be outraged.

[Omaha 680]

FUBAR

Pence task force freezes coronavirus aid amid backlash

Sounds like typical government bureaucratic incompetence TBH.

[Color Me Badd Fan]

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2...n-for.html?m=1

Businesses that have a relatively low chance at transmission should be open.

Everyone should be wearing masks, even if they're homemade.

Unless you're in a position of being a super spreader by virtue of your job, in the aggregate even tests/devices with false positives and false negatives that still yield accurate information a majority of the time should be used.

No one should take public transportation right now unless it's absolutely necessary and you're extremely careful. There should be no church or school. No restaurants should be seating anyone. Anything that brings large numbers of people cheek to jowl into en enclosed environment should be temporarily halted.

Other than that, retail stores should devise a system where they know how many people are in a store at any given time. There should be guidance on how many people can be in a store determined by square footage.

The current thing of shutting things down is fine for a few weeks, but they have to start relaunching things.

[Lost Student]

He sounds like a total douche.

It’s just a turn of phrase. He didn’t mean it. He's sorry.

[All-American]

He sounds like a total douche.

I had two classes with him in law school. One of my favorite professors. This whole episode is very unfortunate and unbecoming of him.

[wapiti]

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2...n-for.html?m=1

Businesses that have a relatively low chance at transmission should be open.

Everyone should be wearing masks, even if they're homemade.

Unless you're in a position of being a super spreader by virtue of your job, in the aggregate even tests/devices with false positives and false negatives that still yield accurate information a majority of the time should be used.

No one should take public transportation right now unless it's absolutely necessary and you're extremely careful. There should be no church or school. No restaurants should be seating anyone. Anything that brings large numbers of people cheek to jowl into en enclosed environment should be temporarily halted.

Other than that, retail stores should devise a system where they know how many people are in a store at any given time. There should be guidance on how many people can be in a store determined by square footage.

The current thing of shutting things down is fine for a few weeks, but they have to start relaunching things.

Finally, some rational analysis.

[Brian]

Not sure where to put this, but a question to those who worked at home during the good old days.
Thinking ahead to next years taxes: Are any of my home expenses deductible during the work-at-home weeks/months?

[Uncle Ted]

Coronavirus death rate much lower than previously reported, study says

The coronavirus may not be as deadly as previously suggested, according to a new study that accounts for cases that were not diagnosed.

The study published Monday in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases estimated that the death rate will be 0.66%, which is much lower than figures between 2% and 3.4% that have come out of Wuhan, China, according to CNN.

Researchers said the lower coronavirus mortality rate was determined by accounting for cases that went undiagnosed — possibly because they were mild or had no symptoms.
[...]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/31/covid-...eported-study/

But did Lancet Infectious Diseases account for NOLA...

Why is New Orleans' coronavirus death rate seven times New York's? Obesity is a factor

The coronavirus has been a far deadlier threat in New Orleans than the rest of the United States, with a per-capita death rate much higher than in New York City. Doctors, public health officials and available data say the Big Easy’s high levels of obesity and related ailments may be part of the problem.

“We’re just sicker,” said Rebekah Gee, who until January was the Health Secretary for Louisiana and now heads up Louisiana State University’s healthcare services division. “We already had tremendous healthcare disparities before this pandemic – one can only imagine they are being amplified now.”

Along with New York and Seattle, New Orleans has emerged as one of the early U.S. hotspots for the coronavirus, making it a national test case for how to control and treat the disease. Chief among the concerns raised by doctors working in the Louisiana city is the death rate, which is seven times that of New York and ten times that of Seattle, based on publicly reported data.

New Orleans residents suffer from obesity, diabetes and hypertension at rates higher than the national average, conditions that doctors and public health officials say can make patients more vulnerable to COVID-19, the highly contagious respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

Some 97% of those killed by COVID-19 in Louisiana had a preexisting condition, according to the state health department. Diabetes was seen in 40% of the deaths, obesity in 25%, chronic kidney disease in 23% and cardiac problems in 21%.
[...]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21K1B0

[Uncle Ted]

#ChinaAsshole

China hid extent of coronavirus outbreak, US intelligence reportedly says

• The Chinese government has deliberately underreported the total number of coronavirus cases and deaths in the country, the U.S. intelligence community told the White House, a new report says.
• Bloomberg, citing three U.S. officials, reported Wednesday that the intelligence community said in a classified report that China’s public tally of COVID-19 infections and deaths is purposefully incomplete.
• The secret report concludes that China’s numbers are fake, two of the officials said, Bloomberg reported. The White House received the report last week, according to the news outlet.

[...]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/coro...edly-says.html

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[Uncle Ted]

Maybe he does. He got very testy in this interview that appeared in the New Yorker.

The Contrarian Coronavirus Theory That Informed the Trump Administration

He sounds like a total douche.

Yeah he sounds like a democrat...

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[swampfrog]

Well, in just two weeks this analysis by Richard Epstein hasn't aged well at all.

Coronavirus Perspective



This type of happy talk was driving U.S. policy.

The known numbers right now: Overall cases: 935,581; Overall deaths: 47,223; U.S. deaths: 5,109

This is a known problem with humans. Software estimation has been facing this problem for decades. It's universally true. We unknowingly lie to ourselves when necessary to protect status/prestige. We subconsciously typically avoid being the bearers of bad news.

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