The 2020 Presidential Election Primary Thread

[falafel]

See you Warren!!

[BlueK]

See you Warren!!

I wonder if this will really help Bernie as much as some may think. I think what support she hadn't already lost was that of progressives who didn't like Bernie for whatever reason. Those who did have already bailed on her anyway.

[falafel]

I wonder if this will really help Bernie as much as some may think. I think what support she hadn't already lost was that of progressives who didn't like Bernie for whatever reason. Those who did have already bailed on her anyway.

She was doing so poorly in the primaries that I don't think she had much support left.

[falafel]

I think everyone puts too much stock in the debates. Other than Nixon sweating next to the smooth JFK, when did the debates actually sway an election?

I do think Warren is much less likable than her supporters believe and also profoundly dishonest. When she tried to put some meat on the bones of bernies nutty ideas she instantly dropped in the polls because the math doesnt work. So her "I have a plan for that" approach would probably tank in a general election. Unless she decides to change her ideology again and go back to embracing the free market.

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I don't mean just the formal debates, but all throughout the campaign. But it doesn't matter now cuz she gone.

[BlueK]

It will be interesting to see how Bernie reacts when he has another embarrassing night next Tuesday. I'm thinking he probably stays in until the bitter end and finds some way to claim how unfair the process was.

One argument that came up both in 2016 and is coming up now is that the candidate with the plurality of delegates should just be handed the nomination even if it's well below 50%. The reason that's annoying to me is that it ignores the fact that it can only happen because there are delegates once pledged to candidates who later dropped out. Don't those folks have the right to cast a vote for whoever they want when they get to the convention?

[wapiti]

It will be interesting to see how Bernie reacts when he has another embarrassing night next Tuesday. I'm thinking he probably stays in until the bitter end and finds some way to claim how unfair the process was.

One argument that came up both in 2016 and is coming up now is that the candidate with the plurality of delegates should just be handed the nomination even if it's well below 50%. The reason that's annoying to me is that it ignores the fact that it can only happen because there are delegates once pledged to candidates who later dropped out. Don't those folks have the right to cast a vote for whoever they want when they get to the convention?

That's a horrible idea as it opens the door for extreme candidates. Also, the republicans need to change their model to get rid of winner-take-all states.

[Eddie]

It will be interesting to see how Bernie reacts when he has another embarrassing night next Tuesday. I'm thinking he probably stays in until the bitter end and finds some way to claim how unfair the process was.

One argument that came up both in 2016 and is coming up now is that the candidate with the plurality of delegates should just be handed the nomination even if it's well below 50%. The reason that's annoying to me is that it ignores the fact that it can only happen because there are delegates once pledged to candidates who later dropped out. Don't those folks have the right to cast a vote for whoever they want when they get to the convention?

That's a great argument for ranked choice voting, to be honest. Then as candidates drop out, the person's 2nd, 3rd, whatever choice could get their vote.

Yes - it would make a mess of trying to count who has how many delegates early on, as someone like Mayor Pete gets a bunch of early votes, leaving fewer delegates for others, and then as he drops out the tide could shift pretty quickly to someone else. So I can see why some people wouldn't like that.

But I'm not sure how I feel about a delegate just getting to pick whoever they want because the candidate they were promised to has dropped out. Seems like there could/should still be a way for them to represent what the people want - like ranked choice voting.

[Commando]

If the writing is on the wall, the only way to beat Trump is for the candidates to play nice and endorse the clear winner.


Actually, I don't know that. I think even the Bernie bros will vote for Biden just out of the dire need to get Trump out. I think the less of a stink Bernie makes about getting ousted, however, will determine how many show up.

[Walter Sobchak]

Utah democrats fit the Bernie voter profile perfectly. White, relatively privileged, but nevertheless economically resentful, young. Seems to me that Exmos are almost 100% Bernie Sanders supporters (I'm one of the notable exceptions, loathing Sanders as I do, but I am a Utahn and left when I was a kid). The patriarchal culture probably still has inertia even among exmo couples, and Bernie's supporters are also more often male. This is one more way, in addition to drinking wine coolers and coffee, to show their rebellion, after economic resentment helped drive them from the LDS Church in the first place.

I'm sorry you struggled to build your downline.

[Omaha 680]

I don't mean just the formal debates, but all throughout the campaign. But it doesn't matter now cuz she gone.

Ah, I see. But like you say she's out and good riddance.

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[Omaha 680]

I think if Trump loses he is rightly cast overboard and the party begins a years-long reform process. The Democrats were smart. They saw the existential threat to their party from the poisonous ideology of Bernie and they conspired to cripple him and his movement. They may lose the election in the end but they save their party. Republicans didnt recognize the threat until it was too late. I say this as a lifelong Republican who left after Trump was elected.

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[falafel]

I think if Trump loses he is rightly cast overboard and the party begins a years-long reform process. The Democrats were smart. They saw the existential threat to their party from the poisonous ideology of Bernie and they conspired to cripple him and his movement. They may lose the election in the end but they save their party. Republicans didnt recognize the threat until it was too late. I say this as a lifelong Republican who left after Trump was elected.

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Agree with this. No way they try to run Trump again if he loses. No way will Trump want to run again if he loses, IMO. He'll claim that being POTUS was a major PITA and that doing it was a service to the country, but ultimately a waste of his talents.

[tooblue]

I have a number of Facebook friends who are very left leaning artists and ardent Bernie supports. The collective melt down due to the results of super Tuesday I am witnessing is fascinating. If Biden is going to beat Trump he is going to need the independent vote, because I am not convinced the far left wing of the Democratic party will show up to the polls, and if they do they will do it out of spite and to write in Bernie.

[Commando]

I have a number of Facebook friends who are very left leaning artists and ardent Bernie supports. The collective melt down due to the results of super Tuesday I am witnessing is fascinating. If Biden is going to beat Trump he is going to need the independent vote, because I am not convinced the far left wing of the Democratic party will show up to the polls, and if they do they will do it out of spite and to write in Bernie.

I think it's good the meltdown is happening now and not at the convention. The sooner they come to terms with Biden as the candidate, the more will show up on Election Day.

[UVACoug]

The convention could still be pretty interesting, even though there is only two candidates left. In the last two Democrat primaries (Obama-Hilary & Hilary-Sanders) neither of the top two candidates were able to get a majority of delegates from the primaries, which meant the Super Delegates ultimately made the decision (going with the candidate who got the majority of pledged delegates in both case). With Democratic Party rule changes this year, the Super Delegates don't get to vote until the second round, which means if neither Sanders or Biden have a majority of pledged delegates going into the convention, there will have to be some brokering to get the support of the delegates pledged to candidates that dropped out.

Fivethirtyeight is still projecting a 61% chance that neither Biden or Sanders ends up with a majority of delegates going into the convention even after Super Tuesday results:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

If Sanders is behind and refuses to release his delegates, even though he said in the last debate that the plurality winner should be the nominee, things could get interesting.

EDIT: Nevermind. The 538 projections have not been adjusted for Super Tuesday results yet. They said they would be this morning, but I guess it hasn't happened yet.