War with Iran - DEFCON 3

[LVAllen]

The mineweeping operations are interesting to me. My guess is we will have a small corridor cleared in the next week or so big enough to allow some traffic to resume. Evidently, a tanker went through today so someone is already testing the waters.

I disagree with those of you who think this whole thing has been botched. Thus far, the operation has been very successful.

Successful based on the completion of what objectives? The number of media outlets reporting on the Epstein files?

[Shaka]

Successful based on the completion of what objectives? The number of media outlets reporting on the Epstein files?

Go back and read Rubio's speech made at the onset of the war. Those objectives have all been achieved. Iran's nuke program is in shambles, and its ability to stand up a nuclear bomb program has been set back decades. A neutered Iran is exactly what the Middle East needs.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Go back and read Rubio's speech made at the onset of the war. Those objectives have all been achieved. Iran's nuke program is in shambles, and its ability to stand up a nuclear bomb program has been set back decades. A neutered Iran is exactly what the Middle East needs.

If they can still disrupt shipping through the strait and lob missiles, they aren't neutered.

[SteelBlue]

Go back and read Rubio's speech made at the onset of the war. Those objectives have all been achieved. Iran's nuke program is in shambles, and its ability to stand up a nuclear bomb program has been set back decades. A neutered Iran is exactly what the Middle East needs.

I'd argue that none of their original objectives has been achieved. Regime change. Nope. Unconditional surrender, nope. Nuke program: how do we know? I was told in June it had been decimated. Why do I believe it's been decimated now? Why do I still read talk of needing to "go in and get" the materials? Most of the "accomplishments" have been destroying an air force and Navy that were unable to project any military power at baseline. I mean, congrats, but those branches were not a threat. I'd also argue that the pre-war situation was better than the current one in every way. You say Iran's been neutered. I see the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and they seem to have an endless supply of drones and were clearly not out of missiles pre-cease fire. This war was dumb on day one and it's dumb today.

[Shaka]

If they can still disrupt shipping through the strait and lob missiles, they aren't neutered.

I think that is getting fixed as well. My guess is the reason we didn't immediately take on the Straight was the hope that we could get them to capitulate and open the Straight on their own. That didn't happen, so now we are doing what needs to be done to open things up. I'd also wager that we've been using the ceasefire to fine-tune the targeting along the Straight so that if Iran decides to re-engage, we can immediately take out their shore emplacements and whatever naval assets they still have (I don't think they have much). I have a hunch that's why the third carrier has been brought in. The troops on board can then take over Kharg and any other problematic islands/coastal areas. I doubt Iran will do anything, as we have them over a barrel.

[Shaka]

I'd argue that none of their original objectives has been achieved. Regime change. Nope. Unconditional surrender, nope. Nuke program: how do we know? I was told in June it had been decimated. Why do I believe it's been decimated now? Why do I still read talk of needing to "go in and get" the materials? Most of the "accomplishments" have been destroying an air force and Navy that were unable to project any military power at baseline. I mean, congrats, but those branches were not a threat. I'd also argue that the pre-war situation was better than the current one in every way. You say Iran's been neutered. I see the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and they seem to have an endless supply of drones and were clearly not out of missiles pre-cease fire. This war was dumb on day one and it's dumb today.

Regime change wasn't an original objective.

[Northwestcoug]

Nah, it has to be Kennedy.

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Yeah I probably completely whiffed on that one. But Hegseth's righteous warrior mentality with God-sanction war filled with miracles is a close second.

[Shaka]

I think I stated above that I've been fascinated by the military aspects of the war, particularly what happens with the Straight of Hormuz. I've done a lot of reading, watched dozens of videos, and, of course, flipping between the news channels. I've been impressed with the Navy Decoded channel on YouTube. Check it out if you have the desire. Here's their latest:

[frank ryan]

I might want to post this on a different forum, but Hegseth and Trump foaming at the mouth and disclosing deployments ahead of time has been a nightmare for the military leading to constant adjustments.

He's a loose cannon and Christian extremist who gives hateful speeches and drinks on the job and issues constant edicts to the rank and file, a lot of which don't even make sense, instead of letting military officers do their job.

Iran is not stupid. Their existential survival is at risk and they have had decades to plan for this. We aren't close to dislodging them from Hormuz.

Their nuclear program hasn't destroyed beyond repair. It hasn't been set back decades. When it comes to diplomacy Vance has all presence and power of a gelded puppy.

There has been popular take over by popular opposition in Iran. Trump's actions and cruelty have unified that country. Our former allies aren't helping us, and why should they. Bad orange man has constantly insulted and harangued them and is now threatening NATO. They have reduced sharing intel with us. We sent AI Vance to support the near dictator in Hungary and Vance called stopping the funding to Ukraine one of the greatest accomplishments in his vice presidency.


And dear God, but Trump stay off of social media long enough to act his age and not lecture the Pope for preaching peace, or calling him weak on crime?

I'm not sure, what has been accomplished. We are more vulnerable, and less secure

[Jeff Lebowski]

Gift link to excellent WoPo infographic illustrating why it is so easy for Iran to control the Strait:

https://wapo.st/3Ool1GY

They will need to be forced by other means, because there is no way we can stop them from disrupting traffic if they want to.

[falafel]

Regime change wasn't an original objective.

there were NO original objectives. or stated differently, there were 1M different objectives.

[falafel]

This is hilarious:

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The bigger point to me is why the f#ck is Hegseth invoking religion in his Secretary of WAR! press briefings??

He compared he Press to the Pharasees this morning, which means he is comparing the Trump administration as JESUS. What the hell is up with this Savior worship in the Trump Admin?!?!

[frank ryan]

Trump is making about as much sense as Biden was during his decline and he is throwing a lot more whiny baby tantrums.

[SteelBlue]

Regime change wasn't an original objective.

To be fair, they didn't bother stating any objectives so we can only go by social media posts. But you'll find they actually did say a lot about that.

[Shaka]

To be fair, they didn't bother stating any objectives so we can only go by social media posts. But you'll find they actually did say a lot about that.

It's as simple as using the Google machine and finding Rubio's speech. He goes through it.