Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[PaloAltoCougar]

Kim Dotcom. There's a blast from the past.

As the Dude said, the comments on the post are wild.

I have never heard of this "Big Serge" guy. Is he a Russian propogandist or does he have some credibility?

That first comment was fascinating, and had me mulling over whether the guy has a valid point. He/she doesn't, but it's still interesting that there must be many out there who share it.

[wuapinmon]

This isn't war related; it's just to showcase an Art Deco masterpiece in Kyiv getting decorated for Christmas & New Years. I want to go here someday, just to see the building! It reminds me of the Asheville, NC City Hall, in a way.

https://t.me/AnAmericanWhoSupportsUkraine/112

[Goatnapper'96]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9JfO_mI4oQ

I found this on Cougarboard. Once Kherson fell I thought a counteroffensive toward Melitopol made the most sense to me. I don't know what troops the Russians have available west of Melitopol or between Mariopol and Melitopol but my mind was caught on the inability of the Russians to suppress the Ukrainian partisan activities around Melitopol, which leaves me believe they are militarily vulnerable in that area, so I picked that location as my goal. But if Ukraine can break through to either -unless the Russian Army remenants caught cut off can break through to reconnect its supply line to the motherland-they will die. Perhaps the gawdless commies would assault from both west and east and force Ukraine to fight on two fronts, but I would think that would expose Russia in the Donbass if they redeploy combat power from Donbass to Southern Ukraine just north of the Sea of Azov. I would expect if Ukraine's assault is successful all western forces will likely retreat to Crimea as it holds special cultural value to the Russian people and likely Putin could keep the people behind him in protecting Crimea's annexation. But in time as long as the West/NATO supports Ukraine in its quest to liberate Crimea I don't think Russia will keep it-but it will be a huge loss of human life because I would expect Russia to actually fight for Crimea like they are determined, but the lack of logistical support will leave them helpless at some point.

[wuapinmon]

[url] I would expect Russia to actually fight for Crimea like they are determined, but the lack of logistical support will leave them helpless at some point.

Interesting video. That Kerch Bridge going down was a big deal and probably why they withdrew from Kherson. If they can take it out again, it'd be huge. Telegram is crawling with messages about the concentration of troops coming into Mariupol from the West. It would seem that his idea of Melitopol would serve the dual purposes of attacking where they ain't and perhaps drawing some troops out of Mariupol from their more entrenched positions.

[wuapinmon]

France kicking in APCs and Caesar SPHGs by rail: https://t.me/ukwarzone/9225

[wuapinmon]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...%20abstentions.

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The U.N. General Assembly approved a resolution Monday calling for Russia to be held accountable for violating international law by invading Ukraine including by paying reparations.

The vote in the 193-member world body was 94-14 with 73 abstentions.

[Goatnapper'96]

Is anyone else surprised by Zelensky's "beginning of the end" comment?

I think this is going to be a long slog for Ukraine. Russia is exposed in the South and West areas of the conflict zone, but the Donbass has been essentially Russian for a decade and the logistical supply lines are much shorter and well established.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Is anyone else surprised by Zelensky's "beginning of the end" comment?

I think this is going to be a long slog for Ukraine. Russia is exposed in the South and West areas of the conflict zone, but the Donbass has been essentially Russian for a decade and the logistical supply lines are much shorter and well established.

Is that true? I was under the impression that there is one main rail line for Russia and everything is now within artillery/HIMARS range. Not to mention the russians seem to have a real problem getting anyone to put up a fight.

[wuapinmon]

Is that true? I was under the impression that there is one main rail line for Russia and everything is now within artillery/HIMARS range. Not to mention the russians seem to have a real problem getting anyone to put up a fight.

Here's a good assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-13

[Jeff Lebowski]

Here's a good assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-november-13

I don't see anything in there about russian logistics/transport in the remaining occupied areas.

[wuapinmon]

I don't see anything in there about russian logistics/transport in the remaining occupied areas.

Oh, I was talking about the HIMARS ability to disrupt supply lines.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Oh, I was talking about the HIMARS ability to disrupt supply lines.

I definitely agree with this part:

Napoleon famously quipped: Never interrupt your enemy whilst he is in the midst of making a mistake. That aphorism has never been truer—Ukraine and its backers should take advantage of Putin’s error by continuing to press the counter-offensive in circumstances far more favorable to Kyiv than to Moscow.

Ukraine has by no means liberated the minimum territory essential to its future security and economic survival even with the victory in western Kherson, finally. The city of Melitopol and surrounding areas, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, land on the east bank of the lower Dnipro River, and territory in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts are all vital terrain for Ukraine, as ISW has previously argued.[18] Discussions about the future of Crimea and other Ukrainian lands illegally occupied by Russia after 2014 are premature. Ukraine must liberate tens of thousands of square kilometers short of those areas if it is to be able to defend itself against future Russian attacks and reestablish a functional economy.

Ukrainians and the West must bend every effort toward enabling the liberation of those lands as rapidly as possible before worrying about what lies beyond them. Momentum is an important factor in war. Ukraine has it now. Kyiv and its partners must make the most of it.

[myboynoah]

Is anyone else surprised by Zelensky's "beginning of the end" comment?

I think this is going to be a long slog for Ukraine. Russia is exposed in the South and West areas of the conflict zone, but the Donbass has been essentially Russian for a decade and the logistical supply lines are much shorter and well established.

Seems ambitious, but maybe he knows something I don't. They are reporting that the UKs have crossed over to the left bank of the Dnipro. Crazy.

This appears to be a much different UK army than the one that came to a stale mate in the Donbass. And the Russian army is depleted and not that effective. It seems to have used up its reserves.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Seems ambitious, but maybe he knows something I don't. They are reporting that the UKs have crossed over to the left bank of the Dnipro. Crazy.

This appears to be a much different UK army than the one that came to a stale mate in the Donbass. And the Russian army is depleted and not that effective. It seems to have used up its reserves.

You have to keep pressing your advantage. I like it.

[Jeff Lebowski]

By the way, everybody has been saying that fighting will slow way down in the winter due to muddy roads. That ISW article that wuap linked said the opposite. Once, the ground freezes, the army is mobile again.