At what point did you / will you take the coronavirus epidemic seriously?

[tooblue]

Yeah, we've all heard these stories. The problem is they're not telling us the complete health condition of these patients. Poor health is rampant in the US and Europe. We have extended life expectancy not though increased exercise and improved nutrition, so much as powerful drugs and treatments. But Lipitor or diabetes drugs don't seem to help with Covid-19. The drugs themselves may create vulnerabilities. A friend of mine has chronic ulcerative colitis and is being very careful because his medication reduces immunity. Medical conditions are super complicated, and just dishing out anecdotes about younger people who got sick enough to go to the hospital isn't too helpful. Also, how many of them smoked? Smoking and drinking heavily is the common explanation for higher death rates among mean than women.

But while people 20-44 are being hospitalized, very few are dying.

In a perfect world, better than this clampdown would be for people to be responsible for their own fate, assess the risk, and mitigate, or assume it.

If you re-open the economy, but large numbers of individuals in the 22 - 50 year olds age group can't work because they are sick, then what was the point of opening the economy? And when we say sick, you understand people are out sick for at least 2-3 weeks, which is a best case scenario.

[SeattleUte]

If you re-open the economy, but large numbers of individuals in the 22 - 50 year olds age group can't work because they are sick, then what was the point of opening the economy? And when we say sick, you understand people are out sick for at least 2-3 weeks, which is a best case scenario.

Large numbers? I wouldn't extrapolate the relatively small numbers getting sick now to the entire population. See Germany's experience. This is one reason it's important to know who all have been infected. Many younger people have been infected and we don't even know it.

[tooblue]

Large numbers? I wouldn't extrapolate the relatively small numbers getting sick now to the entire population. See Germany's experience. This is one reason it's important to know who all have been infected. Many younger people have been infected and we don't even know it.

We've been over this before. You cannot compare the US to Germany. There are only 82 million people in the country. They have universal health care. As early as May 14 major German cities closed restaurants, bars and clubs. As I posted here the German government paid the airfare of any German citizen wishing to fly home to Germany.

Have you ever spent much time, not as a tourist, in Germany? The US and Germany are two very different countries. Regardless, you haven't answered my question: what is the point of opening the economy if the effective tax base for a country (individuals between the ages of 22 - 50) can't work because they are sick?

You haven't really thought this through have you?

[Mormon Red Death]

Right now, it is authorized as an emergency investigation treatment. It would be great if it shows some efficacy. There is a problem of quantity. There probably just isnt enough plasma of recovered patients to go around. There is technology to make hybrid mouse/human antibodies. That could potentially help also, but plasma from patients is available now as opposed to however long it would take to get the hybrid antibody mass produced.

So why not enlist a 5 thousand healthy people and purposely give them the virus and then use their antibodies?

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[SeattleUte]

We've been over this before. You cannot compare the US to Germany. There are only 82 million people in the country. They have universal health care. As early as May 14 major German cities closed restaurants, bars and clubs. As I posted here the German government paid the airfare of any German citizen wishing to fly home to Germany.

Have you ever spent much time, not as a tourist, in Germany? The US and Germany are two very different countries. Regardless, you haven't answered my question: what is the point of opening the economy if the effective tax base for a country (individuals between the ages of 22 - 50) can't work because they are sick?

You haven't really thought this through have you?

This isn't the explanation. Why don't you read the article in this morning's Times I linked. Germany has lower death rates because fewer elderly have been exposed relative to younger people who have experienced mild symptoms. Germany has been disciplined about isolating the elderly but everyone else was exposed through the same reckless behavior exhibited everywhere else. Per capita, Germany has large number of infected, but the lowest death rate.

[SeattleUte]

We've been over this before. You cannot compare the US to Germany. There are only 82 million people in the country. They have universal health care. As early as May 14 major German cities closed restaurants, bars and clubs. As I posted here the German government paid the airfare of any German citizen wishing to fly home to Germany.

Have you ever spent much time, not as a tourist, in Germany? The US and Germany are two very different countries. Regardless, you haven't answered my question: what is the point of opening the economy if the effective tax base for a country (individuals between the ages of 22 - 50) can't work because they are sick?

You haven't really thought this through have you?

I answered your question but apparently you couldn't grasp it. You can't extrapolate the current confirmed figures for sick younger people through the entire population because there are likely vast numbers who have had it and have had no symptoms or symptoms not severe enough to get tested. They need to be included in the denominator to determine the impact on younger people--both sickness rate and death rate--absent restrictions.

Your anecdote about your neighbor doesn't help.

[All-American]

We've been over this before. You cannot compare the US to Germany. There are only 82 million people in the country. They have universal health care. As early as May 14 major German cities closed restaurants, bars and clubs. As I posted here the German government paid the airfare of any German citizen wishing to fly home to Germany.

Have you ever spent much time, not as a tourist, in Germany? The US and Germany are two very different countries. Regardless, you haven't answered my question: what is the point of opening the economy if the effective tax base for a country (individuals between the ages of 22 - 50) can't work because they are sick?

You haven't really thought this through have you?

I’d say we compared the US to Germany twice and both times the US looked better.

[Bo Diddley]

I’d say we compared the US to Germany twice and both times the US looked better.

[Northwestcoug]

So why not enlist a 5 thousand healthy people and purposely give them the virus and then use their antibodies?

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That's thinking outside of the box, I'll give you that!

That would be a very hard sell knowing that a certain percentage of healthy volunteers would get sick enough to require hospitalization. I did see that vaccine trials are underway. I'm sure that this entails inactivated, or at the very least attenuated, coronavirus to minimize virulence.

I just don't see plasma donation as a mainstay of therapy. As I've said before, the concentration of anti-virus antibody is relatively small. Enough to potentially protect the 'host', but I doubt a safe amount of extracted plasma would adequately cover more than 1 person. That antibody needs to be in a higher concentration so we're not transfusing too much plasma, which can cause volume overload in patients with cardiac issues. And, there are unusual but potentially deadly affects of transfusing plasma. I had an autopsy of an otherwise healthy patient who died from a single plasma transfusion. It happens.

[tooblue]

This isn't the explanation. Why don't you read the article in this morning's Times I linked. Germany has lower death rates because fewer elderly have been exposed relative to younger people who have experienced mild symptoms. Germany has been disciplined about isolating the elderly but everyone else was exposed through the same reckless behavior exhibited everywhere else. Per capita, Germany has large number of infected, but the lowest death rate.

Again, you are not answering my question. Let's consider the article I linked to this morning which reported that 20% of New York's paramedics are unable to work because they are ill due to covid-19, resulting in emergency calls being significantly delayed in being answered:

"Some 20 per cent of the 4,500 ambulance workers — EMTs, paramedics and supervisors — are out sick, said Dr. Lewis Marshall, board chairman of the New York City Regional Emergency Medical Services Council in an interview with Reuters."

Now, let's use that modest 20% number to ruminate on the issue. What if in addition to paramedics:

20% of all medical staff can't work?
20% of all maintenance workers, across all industries can't work?
20% of all restaurant or food services related workers can't work?
20% of all hotel or tourism related workers can't work?
20% of all lawyers and courts services related workers can't work?
20% of teachers and education related workers can't work?
20% of police officers can't work?
20% of Firemen can't work?
20% of workers related to retail industries can't work?
20% of factory workers can't work?
...

the list could go on and on. But also consider the fact that not only are there potentially millions of individuals unable to work, but they also would not actively be contributing to the economy; in other words, because they are home sick they are not out in the economy spending money.

[tooblue]

I’d say we compared the US to Germany twice and both times the US looked better.

Where is the drop the mic emoji.

[SeattleUte]

Again, you are not answering my question. Let's consider the article I linked to this morning which reported that 20% of New York's paramedics are unable to work because they are ill due to covid-19, resulting in emergency calls being significantly delayed in being answered:

"Some 20 per cent of the 4,500 ambulance workers — EMTs, paramedics and supervisors — are out sick, said Dr. Lewis Marshall, board chairman of the New York City Regional Emergency Medical Services Council in an interview with Reuters."

Now, let's use that modest 20% number to ruminate on the issue. What if in addition to paramedics:

20% of all medical staff can't work?
20% of all maintenance workers, across all industries can't work?
20% of all restaurant or food services related workers can't work?
20% of all hotel or tourism related workers can't work?
20% of all lawyers and courts services related workers can't work?
20% of teachers and education related workers can't work?
20% of police officers can't work?
20% of Firemen can't work?
20% of workers related to retail industries can't work?
20% of factory workers can't work?
...

the list could go on and on. But also consider the fact that not only are there potentially millions of individuals unable to work, but they also would not actively be contributing to the economy; in other words, because they are home sick they are not out in the economy spending money.

I've answered your question and I'm not going to do it again. There are a lot of reasons not to extrapolate the 20 percent figure for New York paramedics. But your argument is premised on that.

What we should be doing is working on collecting reliable data and then based on the data make different public policy decisions for distinct demographic groups, recognizing there are tradeoffs for any approach. This in fact is inevitably the approach that will prevail.

[CardiacCoug]

Basically yes. But 55 is too young. 70. Even then, it depends on health condition. The disease is lethal at the extreme end of the elderly, and where there are deadly underlying conditions, recognizing the outliers the media likes to highlight for which we receive an imperfect picture.

Yes! Quarantine everybody older than ME! Could not agree more.

[tooblue]

I've answered your question and I'm not going to do it again. There are a lot of reasons not to extrapolate the 20 percent figure for New York paramedics. But your argument is premised on that.

What we should be doing is working on collecting reliable data and then based on the data make different public policy decisions for distinct demographic groups, recognizing there are tradeoffs for any approach. This in fact is inevitably the approach that will prevail.

What is the annual economic impact of seasonal influenza on the US economy; how many billions of dollars are lost:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3479051/

And how many billions more will be lost due to coronavirus regardless the actions taken?

What's more, if you open up the economy, how many more unions or workers will go on strike, or simply refuse to work due to concerns over coronavirus health hazards ...

More than 150K Instacart workers threaten national strike over coronavirus hazard concerns

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2020/03/27/coronavirus-instacart-workers-plan-strike-over-health-hazards/2925735001/

Amazon workers plan strike at Staten Island warehouse to demand coronavirus protections

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/amaz...us-safety.html

Again, you have not thought this through. There are serious consequences beyond the health of your stock portfolio to consider.

[Mormon Red Death]

https://chtbl.com/track/288D49/traffic.omny.fm/d/clips/aaea4e69-af51-495e-afc9-a9760146922b/14a43378-edb2-49be-8511-ab0d000a7030/b60ce786-1808-4f94-95c4-ab82017fc8fd/audio.mp3?utm_source=Podcast&in_playlist=d1b9612f-bb1b-4b85-9c0c-ab0d004ab37a

Freakonomics podcast on social distance externalities.... China will have 45,000 less death due to air pollution getting better...

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