War with Iran - DEFCON 3

[falafel]

Here’s a live look at the CougarStadium political forum. I am the dude in the red jacket at the end taking a haymaker from falafel.

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You folded like a paper suit.

[beefytee]

I was thinking of this clip going around when it came to this thread.

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[dabrockster]

Yo Brock.

Kindly go fuck yourself.

There is a comparison to be made. That ChatGPT hasn't helped you figure it out doesn't matter in the least to me. If violent protests are ever permissible, than there exists a line of demarcation at which the rationale for resorting to violence crosses from being unacceptable to being justifiable. See, for example, the Declaration of Independence:

"Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government."

You believe the Iranian people have reached that point and that violent protests and revolution are okay. That's fine. I don't know that they are seeking liberty as much as cheaper cost of living, but it's their decision and their evaluation of their circumstances that matter, not mine. It's up to them to decide where the point is at which the long train of abuses must come to an end, and what the new Guards look like. You believe that the US has not reached that point. That's a perfectly valid viewpoint, held by most, including me. But to say that all protests in the US that result in violence are illegimate is just, to use your favorite word, obtuse. First, because it ignores the possibility of repressed societies doing what societies tend to do when oppressed. See, e.g. the Stonewall riots or the 1838 Mormon War. Hell, if 40 years of state sanctioned torture, murder, rape, and suppression was your personal line, I suspect that violence during the Civil Rights protests would have been valid. Second, because it assumes without justification that the protests become violent because the protesters caused the violence. Given that you are unwilling to accept the Iranian government's claim that these are really just foreign-sponsored terrorists, I find it remarkable that you're just so willing to accept the Trump administration's self-serving claims to cover up their own violence. It's not as if there's video of CBP attacking people without provocation or justification. Or demanding identification from someone purely because of their race. It's not as if 17 year old citizens with their passport in their pocket have been taken from their retail jobs, transported multiple miles away, attacked, and left bleeding on the street. Or maybe it's not so remarkable after all.

The funny thing is that the Iranian government takes your position. They say that they are willing to talk with protesters, but not rioters. Because the rioters are illegitimate.

In your own words. Kindly->

[dabrockster]

blah blah blah. If you got my point you would have responded to it. Instead you just kept arguing your own point. Your comments like "they are nothing alike!" alone are unconvincing. You are arguing against a bogeyman of your own creation. Or, as JL likes to state, "nice strawman".

If you say so. It is this simple. I disagree and you with me. So be it.

[Bo Diddley]

I feel like nuance is being largely ignored in this discussion.

Also, peacemakers are needed in this thread. Stop hearing what you think the other side is saying and start trying to understand what they're attempting to communicate, in spite of their human frailties.

And empathy. And maybe a big group hug.

[Maximus]

In your own words. Kindly->

Head planted firmly in sand

I can see now why certain populations didnt stand up for the atrocities their govt was making

[Moliere]

I feel like nuance is being largely ignored in this discussion.

Also, peacemakers are needed in this thread. Stop hearing what you think the other side is saying and start trying to understand what they're attempting to communicate, in spite of their human frailties.

I’m pretty sure no one is listening to anyone in this thread

[YOhio]

I'm not well-educated about what's going on in Iran. I don't have a well-informed opinion about whether the US should or shouldn't intervene, though I have a strong bias towards anything that will allow for the Persian culture to reengage with the West. I think it's of the more beautiful cultures in the world and I'd love to experience it.

[myboynoah]

I'm not well-educated about what's going on in Iran. I don't have a well-informed opinion about whether the US should or shouldn't intervene, though I have a strong bias towards anything that will allow for the Persian culture to reengage with the West. I think it's of the more beautiful cultures in the world and I'd love to experience it.

I agree. As noted, like most of the world, I'm rooting for a transition away from the Ayatollahs. It's not clear to me how close Iran is to toppling the regime this time around. I'm also just not sure what we can do or how much influence we have or can affect on the ground.

Historically where the U.S. has successfully affected or tried to affect regime change (Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Chile, even VeneSuela), it has put boots on the ground and provided military support. That requires a significant onramp in terms of time and buildup to be effective. So here, we're not talking about that as far as I can see. It's all about some kind of aerial bombings? How does that help? That could go sideways in any number of ways.

[Bo Diddley]

I agree. As noted, like most of the world, I'm rooting for a transition away from the Ayatollahs. It's not clear to me how close Iran is to toppling the regime this time around. I'm also just not sure what we can do or how much influence we have or can affect on the ground.

Historically where the U.S. has successfully affected or tried to affect regime change (Afghanistan, Nicaragua, Chile, even VeneSuela), it has put boots on the ground and provided military support. That requires a significant onramp in terms of time and buildup to be effective. So here, we're not talking about that as far as I can see. It's all about some kind of aerial bombings? How does that help? That could go sideways in any number of ways.

I've wondered if we go back to the days of using drones and picking off leadership and security forces. But we're not going to get fired in putting boots on the ground.

[dabrockster]

I am all for any level of military intervention to stop these massacres. The shutting down of the internet and cell phone services and now the hunting down of those who have Star Link is a direct attempt to close off what they are doing to the rest of the world. It is time for the world to respond and stop thinking any words will stop these evil tyrants..

Iran To Hang Man, 26, In 1st Execution Over Anti-Khamenei Protests: Reports

IHR said it had confirmed 648 people killed during the protests, including nine minors, but warned that the number of deaths was likely much higher -- "according to some estimates, more than 6,000".


Erfan Soltani, 26, was arrested recently near Tehran

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Iran is allegedly set to execute its first protester following mass arrests in connection with the widespread anti-regime demonstrations. Erfan Soltani, 26, who was arrested last week during the protests in Karaj near the capital, Tehran, is scheduled to be hanged to death on Wednesday without getting a proper trial, according to human rights groups.

"His family was told that he had been sentenced to death and that the sentence is due to be carried out on 14 January," Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) reported, quoting sources.

IHR said it had confirmed 648 people killed during the protests, including nine minors, but warned that the number of deaths was likely much higher -- "according to some estimates, more than 6,000". The internet shutdown has made it "extremely difficult to independently verify these reports," IHR said, adding that an estimated 10,000 people had been arrested.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran...ports-10740548

[myboynoah]

I've wondered if we go back to the days of using drones and picking off leadership and security forces. But we're not going to get fired in putting boots on the ground.

That's one angle. Boots on the ground could include intel gathering, but I suspect Iran has been a fairly closed target for us for years. Targeted drone attacks and/or bombings would require real time intel that could only be gathered in country. We took out Soleimani in Iraq where we could get that type of intel.

The question then is who do we target? Plenty of people ready to step in and take over if someone goes down a la VeneSuela.

[dabrockster]

That's one angle. Boots on the ground could include intel gathering, but I suspect Iran has been a fairly closed target for us for years. Targeted drone attacks and/or bombings would require real time intel that could only be gathered in country. We took out Soleimani in Iraq where we could get that type of intel.

The question then is who do we target? Plenty of people ready to step in and take over if someone goes down a la VeneSuela.

I have to believe as one of the top countries in the world with our intelligence gathering capabilities, that we most likely have people in-country who could feed us intel. No way, is it a black-out of information for us. I could also see Musk willing to play his role by sending more Star-Links in country to help ensure the world is able to see and not forgotten (See No Evil, Hear no Evil.. There is No Evil..).

Take out the leaders and all their high level staff and I think things will turn towards the protestors.

[Jeff Lebowski]

WSJ Op-Ed.

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[myboynoah]

I bet it's a lot more complicated than that.