At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

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  • Bo Diddley
    Senior
    • Jul 2012
    • 18730

    #5446
    With CDC's projections, we'll get that ratio to 1:800 by the end of the month.

    Comment

    • Jarid in Cedar
      CS Institutional Memory
      • Jun 2009
      • 13234

      #5447
      Originally posted by Bo Diddley View Post
      On 12/26, a cumulative 1:1000 in the US had died from Covid. Today, twelve days later, that ratio is practically 1:900.
      The rate of increase has been mind boggling. I felt that I have been a pessimist regarding how severe the pandemic world be in the US. But, it has exceeded even what I thought was a worst case. I thought that we would hit about 250,000 dead by 12/31.

      I am thinking that March 1 would reflect 1 year of statistics. If we assume that we will average 15,000 dead each week until then, the death rate for 12 months will be about 1450 per million, or 1:690. Cancer and heart disease are about 1800 (1:555) and 1900 (1:525) respectively.

      If it turns out to be more like 20,000 a week, then the annual rate will be about 1550 per million or 1:650.
      "The first thing I learned upon becoming a head coach after fifteen years as an assistant was the enormous difference between making a suggestion and making a decision."

      "They talk about the economy this year. Hey, my hairline is in recession, my waistline is in inflation. Altogether, I'm in a depression."

      "I like to bike. I could beat Lance Armstrong, only because he couldn't pass me if he was behind me."

      -Rick Majerus

      Comment

      • Bo Diddley
        Senior
        • Jul 2012
        • 18730

        #5448
        Originally posted by Jarid in Cedar View Post
        The rate of increase has been mind boggling. I felt that I have been a pessimist regarding how severe the pandemic world be in the US. But, it has exceeded even what I thought was a worst case. I thought that we would hit about 250,000 dead by 12/31.

        I am thinking that March 1 would reflect 1 year of statistics. If we assume that we will average 15,000 dead each week until then, the death rate for 12 months will be about 1450 per million, or 1:690. Cancer and heart disease are about 1800 (1:555) and 1900 (1:525) respectively.

        If it turns out to be more like 20,000 a week, then the annual rate will be about 1550 per million or 1:650.
        What I haven't delved into yet are factors that might help like total cases and vaccinations that should eventually blunt the spread. I suspect we're quite a ways away from that though.

        Comment

        • Jarid in Cedar
          CS Institutional Memory
          • Jun 2009
          • 13234

          #5449
          And this is a timely article that just hit my feed.





          Sent using the Medscape App for Android[emoji769]

          These quotes stood out to me :

          "In October, JAMA (the Journal of the American Medical Association) cited researchers who said adults over age 45 were more likely to die from COVID-19 than car crashes, respiratory diseases, drug overdoses, and suicide."

          “We still only have provisional data through December 26. We should be getting more data in very soon," CDC statisticians said in the email. "To that point we estimate there were between 316,252 and 431,792 excess deaths in 2020."

          So much for the assertion that it is only picking off people who were going to die anyway.
          "The first thing I learned upon becoming a head coach after fifteen years as an assistant was the enormous difference between making a suggestion and making a decision."

          "They talk about the economy this year. Hey, my hairline is in recession, my waistline is in inflation. Altogether, I'm in a depression."

          "I like to bike. I could beat Lance Armstrong, only because he couldn't pass me if he was behind me."

          -Rick Majerus

          Comment

          • BigPiney
            Huge Member
            • Nov 2008
            • 12327

            #5450
            damn

            Comment

            • Flystripper
              Degenerate Gambler
              • Nov 2008
              • 14089

              #5451
              Yeah I never believed that bullshit.


              Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
              Dyslexics are teople poo...

              Comment

              • Moliere
                One man.....one pie
                • Oct 2009
                • 27819

                #5452
                Originally posted by Jarid in Cedar View Post
                The rate of increase has been mind boggling. I felt that I have been a pessimist regarding how severe the pandemic world be in the US. But, it has exceeded even what I thought was a worst case. I thought that we would hit about 250,000 dead by 12/31.

                I am thinking that March 1 would reflect 1 year of statistics. If we assume that we will average 15,000 dead each week until then, the death rate for 12 months will be about 1450 per million, or 1:690. Cancer and heart disease are about 1800 (1:555) and 1900 (1:525) respectively.

                If it turns out to be more like 20,000 a week, then the annual rate will be about 1550 per million or 1:650.
                Those stats are eye popping in a very bad way. The US response has been abysmal at best and that obviously starts with the leadership in DC but trickles down to the states as well. I wonder how much different things would be if the president had at least tried to work the issue instead of trying to undercut everyone and everything. The pandemic wouldn't have stopped but the death stats would surely be much better. It is interesting that states like California, where lockdowns have been more common place are doing worse or no worse that states like Texas and Florida, which have mostly been open except for a time back in spring 2020. It's clear that lockdowns don't work when people don't bleieve, or at led to not believe, that COVID is a serious issue.
                "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

                Comment

                • The_Tick
                  Made something of myself
                  • Nov 2008
                  • 7266

                  #5453
                  Originally posted by Moliere View Post
                  Those stats are eye popping in a very bad way. The US response has been abysmal at best and that obviously starts with the leadership in DC but trickles down to the states as well. I wonder how much different things would be if the president had at least tried to work the issue instead of trying to undercut everyone and everything. The pandemic wouldn't have stopped but the death stats would surely be much better. It is interesting that states like California, where lockdowns have been more common place are doing worse or no worse that states like Texas and Florida, which have mostly been open except for a time back in spring 2020. It's clear that lockdowns don't work when people don't bleieve, or at led to not believe, that COVID is a serious issue.
                  California's migrant population is one of the reasons for our problem. Multiple families living in the same home and heading out to work. Not a great recipe.

                  Comment

                  • frank ryan
                    Senior Member
                    • Nov 2008
                    • 12284

                    #5454
                    I thought I was good, but I've got junk in my lunge now. I'm worried it is pneumonia.

                    Comment

                    • Katy Lied
                      Senior Member
                      • Dec 2008
                      • 9435

                      #5455
                      China insists that it is fully back to work. Yet we've been waiting for a scooter for my dad-- he ordered one last May. All of the scooter manufacturers are chinese. And no scooters have come over from China since March of 2020. That is not back to work.

                      Comment

                      • The_Tick
                        Made something of myself
                        • Nov 2008
                        • 7266

                        #5456
                        Damn buddy. Have you been back to the Dr. yet?

                        Comment

                        • Moliere
                          One man.....one pie
                          • Oct 2009
                          • 27819

                          #5457
                          Originally posted by frank ryan View Post
                          I thought I was good, but I've got junk in my lunge now. I'm worried it is pneumonia.
                          Baby's got back!!
                          "Discipleship is not a spectator sport. We cannot expect to experience the blessing of faith by standing inactive on the sidelines any more than we can experience the benefits of health by sitting on a sofa watching sporting events on television and giving advice to the athletes. And yet for some, “spectator discipleship” is a preferred if not primary way of worshipping." -Pres. Uchtdorf

                          Comment

                          • Flystripper
                            Degenerate Gambler
                            • Nov 2008
                            • 14089

                            #5458
                            Originally posted by frank ryan View Post
                            I thought I was good, but I've got junk in my lunge now. I'm worried it is pneumonia.
                            Go back to the doctor please. Don’t be a hero here. I have heard horror stories about how quickly it can escalate in the lungs without treatment.


                            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
                            Dyslexics are teople poo...

                            Comment

                            • Bo Diddley
                              Senior
                              • Jul 2012
                              • 18730

                              #5459
                              Originally posted by frank ryan View Post
                              I thought I was good, but I've got junk in my lunge now. I'm worried it is pneumonia.
                              :yikes: Yes, go to the doctor! How's your mom doing? Still on the mend?

                              Comment

                              • Non Sequitur
                                Where did I put my bodkin
                                • Nov 2008
                                • 5773

                                #5460
                                Originally posted by The_Tick View Post
                                California's migrant population is one of the reasons for our problem. Multiple families living in the same home and heading out to work. Not a great recipe.
                                Impoverished people can be so selfish sometimes.
                                "The mind is not a boomerang. If you throw it too far it will not come back." ~ Tom McGuane

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