Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Jeff Lebowski]

I’m no expert but I guess I’m just jaded from all the experts saying a month ago that Russia was running out of this or that or that they don’t have equipment or that the country will soon split up. It’s clear Russia has the equipment and ability to slowly win the war of attrition. They aren’t going to win quickly but they will win and the question seems to be how far will they go. Once they take the Donbas, will they press on as they will have, to a degree, broken Ukraine more and more and does it makes sense to continue to attack when Ukraine is obviously in a bad spot? I mean, why would Russia stop and give Ukraine time to get more weapons from the west when they could push on and try to take the entire thing, which obviously was the goal at the start?

I guess I need to listen to more podcasts.

Pushing on to take on the rest of the country would be difficult as it would stretch their depleted personnel and logistics. But you never know.

One thing the guys on this podcast consistently say is that we shouldn't be fooled by all the pro-ukranian videos and photos on twitter. They call this "open source intel". Fun to see the russian tanks getting blown up, but it doesn't give a balanced view of the state of the war.

[Bo Diddley]

I’m no expert but I guess I’m just jaded from all the experts saying a month ago that Russia was running out of this or that or that they don’t have equipment or that the country will soon split up. It’s clear Russia has the equipment and ability to slowly win the war of attrition. They aren’t going to win quickly but they will win and the question seems to be how far will they go. Once they take the Donbas, will they press on as they will have, to a degree, broken Ukraine more and more and does it makes sense to continue to attack when Ukraine is obviously in a bad spot? I mean, why would Russia stop and give Ukraine time to get more weapons from the west when they could push on and try to take the entire thing, which obviously was the goal at the start?

I guess I need to listen to more podcasts.

Yeah, this isn't a fast moving war. Russia is making slow progress by obliterating the countryside with superior artillery. But that progress is also coming at a cost. So far they're maintaining their lines of supply. Hopefully sanctions start to make an impact soon. I really have my doubts as to whether they'll be able to move past the Donbas anytime soon. We'll see.

[Goatnapper'96]

Yeah, this isn't a fast moving war. Russia is making slow progress by obliterating the countryside with superior artillery. But that progress is also coming at a cost. So far they're maintaining their lines of supply. Hopefully sanctions start to make an impact soon. I really have my doubts as to whether they'll be able to move past the Donbas anytime soon. We'll see.

Since Caveman 1 hit Caveman 2 over the head with a club and took his cave warfare has been about taking territory. The Ukrainians need some maneuver capacity to dislodge the ressurected gawdless commies artillery barrage. This war is a slightly more sophisticated version of WWI. I understand the weapons help from the West includes MLRS and more capable than gawdless commie arty but arty is not a maneuver element that can hold territory-it is a support element.

I also think the reporting of this war has reverted to similar to Vietnam. The west so desperately wants the gawdless commies to lose that they are grasping for any data points that support their narrative. Hence, the preoccupation with individual deaths. Individual deaths can lead to defeating the gawdless commies but are present they appear willing to endure significant numbers of those-similar to the NVA.

If the West wants Ukraine to decisively win and move the gawdless commies out of the Donbass it is going to require more maneuver (tanks and infantry fighting vehicles) capability.

[Bo Diddley]

Russia ‘not squeaky clean’ but 'is what it is' - Lavrov

“Russia is not squeaky clean,” Sergei Lavrov admits in answer to a question from Steve Rosenberg. “Russia is what it is. And we are not ashamed of showing who we are.”

The minister claimed the United Nations is “being used to amplify fake news from the West,” after being read quotes from a UN report detailing alleged Russian war crimes.

Yeah, maybe you should be at least a little ashamed of who you are. Kind of reminds me of Trump--especially when he appeals to "fake news".

[Commando]

Russia ‘not squeaky clean’ but 'is what it is' - Lavrov



Yeah, maybe you should be at least a little ashamed of who you are. Kind of reminds me of Trump--especially when he appeals to "fake news".

That could have been a direct quote from Trump. He's said the exact same thing about the U.S.

[doubled1986]

so many people are pro ukraine but dont realise what being pro nato and anti russia actually means on the flip side. so many people in US claim to be neutral or just trying to figure out what is going on/dont claim to know but then side with ukraine anyway. this was all planned by nato and we are complicit in provoking russia as much as anything russia has done wrong.

[BigFatMeanie]

so many people are pro ukraine but dont realise what being pro nato and anti russia actually means on the flip side. so many people in US claim to be neutral or just trying to figure out what is going on/dont claim to know but then side with ukraine anyway. this was all planned by nato and we are complicit in provoking russia as much as anything russia has done wrong.

This is possibly one of the worst takes I have read in a very long time. Expanding a defensive alliance is "provoking" someone else to commit offense?

I would be pleased to hear you explain what being pro-NATO means on the flip side

[Bo Diddley]

Russian bots changing hearts and minds. I see the error of my ways!

[Non Sequitur]

We have a neighborhood watch program, but I don't participate. I don't want to provoke would be burglars.

[USUC]

You can have a genuine and good faith disagreement on how US foreign policy has messed up its dealings with Russia. I believe there has been mistakes. But under no circumstances, under any coherent political or ideological philosophy, can the blame be laid for invading a sovereign country unprovoked on any party but the invading force. None.

[Clark Addison]

And a new RotY candidate arrives!!

[originalsocal]

so many people are pro ukraine but dont realise what being pro nato and anti russia actually means on the flip side. so many people in US claim to be neutral or just trying to figure out what is going on/dont claim to know but then side with ukraine anyway. this was all planned by nato and we are complicit in provoking russia as much as anything russia has done wrong.

This take might be better suited for http://www.cougarboard.com.

[LVAllen]

so many people are pro ukraine but dont realise what being pro nato and anti russia actually means on the flip side. so many people in US claim to be neutral or just trying to figure out what is going on/dont claim to know but then side with ukraine anyway. this was all planned by nato and we are complicit in provoking russia as much as anything russia has done wrong.

Why, hello there, Comrade randomword+numbers! Perhaps you might explain how Ukraine possibly joining NATO would threaten Russia in a way that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania haven't? Estonia is 25% Russia speaking, so Putin's "Poor Ethnic Russians" spiel would seem to apply at least at much as it does to Ukraine (which is to say, not at all).

Or, more likely, it is that Ukraine has significant natural resources that Ukraine wanted to use and that Putin wants to steal.

Russia is not a nation state. Russia is a Mob that sells gas and only keeps the country's lights on because it's harder to steal in the dark. They don't need to be provoked. They just need to see that their neighbor has something that they want.

[Bo Diddley]

BBC ended 24 hour coverage a month or so ago. Last couple days it looks like live coverage has ended as well. Time to dig in for the long slog, I suppose.

[Bo Diddley]

Here's an article about some of the dangerous rescue missions Ukraine pilots have flown in helicopters.

For some reason, this part really got to me.

Because the cargo bay was full, Buffalo was placed crosswise from the others, who’d been loaded aboard side by side. A crew member took his hand and told him not to worry, they’d make it home.

“All my life,” he told the crew member, “I dreamed of flying a helicopter. It doesn’t matter if we arrive — my dream has come true.”

God bless those Ukrainian soldiers going through hell.