Ukraine - somebody explain to me

[Green Monstah]

I'm not buying the narrative that a crazed Putin is simply trying to restore the Russian Emporium.

Dude has used war to rally the support of the people before. Maybe that's all this is.

I just can't shake the thought that this is a joint Sino-Russian effort to probe the West's limits on unilateral, military expansion. The sanctions were completely foreseeable. Why take that risk (particularly since Russian prosperity is they lynchpin for Putin's popularity) unless you have assurances from another Superpower? If not, then maybe the "Putin has lost it' narrative is correct.

[Moliere]

We can still hate them though, right?

Yes, you can still hate the Russians.

[Northwestcoug]

I'm starting to feel pessimistic again, like Ukraine is the underdog in the battle of a film where they do well initially then the tide turns. I do think that Putin's ouster is most likely inevitable, but I don't know what Ukraine will look like before it happens. I think a second cold war is imminent, though I hope not to the extent of the last one.

Just sad all around.

[Green Monstah]

Call we stop buying Russia oil and buy more West Texas oil?

I could be way off on this, but I don't think we buy much Russian oil. EU Zone is probably a different story...

[Jeff Lebowski]

At least the GOP'ers are doing something that hurts Putin now...


https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rep...curity-council

I wonder if the Dems will block this one too.

Members of the UN Council walking out on the speech of Russia's Minister of Foreign Affairs....

Who cares? The UN is a joke.

[Uncle Ted]

Who cares? The UN is a joke.

Yeah, no kidding.... didn't Drumpf get us out of that stoopid UN human rights council?

[Uncle Ted]

I could be way off on this, but I don't think we buy much Russian oil. EU Zone is probably a different story...

(About 8% or 672,000 barrels a day). Why are we buying any?

[beefytee]

This does not end well for him.

I agree with this. The more concerning part is the collateral damage that he causes to his country and the rest of the world.

[PaloAltoCougar]

I'm starting to feel pessimistic again, like Ukraine is the underdog in the battle of a film where they do well initially then the tide turns. I do think that Putin's ouster is most likely inevitable, but I don't know what Ukraine will look like before it happens. I think a second cold war is imminent, though I hope not to the extent of the last one.

Just sad all around.

Ukraine will look like Rocky Balboa at the end of the first bout with Creed, but in the long run it will have won.

[Northwestcoug]

Ukraine will look like Rocky Balboa at the end of the first bout with Creed, but in the long run it will have won.

I hope so. But I don't want that many sequels!

[LVAllen]

As part of the "denazification" of Ukraine, Putin bombs a Holocaust Memorial site.

EDIT: The Russia Minister of Defense claimed that the attacks in Ukraine were carried out with "high-precision" weapons. So, either their "high-precision" weapons" aren't, or they are precise and the attack was further evidence of Russian asshattery. Or perhaps there's an interpretation problem, and "high-precision" only means that missiles fired from inside Russia successfully found themselves on the ground outside of Russia.

[Pelado]

I'm not buying the narrative that a crazed Putin is simply trying to restore the Russian Emporium.

Dude has used war to rally the support of the people before. Maybe that's all this is.

I just can't shake the thought that this is a joint Sino-Russian effort to probe the West's limits on unilateral, military expansion. The sanctions were completely foreseeable. Why take that risk (particularly since Russian prosperity is they lynchpin for Putin's popularity) unless you have assurances from another Superpower? If not, then maybe the "Putin has lost it' narrative is correct.

There was a youtube explainer video posted somewhere on this CS interwebs. I don't see where it's posted now, but here's a brief overview:

The video talked about NATO and how Russia wants a buffer zone with a more limited frontier, just in case NATO is or becomes hostile. But the primary reason for the invasion is likely because of energy.

Russia's pipelines to Europe - built during the USSR days - run through Ukraine. Ukraine, since becoming independent, charges billions in royalties for the oil and natural gas flowing through the pipelines. So Russia has built (and is building) alternate pipelines that bypass Ukraine, going through the Black Sea, the North Sea, and Belarus.

In 2012, large natural gas deposits were discovered in the Black Sea in Ukrainian waters. Ukraine also has energy resources both in Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine. Unfortunately, they don't have the technology to extract the natural gas. So they contracted with western companies like Shell. Ukraine selling its own natural gas could undermine the market for Russia.

Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, annexing it for their own benefit. The vast majority of the newly-discovered natural gas in the Black Sea was now under Russian control. Also, they seized a bunch of extraction equipment in the process. The uncertainty and threat of further Russian invasion spooked the western energy companies, who got out of their contracts and out of Ukraine.

Crimea has a pretty dry climate with very little fresh water. Ukraine had a canal that provided most of the water to the peninsula. After Russia took Crimea, Ukraine filled in the canal with concrete. Crimea's main reservoir is now at 7% capacity.

Russia's intent now may be to take over the remaining natural gas resources, to re-open the canal for Crimea, and/or other stuff.

I wouldn't be surprised if Putin sees himself as restoring the Russian or Soviet Empire, but I think his calculus for invading Ukraine is more about controlling the natural resources.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Wouldn't be surprised if Putin sees himself as restoring the Russian or Soviet Empire, but I think his calculus for invading Ukraine is more about controlling the natural resources.

Both can be true. Multi-variable calculus.

[Uncle Ted]

There was a youtube explainer video posted somewhere on this CS interwebs. I don't see where it's posted now, but here's a brief overview:

The video talked about NATO and how Russia wants a buffer zone with a more limited frontier, just in case NATO is or becomes hostile. But the primary reason for the invasion is likely because of energy.

Russia's pipelines to Europe - built during the USSR days - run through Ukraine. Ukraine, since becoming independent, charges billions in royalties for the oil and natural gas flowing through the pipelines. So Russia has built (and is building) alternate pipelines that bypass Ukraine, going through the Black Sea, the North Sea, and Belarus.

In 2012, large natural gas deposits were discovered in the Black Sea in Ukrainian waters. Ukraine also has energy resources both in Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine. Unfortunately, they don't have the technology to extract the natural gas. So they contracted with western companies like Shell. Ukraine selling its own natural gas could undermine the market for Russia.

Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, annexing it for their own benefit. The vast majority of the newly-discovered natural gas in the Black Sea was now under Russian control. Also, they seized a bunch of extraction equipment in the process. The uncertainty and threat of further Russian invasion spooked the western energy companies, who got out of their contracts and out of Ukraine.

Crimea has a pretty dry climate with very little fresh water. Ukraine had a canal that provided most of the water to the peninsula. After Russia took Crimea, Ukraine filled in the canal with concrete. Crimea's main reservoir is now at 7% capacity.

Russia's intent now may be to take over the remaining natural gas resources, to re-open the canal for Crimea, and/or other stuff.

I wouldn't be surprised if Putin sees himself as restoring the Russian or Soviet Empire, but I think his calculus for invading Ukraine is more about controlling the natural resources.

Did someone say there are oil reserves in Ukraine? Now that may be worth fighting WWIII for... or at least going in to look for those WMDs!

[Green Monstah]

The only issue with the gas reserves theory is that Russia is alienating its market in order to get gas to market. Now, these sanctions often are eased over time, but it certainly makes the war more risky.