2024 Presidential Election Thread

[falafel]

LOL... the Dems with TDS are all cultist.

What's the value in proving the Dude's point right there? lol.

[myboynoah]

Good hell, these people can't even do the simplest of advance work, and they want to run the country.

Can they make JD look any dorkier?

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[myboynoah]

This is pretty good.

We have a similar problem! We had a contract employee that we hired 7.5 years ago. We had to let him go after his contract expired and we didn’t renew it due to bad job performance. Turned out he lied about an impending crisis that cost the lives of a few hundred thousand of our employees. Prior to that, he had two major reprimands because he was caught trying to bribe one of our foreign partners. When he found out that his contract wouldn’t be extended he called all his buddies and they raided our home office and tried to have the Vice President of Operations, the HR Manager, and a few of his previous colleagues murdered.

He’s been taken to court for most of these offenses and many of these cases are pending trial. He’s put on bail and has applied to get his old job back. We also found out that at a company-sponsored golf outing, he had sex with one of the guests and paid her from the company’s funds to keep quiet. His wife was there with their new baby. Awkward.

He wants to come back to work this November.

During the interview for his old job, he promised to fire the entire staff on day one and hire loyalists and initiate a corporate takeover. He seems to have no interest in working with staff, because with the loyalists under his leadership and those installed on the Board of Directors he will be able to do pretty much anything he wants.

He also promised to fire all the Latinos and hire Black people for Black jobs such as cooking, cleaning toilets and sweeping and mopping the floors.

What do you think? Should we take our chances and hire him back?

Asking for the entire United States of America!

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[chrisrenrut]

This is pretty good.

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I really hope Mike Schultz Read that and felt the ownership of his soul pass directly to Darlene.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Hmm....

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[Northwestcoug]

Hey I appreciate the gratuitous backsides, but man this is weird:

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[wally]

Hmm....

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Man, am I crazy if I don't believe any of the polls? This is too divisive an election to think that everyone is honest with pollsters on the phone. I have this feeling that the quiet trump supporters are going to be a more significant influence than we think. I think that there are going to be a lot of people who want Trump in there but don't want others to know that they want him in there. This is where the absolutely horrible divisive rhetoric all over the place has gotten us. We can't have honest discourse without being fearful that we lose friends or family. It just isn't even worth it to some folks to engage on politics at all. It is like a marriage where one partner always dominates. That partner is super happy right up until the divorce paperwork gets filed and then..... whoops! How could I they have seen it coming?! I also think that there are going to be quiet Kamala supporters too, but I am less sure about my opinion on that dynamic in swing states.

Regardless this is going to be a super entertaining election for us, because we are going to be able to watch an absolute meltdown on either side when the votes are in whichever way it goes.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Man, am I crazy if I don't believe any of the polls? This is too divisive an election to think that everyone is honest with pollsters on the phone. I have this feeling that the quiet trump supporters are going to be a more significant influence than we think. I think that there are going to be a lot of people who want Trump in there but don't want others to know that they want him in there. This is where the absolutely horrible divisive rhetoric all over the place has gotten us. We can't have honest discourse without being fearful that we lose friends or family. It just isn't even worth it to some folks to engage on politics at all. It is like a marriage where one partner always dominates. That partner is super happy right up until the divorce paperwork gets filed and then..... whoops! How could I they have seen it coming?! I also think that there are going to be quiet Kamala supporters too, but I am less sure about my opinion on that dynamic in swing states.

Regardless this is going to be a super entertaining election for us, because we are going to be able to watch an absolute meltdown on either side when the votes are in whichever way it goes.

Yes, of course one poll is pretty much meaningless. But this is a poll that always seems to be strongly biased in Trump’s favor. Thought it was interesting.

I agree that there are probably a lot of closet Trump voters. I wonder if there are any people in super red areas that are quietly getting tired of Trump’s drama and might secretly vote the other way. I kind of doubt it, but it’s interesting to contemplate.

[myboynoah]

Yes, of course one poll is pretty much meaningless. But this is a poll that always seems to be strongly biased in Trump’s favor. Thought it was interesting.

I agree that there are probably a lot of closet Trump voters. I wonder if there are any people in super red areas that are quietly getting tired of Trump’s drama and might secretly vote the other way. I kind of doubt it, but it’s interesting to contemplate.

I'm not a pollster, but after two elections where the MAGA vote appears to have been under polled, I would think current pollsters would tweak their algorithms this time around to account for that and add a few percentage points in Trump's favor.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I'm not a pollster, but after two elections where the MAGA vote appears to have been under polled, I would think current pollsters would tweak their algorithms this time around to account for that and add a few percentage points in Trump's favor.

What about in 2022 when everyone was predicting a MAGA landslide that didn’t happen?

[Pelado]

Hey I appreciate the gratuitous backsides, but man this is weird:

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Yes, that is weird.

[myboynoah]

What about in 2022 when everyone was predicting a MAGA landslide that didn’t happen?

Maybe having Trump on the ballot makes a difference?

[Clark Addison]

Nate Silver has a quite long response to the question of "Will polls be biased against Trump again?" here:

SBSQ #12: Will the polls lowball Trump again? (natesilver.net) (starts about halfway down)

You can read some, but not all of it if you don't subscribe. He addresses several factors, but on the specific question of the "Shy Trump Voter" theory, he says:

While I've never really bought the "shy Trump voter" theory - the problem with polls in 2016 and 2020 was more that Trump voters weren't getting captured by polls in the first place and not that they were concealing their support when pollsters did reach them - it's worth mentioning that declaring one's support for Trump has become more socially acceptable among certain subgroups, like Silicon Valley or crypto types or younger voters of color. And with MAGA hats and yard signs, Trump fans are often quite demonstrative in support of their candidate...

To a strong first approximation, I think polls being unbiased is the right assumption - they could miss, and if they do miss, the miss will probably be systematic, affecting many states. But they're about equally likely to miss in either direction

Of course, you can make an argument that Silver's bias would be toward polls and models not being biased. Nevertheless, he makes a few interesting points.

[fusnik]

We have something brewing in Nevada that could have a huge impact on the election.

My neighbor is very involved in local/state/federal politics for the GOP has fireside’s almost weekly with candidates and electeds and because of him I’ve met almost every GOP candidate over the last 10 years. I was chatting with him a couple days ago and he said they are very optimistic about the upcoming election, in large part because they were able to purge 100k targeted voters in Clark. He claimed they have been working with the Secretary of State and governors office to get rid of a lot of suspect voting records in Clark.

I hadn’t heard anything about this so I went home and checked my voting registration. We have lived in the same place, I vote in all elections, no recent changes to licenses, haven’t received any notice in the mail and when I checked my voting registration it shows online as if Ive never registered to vote.

I called the election services department and was told by a rep there that they have no record of me ever voting in the state. I called the secretary of states office and after multiple phone calls emails, I was finally able to chat with someone who told me that they purged thousands of voters who have not voted in 2 major elections consecutively and didn’t respond to a mailer. I assured the person that was not the case and was told there is no record of you voting in any general election.

I re registered to vote via paper application, drove 40 mins to the office responsible for registration, verified with the folks there that I filled out the proper paperwork, triple checked everything and left the office confident that I was good. This week I checked online, as they told me to wait 5 days, and the site says there’s no record of my registration. Another round of calls and apparently the current explanation is that the computer system changed a letter in my name when it corresponded with the DMVs computer system and had rejected my registration.

So now the proposal is I have to go to the DMV to change a misspelling of my name that doesn’t exist to register to vote. I have a meeting with the SOS office tomorrow via the phone call hoping to resolve the issue without a visit to the DMV.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...ts-voter-rolls

[YOhio]

We have something brewing in Nevada that could have a huge impact on the election.

My neighbor is very involved in local/state/federal politics for the GOP has fireside’s almost weekly with candidates and electeds and because of him I’ve met almost every GOP candidate over the last 10 years. I was chatting with him a couple days ago and he said they are very optimistic about the upcoming election, in large part because they were able to purge 100k targeted voters in Clark. He claimed they have been working with the Secretary of State and governors office to get rid of a lot of suspect voting records in Clark.

I hadn’t heard anything about this so I went home and checked my voting registration. We have lived in the same place, I vote in all elections, no recent changes to licenses, haven’t received any notice in the mail and when I checked my voting registration it shows online as if Ive never registered to vote.

I called the election services department and was told by a rep there that they have no record of me ever voting in the state. I called the secretary of states office and after multiple phone calls emails, I was finally able to chat with someone who told me that they purged thousands of voters who have not voted in 2 major elections consecutively and didn’t respond to a mailer. I assured the person that was not the case and was told there is no record of you voting in any general election.

I re registered to vote via paper application, drove 40 mins to the office responsible for registration, verified with the folks there that I filled out the proper paperwork, triple checked everything and left the office confident that I was good. This week I checked online, as they told me to wait 5 days, and the site says there’s no record of my registration. Another round of calls and apparently the current explanation is that the computer system changed a letter in my name when it corresponded with the DMVs computer system and had rejected my registration.

So now the proposal is I have to go to the DMV to change a misspelling of my name that doesn’t exist to register to vote. I have a meeting with the SOS office tomorrow via the phone call hoping to resolve the issue without a visit to the DMV.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...ts-voter-rolls

Yikes! First off, what a pain in the ass. Sorry you had to deal with this. Second, what an awful approach. In many states the voter rolls are a mess. But this clearly isn't the correct approach.