2024 Presidential Election Thread

[Jeff Lebowski]

You guys in Utah who have resigned from the party as a form of protest are not helping anything.

[YOhio]

You guys in Utah who have resigned from the party as a form of protest are not helping anything.

[Jeff Lebowski]

[YOhio]

The 13 Keys

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Trump
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Biden
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Biden
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Trump
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Biden
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. 2013-2020 1.4% | 2021-2024 (through Q1) 1.8% Biden
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Trump
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Trump
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Biden

Here is a back of the napkin quick analysis attempting to get all of the objective keys resolved. I think that Kennedy counts as a significant 3rd party based on some reporting I have seen of him polling as high as 16% when included. The house was at 235D in 2019 and 212 in 2023. I did not engage in the subjectivity of 7-10, but scored 11 -13 I based on the report of how Lichtman scored the 2020 election in October of that year.

I invite any input on 7-10, or correction on any of the 4 that are going Trump's way already. I don't think, based on the objectively quantifiable aspects of the keys that his statement that "A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose" matches up with his stated scoring methodology from 4 years ago. I am still hoping for a convention upheavel for both parties, but will likely not be voting this go round anyhow since I am in Utah and nowhere near any contested race since I resigned from the Republican party and cannot vote in the primary.

I had a score of Biden 8, Trump 5 a while back.

https://www.cougarstadium.com/forum/...49#post2310049

I think we differed on 3rd party and the charisma questions, though I'm not super confident in my answers on those.

I think the biggest threat to Biden right now is social unrest. That can throw things into chaos really quickly and have an impact on the economy and foreign policy. Particularly if it's seen as a result of foreign policy actions, as is the case with the Palestine protests, or the unrest is seen as a result of foreign actor influence.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I think the biggest threat to Biden right now is social unrest. That can throw things into chaos really quickly and have an impact on the economy and foreign policy. Particularly if it's seen as a result of foreign policy actions, as is the case with the Palestine protests, or the unrest is seen as a result of foreign actor influence.

Yeah, the Israel-Palestine thing could be a game-changer. Everyone is drawing parallels to 1968 and the chaos at the democratic convention. Could be a disaster for Biden. One thing about the democrats is you can always count on them to shoot themselves in the foot.

[frank ryan]

Yeah, the Israel-Palestine thing could be a game-changer. Everyone is drawing parallels to 1968 and the chaos at the democratic convention. Could be a disaster for Biden. One thing about the democrats is you can always count on them to shoot themselves in the foot.

You are so right.

[Copelius]

I had a score of Biden 8, Trump 5 a while back.

https://www.cougarstadium.com/forum/...49#post2310049

I think we differed on 3rd party and the charisma questions, though I'm not super confident in my answers on those.

I think the biggest threat to Biden right now is social unrest. That can throw things into chaos really quickly and have an impact on the economy and foreign policy. Particularly if it's seen as a result of foreign policy actions, as is the case with the Palestine protests, or the unrest is seen as a result of foreign actor influence.

The reason I didn't give any credit to Trump for charisma is based on the reason Lichtman didn't give Trump any credit for charisma in 2020, that he only appeals to a narrow base. I suspect 1/2 of either the voters for Trump or Biden will be holding theirs respective noses. I tend, like you, to lean toward trump on 10, but it is so subjective that one has to define a major failure prior to awarding the Biden team a failure in any location. It seems to me that the border is the closest to an objective major failure as there is. That would bump Trump to 5, and if the protests continue for another month or so, I would put 8 solidly Trump, which would be his needed 6. Lord help us.

If I were a democratic strategist, I would convince Biden to resign just before the convention, throwing it into a free for all, but have his last act be to pardon Trump. It seems that much of the wind in Trump's sails are from the "lawfare" as it is being labeled by the right. What would the talking points be if he were no longer able to talk about the "election interference." While Kamala would take over in the short term, there is no way she makes it out of convention, and a couple of well placed phone calls to certain moderate candidates would allow them to get a head start on getting through the convention. The right candidate could re-energize the democrats who may have soured on Biden as well as poach republicans, who may or may not have resigned from the party but under no circumstance would every vote for Trump. I don't see a way to get to 6 of Lichtman's keys, but the unprecedented nature of the election would throw all predictive models through the window anyhow.

[beefytee]

The reason I didn't give any credit to Trump for charisma is based on the reason Lichtman didn't give Trump any credit for charisma in 2020, that he only appeals to a narrow base. I suspect 1/2 of either the voters for Trump or Biden will be holding theirs respective noses. I tend, like you, to lean toward trump on 10, but it is so subjective that one has to define a major failure prior to awarding the Biden team a failure in any location. It seems to me that the border is the closest to an objective major failure as there is. That would bump Trump to 5, and if the protests continue for another month or so, I would put 8 solidly Trump, which would be his needed 6. Lord help us.

If I were a democratic strategist, I would convince Biden to resign just before the convention, throwing it into a free for all, but have his last act be to pardon Trump. It seems that much of the wind in Trump's sails are from the "lawfare" as it is being labeled by the right. What would the talking points be if he were no longer able to talk about the "election interference." While Kamala would take over in the short term, there is no way she makes it out of convention, and a couple of well placed phone calls to certain moderate candidates would allow them to get a head start on getting through the convention. The right candidate could re-energize the democrats who may have soured on Biden as well as poach republicans, who may or may not have resigned from the party but under no circumstance would every vote for Trump. I don't see a way to get to 6 of Lichtman's keys, but the unprecedented nature of the election would throw all predictive models through the window anyhow.

I know there are a lot of Americans who want to see him locked up. I just want to see him as far away from the Whitehouse as possible. So, whatever helps with that, I am for.
This approach would be a huge gamble though. Trump would spin it as being exonerated and a defeat of Biden who has been coming after him with all these lawsuits (that's his claim anyways).

I think Biden just stepping down for a competent moderate candidate just before the convention would suffice.

[USUC]

Yeah, the Israel-Palestine thing could be a game-changer. Everyone is drawing parallels to 1968 and the chaos at the democratic convention. Could be a disaster for Biden. One thing about the democrats is you can always count on them to shoot themselves in the foot.

Biden's administration is staffed by unserious people with unrealistic expectations of how society should be. The lack of realists is a big problem for him. I think he has momentum right now and barring any craziness, he should win. But is anyone confident that there won't be craziness? A lot of these college protests are despicable but I think moat view it as elite people causing problems for elite institutions and it doesn't really impact most people. But if there is chaos at the Chicago convention and it gives the appearance that the Biden admin has lost control, it could be devastating for him. Or if the fed lowers interest rates in September even with inflation still being a problem (as I've heard some say should be the strategy), it hurts him.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Biden's administration is staffed by unserious people with unrealistic expectations of how society should be. The lack of realists is a big problem for him. I think he has momentum right now and barring any craziness, he should win. But is anyone confident that there won't be craziness? A lot of these college protests are despicable but I think moat view it as elite people causing problems for elite institutions and it doesn't really impact most people. But if there is chaos at the Chicago convention and it gives the appearance that the Biden admin has lost control, it could be devastating for him. Or if the fed lowers interest rates in September even with inflation still being a problem (as I've heard some say should be the strategy), it hurts him.

Not sure I am following you. Are you saying they would lower interest rates to give him a bump when the indicators are net there yet? I have a tough time believing they would do that.

[Maximus]

I had a score of Biden 8, Trump 5 a while back.

https://www.cougarstadium.com/forum/...49#post2310049

I think we differed on 3rd party and the charisma questions, though I'm not super confident in my answers on those.

I think the biggest threat to Biden right now is social unrest. That can throw things into chaos really quickly and have an impact on the economy and foreign policy. Particularly if it's seen as a result of foreign policy actions, as is the case with the Palestine protests, or the unrest is seen as a result of foreign actor influence.

If it goes to then it will be but I think the war will be over within 2 weeks and israel won't restart it .

[USUC]

Not sure I am following you. Are you saying they would lower interest rates to give him a bump when the indicators are net there yet? I have a tough time believing they would do that.

Yes, essentially they would lower interest rates before the election for political reasons only to help ensure victory. It does seem too nakedly cynical and I have no reason to beleive it, but I have seen some progressive commentators suggest they should.

[USUC]

If it goes to then it will be but I think the war will be over within 2 weeks and israel won't restart it .

This is a good point. If Isreal goes in to Rafah and completes it's objectives and pulls out, does the current protest movement have enough energy to carry on as it is now. It may be a non issue by November (or by the DNC).

[Moliere]

I’m surprised Trump has yet to try to tie the protesters as the very people Bidens student loan forgiveness plan would help. It doesn’t matter if it’s true or not (to Trump anyway).

[Uncle Ted]

Yeah, the Israel-Palestine thing could be a game-changer. Everyone is drawing parallels to 1968 and the chaos at the democratic convention. Could be a disaster for Biden. One thing about the democrats is you can always count on them to shoot themselves in the foot.

Yeah, if the GOP'ers had any brains they would bus in these Pro-Hamas students to protest at the democratic convention... that would make the convention worth watching.