Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Moliere]

The tide has turned in Russia's favor. They're slowly taking over the Donbas region, and Ukraine can't stop them. The West has failed to get Ukraine the weapons they need to stand their ground. Russia is paying a high cost in body count, but they're achieving their objectives. Ukraine is also paying a high cost in military and civilian lives.

How bad is it getting for the 100,000 in Mariupol? No food, no water--this thing is a disaster of biblical proportions.

Millions across the globe could be plunged into food insecurity. What a fiasco this thing is!

So does Russia stop in the east or do the push ahead for all of Ukraine? I’d think they stop once they have Donbas, and then try to use politics to take the rest over the next decade. Or, if Putin really is not long for this world, maybe he just pushes ahead and tries to take it all.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Sounds like the UKA is running out of ammo. What a shame.

[Bo Diddley]

So does Russia stop in the east or do the push ahead for all of Ukraine? I’d think they stop once they have Donbas, and then try to use politics to take the rest over the next decade. Or, if Putin really is not long for this world, maybe he just pushes ahead and tries to take it all.

Well they're paying a high price militarily to make their gains. I'm not sure how much they have left after taking Donbas. At a minimum they need to pause to reset and resupply personnel, equipment, beans & bullets. Ukraine will want to keep Russia engaged with counter-attacks to keep them from reconstituting their combat power.

I doubt Russia has the ability to move much past Donbas. I think their next move is either Kharkiv or Odesa--probably Odesa.

We need to resupply Ukraine faster!

[myboynoah]

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[PaloAltoCougar]

I've read about the Javelin's effectiveness as an anti-armor weapon. Essentially, the guy holding the Javelin launcher spots a target, clicks a cursor on it, which uploads the coordinates to the Javelin missile. The missile is launched (and interestingly the missile has two motors: one is just strong enough to get the missile out of the tube and away from the soldier, the second motors then kicks in, far enough way not to toast the solder) and heads to the target, allowing the soldier to immediately withdraw and run to safety, avoiding return fire.

I'm curious if there's a system using stealth drones that can hover over a battlefield, directing Javelins (or small missiles with greater range) to multiple targets with pinpoint accuracy, with drone operators sitting in, say, a comfy chair in the U.S.

[Green Monstah]

Well they're paying a high price militarily to make their gains. I'm not sure how much they have left after taking Donbas. At a minimum they need to pause to reset and resupply personnel, equipment, beans & bullets. Ukraine will want to keep Russia engaged with counter-attacks to keep them from reconstituting their combat power.

I doubt Russia has the ability to move much past Donbas. I think their next move is either Kharkiv or Odesa--probably Odesa.

We need to resupply Ukraine faster!

I'm pretty sure Russia's MO when it comes to war is simply to out-man the opposition. Casualties and short-term losses are offset by massive human resources and a disregard for those resources.

[Bo Diddley]

I'm pretty sure Russia's MO when it comes to war is simply to out-man the opposition. Casualties and short-term losses are offset by massive human resources and a disregard for those resources.

Can't argue with this. But those personnel need equipment and ordnance to send Ukraine's way. I'm hoping that one day we'll wake up to find that Russia has run out of those.

[Pelado]

I'm pretty sure Russia's MO when it comes to war is simply to out-man the opposition. Casualties and short-term losses are offset by massive human resources and a disregard for those resources.

I've heard the following quote attributed to General Grant:

"I have more men than they have bullets."

[Jeff Lebowski]

I'm pretty sure Russia's MO when it comes to war is simply to out-man the opposition. Casualties and short-term losses are offset by massive human resources and a disregard for those resources.

I don't think this is correct. Russia has a very significant human resources problem. They are moving BTGs around to concentrate on high priority targets (Severodonetsk, etc) due to personnel shortages which makes then unable to advance on other fronts. They have used all of their professional soldiers and the next step is conscription, but that has logistical and political problems. The UKA has a worse personnel problem, but the critical difference right now is material resources. This has turned into an artillery battle and the Russians have an endless supply of ammo and weapons while the UKA is low on equipment and almost out of ammo. The west has been too slow in shipping weapons and ammo and the UKA has to be trained on how to use and maintain the new equipment. The circumstances are grim.

[Bo Diddley]

I don't think this is correct. Russia has a very significant human resources problem. They are moving BTGs around to concentrate on high priority targets (Severodonetsk, etc) due to personnel shortages which makes then unable to advance on other fronts. They have used all of their professional soldiers and the next step is conscription, but that has logistical and political problems. The UKA has a worse personnel problem, but the critical difference right now is material resources. This has turned into an artillery battle and the Russians have an endless supply of ammo and weapons while the UKA is low on equipment and almost out of ammo. The west has been too slow in shipping weapons and ammo and the UKA has to be trained on how to use and maintain the new equipment. The circumstances are grim.

Yes, the reality is they're having personnel problems due to attrition. It takes time to train people to do certain jobs and develop leaders, and mixing and matching only goes so far. That said, Russia has sent in how many troops to Ukraine? 150,000? 200,000? They have over 1,000,000 active troops and 2,000,000 reserve troops. Maybe that's just on paper, and there are other posts that need to be filled besides the war in Ukraine. They certainly do have bodies to use as cannon fodder.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Yes, the reality is they're having personnel problems due to attrition. It takes time to train people to do certain jobs and develop leaders, and mixing and matching only goes so far. That said, Russia has sent in how many troops to Ukraine? 150,000? 200,000? They have over 1,000,000 active troops and 2,000,000 reserve troops. Maybe that's just on paper, and there are other posts that need to be filled besides the war in Ukraine. They certainly do have bodies to use as cannon fodder.

I highly recommend the "War on the Rocks" podcast. The most recent episode discusses the Russian personnel shortage issues.

[Bo Diddley]

I highly recommend the "War on the Rocks" podcast. The most recent episode discusses the Russian personnel shortage issues.

Is it from June 2? "NOT BUILT FOR PURPOSE: THE RUSSIAN MILITARY’S ILL-FATED FORCE DESIGN"

EDIT: Looks like the latest is: "The Most Dangerous Phase for Ukraine?"

[Jeff Lebowski]

EDIT: Looks like the latest is: "The Most Dangerous Phase for Ukraine?"

^This one.

[Bo Diddley]

I highly recommend the "War on the Rocks" podcast. The most recent episode discusses the Russian personnel shortage issues.

Michael Kofman is a smart dude. SU pointed to one of his discussions on the Twitter a little while back, and I've been following him. He brings up a great point about sustaining the equipment in the field that Ukraine gets from the West. It's not so easy to just give them the equipment to fight with. There's so much that goes into keeping it operational so they can continue to use it. And how all of Europe is now short the old Soviet rounds of artillery for Ukraine to reload with in the equipment they are currently using. No quick fix or easy answers.

[Moliere]

^This one.

I’m no expert but I guess I’m just jaded from all the experts saying a month ago that Russia was running out of this or that or that they don’t have equipment or that the country will soon split up. It’s clear Russia has the equipment and ability to slowly win the war of attrition. They aren’t going to win quickly but they will win and the question seems to be how far will they go. Once they take the Donbas, will they press on as they will have, to a degree, broken Ukraine more and more and does it makes sense to continue to attack when Ukraine is obviously in a bad spot? I mean, why would Russia stop and give Ukraine time to get more weapons from the west when they could push on and try to take the entire thing, which obviously was the goal at the start?

I guess I need to listen to more podcasts.