2024 Presidential Election Thread

[BigPiney]

Has this ever been discussed before? Lichtman Key Indicators were invented in the early 80's and it's correctly predicted every election since 1984, with the exception of Bush v. Gore. As some of the indicators are subjective, maybe when the election gets closer we can use it to make some predictions. Really interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ke...he_White_House

I think I have seen that before. Where does that lead us in 2024?

[Bo Diddley]

Has this ever been discussed before? Lichtman Key Indicators were invented in the early 80's and it's correctly predicted every election since 1984, with the exception of Bush v. Gore. As some of the indicators are subjective, maybe when the election gets closer we can use it to make some predictions. Really interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ke...he_White_House

Ha. What were the chances a Russian would be at the center of this?

Looking through the key indicators, this could be close. Biden might be in some trouble.

[YOhio]

I think I have seen that before. Where does that lead us in 2024?

I asked Bard, ChatGPT and Grok. ChatGPT and Bard were useless. Grok said:

"According to Lichtman's Keys to the White House, the current prediction for the 2024 US Presidential election is that the incumbent party (Democrats) will win. This prediction is based on the current state of the 13 keys, with 5 of them being false, which favors the incumbent party.
However, it is important to note that the prediction is subject to change as the situation evolves. Factors such as the economy, major policy changes, social unrest, and the charisma of the candidates can still impact the outcome of the election."

I did a quick tally and came up with this:

Key	Advantage	Potential Factors
Party Mandate: After midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.	Trump	None
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.	Biden	None
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.	Biden	First time a former president faces an incumbent
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.	Biden	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets traction
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.	Biden	Economy strong, but pain of inflation still significant
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.	Biden	Barring catastrophe, unlikely to change
Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.	Biden	Biden enacted major changes, but many unpopular
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.	Biden	No significant social unrest, but two volatile areas could escalate. 1- Border 2- Urban Violence/Lawlessness
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.	Biden	So far scandals have received partisan attention, but have potential of escalating. 1- Hunter Biden 2- AG report on Biden mishandling classified information
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.	Trump	1- Afghanistan 2- Ukraine 3- Israel 4- Border
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.	Trump	1- Ukraine/Russia Ends 2- Israel/Palestine Resolution
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.	Trump	Dementia gets unmanageble
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.	Trump	Trump gets convicted
	5- Trump
	8- Biden

[Bo Diddley]

I asked Bard, ChatGPT and Grok. ChatGPT and Bard were useless. Grok said:


I did a quick tally and came up with this:

That sounds about right. Social unrest seems to me to be the biggest threat to Biden wrt to an indicator flipping to Trump. Maybe 3rd party, but it doesn't feel like it right now--or else, and just as likely, I'm just out of touch.

[Paperback Writer]

I asked Bard, ChatGPT and Grok. ChatGPT and Bard were useless. Grok said:


I did a quick tally and came up with this:

Key	Advantage	Potential Factors
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.	Trump	Trump gets convicted
	5- Trump
	8- Biden

You might want to revist Key 13 because Lichtman specifically mentions that Trump does not pass the Uncharismatic Challenger test. In other words, Trump is NOT charismatic nor a national hero. From the Wicki: "By contrast, Lichtman said that Donald Trump had an intense appeal with only a narrow slice of the electorate."^[

[YOhio]

You might want to revist Key 13 because Lichtman specifically mentions that Trump does not pass the Uncharismatic Challenger test. In other words, Trump is NOT charismatic nor a national hero. From the Wicki: "By contrast, Lichtman said that Donald Trump had an intense appeal with only a narrow slice of the electorate."^[

Yeah disagree with Lichtman on that one. I see his point, but I think he's downplaying Trump. I can't stand the guy, but no doubt he has charisma. He's a real estate developer who became a globally known celebrity and television star. That's happens only with Trump's rare talent stack of shamelessness, dishonesty, ego, and charisma.

[fusnik]

That sounds about right. Social unrest seems to me to be the biggest threat to Biden wrt to an indicator flipping to Trump. Maybe 3rd party, but it doesn't feel like it right now--or else, and just as likely, I'm just out of touch.

No Labels is a scam and they are in shambles but Nikki raised a ton of money in January and has started this grumpy old men schtick. I could see her banding with Larry Hogan/Joe Manchin to make a third party center right run.

[Bo Diddley]

You might want to revist Key 13 because Lichtman specifically mentions that Trump does not pass the Uncharismatic Challenger test. In other words, Trump is NOT charismatic nor a national hero. From the Wicki: "By contrast, Lichtman said that Donald Trump had an intense appeal with only a narrow slice of the electorate."^[

Yeah, Trump's a wildcard. How much does he draw people from his base as opposed to draw those who hate him to vote against him?

[Paperback Writer]

Yeah, Trump's a wildcard. How much does he draw people from his base as opposed to draw those who hate him to vote against him?

I think YOhio gave a well reasoned response. That key is also subjective since charisma can mean different things to different people. Take Barack Obama in 2008 for instance. For me personally, Obama had charisma along with being well spoken. I liked his backstory and bought into his "hope and change" message despite warnings that an Obama presidency would veer more left than what he was campaigning on. But Trump is a wild card. I think the Trump persona draws more ire from his critics and independents than cheers from his base. Perhaps YOhio is downplaying people who will vote against Trump vs voting for Biden.

[BigPiney]

Thanks, I hope it is correct.

[Northwestcoug]

I so love the current political climate where a presidential candidate works against members of his own party and sabotages legislature in concert with his favorite TV commentators:

Embedded Tweet

[YOhio]

Special counsel report on Biden's mishandling of classified material came out today. They didn't recommend charging, but it was still pretty brutal.

In addition. Mr. Biden's memory was significantly limited, both during his recorded interviews with the ghostwriter in 2017, and in his interview with our office in 2023. And his cooperation with our investigation, including by reporting to the government that the Afghanistan documents were in his Delaware garage, will likely convince some jurors that he made an innocent mistake, rather than acting willfully-that is, with intent to break the law-as the statute requires.

...

We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory. Based on our direct interactions with and observations of him, he is someone for whom many jurors will want to identify reasonable doubt. It would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him-by then a former president well into his eighties-of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness.
...

In his interview with our office, Mr. Biden's memory was worse. He did not remember when he was vice president, forgetting on the first day of the interview when his term ended ("if it was 2013 - when did I stop being Vice President?"), and forgetting on the second day of the interview when his term began ("in 2009, am I still Vice President?").He did not remember, even within several years, when his son Beau died. And his memory appeared hazy when describing the Afghanistan debate that was once so important to him. Among other things, he mistakenly said he "had a real difference" of opinion with General Karl Eikenberry, when, in fact, Eikenberry was an ally whom Mr. Eiden cited approvingly in his Thanksgiving memo to President Obama.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Special counsel report on Biden's mishandling of classified material came out today. They didn't recommend charging, but it was still pretty brutal.

Oh boy.

But NOT DEMENTIA!, right?

[beefytee]

Being charged and convicted would have been less politically damaging than that snippet you share there.

[BigPiney]

ouch pretty damning.