2024 Presidential Election Thread

[tooblue]

I think you need to check your math. The base for trump is much closer to 35-40% of the Republican voters, not 15-20% that you said.

I don't think there are enough religious voters who don't like trump to give pence a path. He might do ok in Iowa, but he'll drop like a rock in NH.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...believer-base/

You could be right but I think 35 - 40% is too high. There is too much in flux. Even if it is say 33%, his current lead is vulnerable to a challenger coming at him with 30+% around which the party coalesces. I admit I am swinging for the fences with my prediction. But his campaign reminds me a little bit of Biden's journey in 2020. At some point a majority (possibly a slim majority) of republicans will come to the conclusion that regardless their love of Trump, he is not electable in the general election.

[falafel]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...believer-base/

You could be right but I think 35 - 40% is too high. There is too much in flux. Even if it is say 33%, his current lead is vulnerable to a challenger coming at him with 30+% around which the party coalesces. I admit I am swinging for the fences with my prediction. But his campaign reminds me a little bit of Biden's journey in 2020. At some point a majority of republicans will come to the conclusion that regardless their love of Trump, he is not electable in the general election.

Strongly disagree with this prediction. What in the last 4 years, and especially the last year, has lead you to believe that they are trending in this direction?

[Jeff Lebowski]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...believer-base/

You could be right but I think 35 - 40% is too high. There is too much in flux. Even if it is say 33%, his current lead is vulnerable to a challenger coming at him with 30+% around which the party coalesces. I admit I am swinging for the fences with my prediction. But his campaign reminds me a little bit of Biden's journey in 2020. At some point a majority (possibly a slim majority) of republicans will come to the conclusion that regardless their love of Trump, he is not electable in the general election.

It is like you are posting from a parallel universe or something.

[falafel]

It is like you are posting from a parallel universe or something.

Or a parallel country.

[Applejack]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...believer-base/

You could be right but I think 35 - 40% is too high. There is too much in flux. Even if it is say 33%, his current lead is vulnerable to a challenger coming at him with 30+% around which the party coalesces. I admit I am swinging for the fences with my prediction. But his campaign reminds me a little bit of Biden's journey in 2020. At some point a majority (possibly a slim majority) of republicans will come to the conclusion that regardless their love of Trump, he is not electable in the general election.

I appreciate your comment's innate, Canadian optimism but I don't think a single sentence in your post is realistic.

1. I'm not saying his lead is 35-40%, I'm saying his base is 35-40% of republicans. That is a huge difference! If he's got 35% locked down, all he needs is to peel 15% of the rest. No amount of asa voters(?) will turn the tide for pence.
2. what about Biden's journey reminds you of pence's? Yes they were both VPs, but Biden was the clear front runner the entire time he was running. Even with dementia! Biden was not running against the guy he worked for, and never foiled the cleverest coup attempt to ever take place. I don't remember chants of "hang joe Biden" from the democratic voters either.
3. There is literally nothing that will diminish trumps standing with the gop voter. He truly is the "dear leader" (rip Il padrino Ute). If you think a little indictment in a blue state like Georgia is enough to derail his campaign, I have some steaks and universities to sell you.
4. And lastly, don't think for a minute that trump can't win the general. Because of the inspired electoral college, all the votes in California, Utah, Texas, florida, New York, dc, massachusetts, etc, etc, etc don't matter. Our president will be chosen by Michigan, arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. And I know from personal experience that there are a lot of rational, temperate people that nonetheless will vote for a jailed trump over THE BIDEN CRIME FAMILY. lord help us if he wins.

[frank ryan]

The more I think about him, the more I think he is a classic narcissist. Even at Harvard, a place that is filled with some of the smartest people in the world, he felt like he was the smartest guy in the room.

I started watching chunks of the debate. Haley made him look like a twit concerning foreign policy. He came across to me like a more articulate Gary Johnson.

I think she is on to something on coupling enabling or actively supporting Russia with supporting China. Because it is true.

[tooblue]

I appreciate your comment's innate, Canadian optimism but I don't think a single sentence in your post is realistic.

1. I'm not saying his lead is 35-40%, I'm saying his base is 35-40% of republicans. That is a huge difference! If he's got 35% locked down, all he needs is to peel 15% of the rest. No amount of asa voters(?) will turn the tide for pence.
2. what about Biden's journey reminds you of pence's? Yes they were both VPs, but Biden was the clear front runner the entire time he was running. Even with dementia! Biden was not running against the guy he worked for, and never foiled the cleverest coup attempt to ever take place. I don't remember chants of "hang joe Biden" from the democratic voters either.
3. There is literally nothing that will diminish trumps standing with the gop voter. He truly is the "dear leader" (rip Il padrino Ute). If you think a little indictment in a blue state like Georgia is enough to derail his campaign, I have some steaks and universities to sell you.
4. And lastly, don't think for a minute that trump can't win the general. Because of the inspired electoral college, all the votes in California, Utah, Texas, florida, New York, dc, massachusetts, etc, etc, etc don't matter. Our president will be chosen by Michigan, arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. And I know from personal experience that there are a lot of rational, temperate people that nonetheless will vote for a jailed trump over THE BIDEN CRIME FAMILY. lord help us if he wins.

I understand you are talking about his base. I am also. Again, I think 35 - 40% is too high. I am sticking by my prediction. Pence reminds me of Biden based on his performance at the debate and the fact he is someone you neither love or hate. That was literally Biden. It is not optimism so much as pragmatism. I have the advantage of watching and reading a variety news sources. US media over all is insanely polarized. What is reported doesn't represent reality. It is such an oddity to watch a news source that just reports the news and then in contrast to FOX or MSNBC.

[beefytee]

1. I'm not saying his lead is 35-40%, I'm saying his base is 35-40% of republicans. That is a huge difference! If he's got 35% locked down, all he needs is to peel 15% of the rest. No amount of asa voters(?) will turn the tide for pence.

With 3+ candidates in the field and lots of winner take all states, you don't even need 50%. 35-40% will get you there.

Trump ended up with 45% of the primary/caucus vote in 2016 (Republican Convention 2016 (thegreenpapers.com)), but he also got a bump in the latter states once the contest was decided. He didn't get below 60% after the Indiana primary on May 3. He won New Hampshire with 35% of the vote in the initial primary. 2016 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions Chronologically (thegreenpapers.com)

If he has 35% before any caucus or primary starts and it is solid. He isn't going to get beat. (Which is your point. )

[Pelado]

Even if Trump's base is only 25-30% of the Republican electorate, he will still be very difficult to beat when there are 8 other candidates splitting the other 70-75%. Haley made some good points in the debate about the country not wanting another Trump-Biden election, that Trump is the most unpopular politician in the country, and that he is not electable in the general election. I just don't know that those messages are going to make enough difference to enough primary voters.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Even if Trump's base is only 25-30% of the Republican electorate, he will still be very difficult to beat when there are 8 other candidates splitting the other 70-75%. Haley made some good points in the debate about the country not wanting another Trump-Biden election, that Trump is the most unpopular politician in the country, and that he is not electable in the general election. I just don't know that those messages are going to make enough difference to enough primary voters.

Trump's hardcore base is 35-40% as confirmed by countless surveys.

[USUC]

I've tried to take a break from following politics this summer as I'm exasperated by the leading candidates for each party. I watched the debate and I think I'll check back out. My only thoughts are that the GOP is held hostage by a death cult. Winning elections doesn't matter, it's all about trolling. Most of MAGA knows that Trump lost fair and square. They just like dishing it out to the Dems. Losing isn't a problem for them. And until losing hits them in the pocket book or Trump has left this mortal coil, the GOP will be held hostage by the death cult.

That being said, the rest of these jokers aren't serious people either. They all want to invade Mexico? W...t...f? Nikki is probably the most sane of them but I'm not a fan either.

[Bo Diddley]

I've tried to take a break from following politics this summer as I'm exasperated by the leading candidates for each party. I watched the debate and I think I'll check back out. My only thoughts are that the GOP is held hostage by a death cult. Winning elections doesn't matter, it's all about trolling. Most of MAGA knows that Trump lost fair and square. They just like dishing it out to the Dems. Losing isn't a problem for them. And until losing hits them in the pocket book or Trump has left this mortal coil, the GOP will be held hostage by the death cult.

That being said, the rest of these jokers aren't serious people either. They all want to invade Mexico? W...t...f? Nikki is probably the most sane of them but I'm not a fan either.

Well said.

[beefytee]

I've been a fan of Haley's. I think she would be, at least, a good president. She is my top choice of all candidates.

Some people are unhappy with somethings she has said or that she was in the Trump presidency, but I think she showed that she can handle delicate/complex situations, is quite the talented diplomat, and was one of the few bright spots of the Trump presidency.

And having been Governor of South Carolina and ambassador to the UN, she is more than qualified.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Hahahahaha...

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This is kind funny too:

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[MartyFunkhouser]

Also, there is some back lash now against Oliver Anthony because he had the nerve to talk about diversity being a strength.
https://www.newsweek.com/oliver-anth...erview-1821786

Also, that song really really sucks and it has nothing to do with the lyrics.