2024 Presidential Election Thread

[All-American]

do you believe biden is prosecuting trump?

I don't believe Biden knows whether he is prosecuting Trump anyway.

[frank ryan]

I assume the Court will hold that there is something resembling presidential immunity for official actions, even if they stop short of determining that Trump's actions qualify as official actions.

That wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world. When you look back at Roman history, a major factor in what caused Caesar to march on Rome was the likelihood that he would be prosecuted for improper conduct while exercising proconsular imperium once that imperium expired. If a President can prosecute his predecessor, that just raises the stakes, and make it even more probable that the predecessor will refuse to relinquish power or allow the transition.

On the other hand, presidential immunity would insulate the President and encourage bad behavior, knowing that he is immune from prosecution. The primary remedy to that concern would seemingly be impeachment and removal from office, though that is an imperfect fix too.

Ideally, we just wouldn't elect boneheads that flagrantly flout the law. But here we are.

Presidential immunity, at least what Trump's legal team is seeking, would almost give him a king-like status. This is not good and Trump is not our typical corrupt politician. He active pushes back against rules and norms.

It should alarm people.

[frank ryan]

I don't believe Biden knows whether he is prosecuting Trump anyway.

What do you believe?

[Maximus]

I don't believe Biden knows whether he is prosecuting Trump anyway.

come on man. claiming this is a political prosecution and then hiding behind biden isnt there! lol

Why didnt you answer the question?

you going to say the same about trump? when has trump appeared to be more cognitavely capable?

[frank ryan]

Seems like an awful lot of handwringing over a ruling that doesn’t exist yet.

I think Trump's strategy is to slow down his court cases with the hope that he can assume power as POTUS.

I don't have confidence that the court is going to take that into consideration. This issue seems like one that shouldn't have to slowplayed.

[frank ryan]

come on man. claiming this is a political prosecution and then hiding behind biden isnt there! lol

Why didnt you answer the question?

you going to say the same about trump? when has trump appeared to be more cognitavely capable?

Trump seems to get a pass on so many of his behaviors with people just writing off the concerns as just dumb Trump being dumb Trump. It almost renders him immune from scandal in some circles.

[All-American]

come on man. claiming this is a political prosecution and then hiding behind biden isnt there! lol

Why didnt you answer the question?

you going to say the same about trump? when has trump appeared to be more cognitavely capable?

Ok then. Factually speaking, this is a federal action, not a state action, which means Biden would ultimately have the ability to put an end to the prosecution. Yes, special counsel was appointed, which creates some distance, but Biden could still exercise pardon power.

Truth be told, though, and even without downplaying the significance of how this decision affects the present landscape, I'm not nearly as interested in the dynamics of how this plays out vis a vis Trump and Biden than what happens after Trump and Biden.

[YOhio]

Has this ever been discussed before? Lichtman Key Indicators were invented in the early 80's and it's correctly predicted every election since 1984, with the exception of Bush v. Gore. As some of the indicators are subjective, maybe when the election gets closer we can use it to make some predictions. Really interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ke...he_White_House

A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’

In 2020 Lichtman gave a presentation to the American Political Science Association about the keys as one of three classic models of prediction. In recent months he has delivered keynote addresses at Asian and Brazilian financial conferences, the Oxford Union and JP Morgan. As another election looms, he is not impressed by polls that show Trump leading Biden, prompting a fatalistic mood to take hold in Washington DC and foreign capitals.

“They’re mesmerised by the wrong things, which is the polls. First of all, polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value. They would have predicted President Michael Dukakis. They would have predicted President Jimmy Carter would have defeated Ronald Reagan, who won in a landslide; Carter was way ahead in some of the early polls.

“Not only are polls a snapshot but they are not predictors. They don’t predict anything and there’s no such thing as, ‘if the election were held today’. That’s a meaningless statement.”

He is likely to make his pronouncement on the 2024 presidential election in early August. He notes that Biden already has the incumbency key in his favour and, having crushed token challengers in the Democratic primary, has the contest key too. “That’s two keys off the top. That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”

[Jeff Lebowski]

A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’

Thank you. I needed that.

[Jeff Lebowski]

I don't believe Biden knows whether he is prosecuting Trump anyway.

For the record, I laughed. Well done.

[YOhio]

Thank you. I needed that.

I'm not saying that a lot won't go wrong.

[Bo Diddley]

A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’

That's encouraging.

They would have predicted President Jimmy Carter would have defeated Ronald Reagan, who won in a landslide; Carter was way ahead in some of the early polls.

I reported on this very thing in the Morrill Middle School newspaper in 7th grade.

[Bo Diddley]

I read something over the weekend that talked about Kennedy in the race posing more trouble for Trump in Michigan.

Conventional wisdom, backed up by some opinion polls, says that Mr Kennedy, a member of the country's most famous - and Democratic - political family, presents more of a threat to Joe Biden than to the Republican nominee Donald Trump.

However, other recent surveys, interviews with supporters and a closer look at the issues that animate Mr Kennedy's base tell a different story - that perhaps Mr Trump is the candidate who should be more worried.

"Given the status of politics in Michigan right now, I would say he's probably more damaging to Trump," said Corwin Smidt, a politics professor at Michigan State University. "But it's a very uncertain situation."

[Northwestcoug]

I'm not saying that a lot won't go wrong.

sheesh. First you bolster the collective CS mood then shoot it down. Not cool.

[Copelius]

The 13 Keys

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Trump
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Biden
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Biden
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Trump
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Biden
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. 2013-2020 1.4% | 2021-2024 (through Q1) 1.8% Biden
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Trump
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Trump
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Biden

Here is a back of the napkin quick analysis attempting to get all of the objective keys resolved. I think that Kennedy counts as a significant 3rd party based on some reporting I have seen of him polling as high as 16% when included. The house was at 235D in 2019 and 212 in 2023. I did not engage in the subjectivity of 7-10, but scored 11 -13 I based on the report of how Lichtman scored the 2020 election in October of that year.

I invite any input on 7-10, or correction on any of the 4 that are going Trump's way already. I don't think, based on the objectively quantifiable aspects of the keys that his statement that "A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose" matches up with his stated scoring methodology from 4 years ago. I am still hoping for a convention upheavel for both parties, but will likely not be voting this go round anyhow since I am in Utah and nowhere near any contested race since I resigned from the Republican party and cannot vote in the primary.