Why Mormons Leave

[myboynoah]

In my day, you could have gone "all the way" the week before you reported to the MTC, repented to Branch President Hunter, maybe have to visit with the MTC President and that was about it. I think half of the purpose of the MTC was to guilt you into confessions.

Not at all the case when I went. All the way meant being exed and sent home.

[Viking]

Not at all the case when I went. All the way meant being exed and sent home.

My MTC comp confessed exactly as I described. He cried a bunch. Was scared he was going to get sent home. He stayed.

Jenny B, my girlfriend in HS, wore a really low cut dress to my farewell. It was too much to handle for me, though luckily I shipped out the next day. I did consider refilling the canteen the night before but there were too many family members around to leave the safety of the Viking home.

[ERCougar]

Three of my fellow zone leaders were former drug dealers, and two of my fellow APs had live-in relationships before their missions. Not only are those types often firm believers afterward, they also often make better teachers.

Sure, there are examples, but as a rule, do you think that's true? Maybe we all have stories because the turnarounds are so remarkable and memorable.

I don't know what the right answer on this is. Sure, missionaries with psychological issues, health issues, or a "history" can be a real drain on their companions and mission presidents. I don't have the perspective to make the decision if they're a net benefit or weight.

[woot]

Sure, there are examples, but as a rule, do you think that's true? Maybe we all have stories because the turnarounds are so remarkable and memorable.

I don't know what the right answer on this is. Sure, missionaries with psychological issues, health issues, or a "history" can be a real drain on their companions and mission presidents. I don't have the perspective to make the decision if they're a net benefit or weight.

I agree with you in that lazy, crazy, or apostate missionaries were an enormous problem. In my mission, they represented the majority of problems I had to deal with.

However, they were almost always the naive, sheltered types. I'm guessing this is related to those having a windy road getting there caring more about being there, but the sample size is obviously way too small to make any firm conclusions.

Basically, I could see "raising the bar" being a good thing in theory, but filtering out sinners seems like the wrong way to do it. Trying to filter out the lazy and crazy, or trying to figure out who is going to hit a wall and stop caring after a couple months, wouldn't work any better.

[Uncle Ted]

This is interesting mostly for the growth statistic cited:

http://www.religiondispatches.org/ar..._culture_%7c_/

This, indeed, is an interesting study. The official church stats for 2011 gives a count of over 6.1M members in the US and a growth rate of 30% between 1990 and 2008, about double of the general US population growth. However, this study estimates the church population is more like 4.4M adults (I assume the church stats included baptized children) and the growth rate on par with the general population growth. One would think given that mormons have large families and aggressive missionary efforts the church would be beating the general population growth rate.

[myboynoah]

This, indeed, is an interesting study. The official church stats for 2011 gives a count of over 6.1M members in the US and a growth rate of 30% between 1990 and 2008, about double of the general US population growth. However, this study estimates the church population is more like 4.4M adults (I assume the church stats included baptized children) and the growth rate on par with the general population growth. One would think given that mormons have large families and aggressive missionary efforts the church would be beating the general population growth rate.

Are you saying the one study is only counting adults (4.4 million)? I'm sure The Church includes all children in its membership numbers, not just those that are baptized. So if you figure one child per every two of the 4.4 million adults, then 6.1 million makes sense.

[UtahDan]

Are you saying the one study is only counting adults (4.4 million)? I'm sure The Church includes all children in its membership numbers, not just those that are baptized. So if you figure one child per every two of the 4.4 million adults, then 6.1 million makes sense.

Just listened to an interview of the guy who did the analysis. He says the population is an inverted pyramid age wise and that you can safely add about 1M children.

He also says that in every country that has a census the data show the church is over reporting anywhere from 20 to 70 percent. He believes worldwide membership is about half of the claimed 14M.

Lots of interesting little tidbits. Women now account for 60% of unmarried Mormons in Utah which is up from 52% in 1990. This means lots more women will marry non-members. The children of those unions are dramatically more likely to have no religious affiliation. Also of interest is that there is a strong correlation between education and retention/activity. Also pointed out the the raising the bar that reduced missionariea about 10k coicided neatly with numbers of men turning 19 coming way down that year. Worth a listen. It was a MoSto interview. Relatively new.

[Uncle Ted]

So unless one has been sexually active with several partners, then the bar is still low enough. How is this different from before? The one-year waiting period?

I recall our stake president talking about this memo in stake priesthood shortly coming out and strongly implied that if a young man doesn't get his eagle scout rank, Duty to God, and graduate from seminary then he may not make it over the bar. While he didn't say that it would disqualify a young man from going on a mission he implied that it would make it much more difficult. I don't know how he got this crap from this memo. To me it seemed to just make young men in the stake that didn't do all these things feel like failures and leave the church shortly after leaving home for college.

[jay santos]

Just listened to an interview of the guy who did the analysis. He says the population is an inverted pyramid age wise and that you can safely add about 1M children.

He also says that in every country that has a census the data show the church is over reporting anywhere from 20 to 70 percent. He believes worldwide membership is about half of the claimed 14M.

Lots of interesting little tidbits. Women now account for 60% of unmarried Mormons in Utah which is up from 52% in 1990. This means lots more women will marry non-members. The children of those unions are dramatically more likely to have no religious affiliation. Also of interest is that there is a strong correlation between education and retention/activity. Also pointed out the the raising the bar that reduced missionariea about 10k coicided neatly with numbers of men turning 19 coming way down that year. Worth a listen. It was a MoSto interview. Relatively new.

I listened, but not that closely and didn't pick up on everything.

How are they defining a member?

When you (or they) use the word "overreporting", what exactly does that mean?

The figure of 60% of unmarried Mormons in Utah, what does that mean? Do they mean "active" Mormons? I don't see how that imbalance could ever come about using the standard definition of member.

[Uncle Ted]

Just listened to an interview of the guy who did the analysis. He says the population is an inverted pyramid age wise and that you can safely add about 1M children.

He also says that in every country that has a census the data show the church is over reporting anywhere from 20 to 70 percent. He believes worldwide membership is about half of the claimed 14M.

Lots of interesting little tidbits. Women now account for 60% of unmarried Mormons in Utah which is up from 52% in 1990. This means lots more women will marry non-members. The children of those unions are dramatically more likely to have no religious affiliation. Also of interest is that there is a strong correlation between education and retention/activity. Also pointed out the the raising the bar that reduced missionariea about 10k coicided neatly with numbers of men turning 19 coming way down that year. Worth a listen. It was a MoSto interview. Relatively new.

Have a link?

[Indy Coug]

Given that there have been multiple dispensations over recorded history, either God hasn't figured things out yet or mankind sucks at the exercise of their agency.

[UtahDan]

I listened, but not that closely and didn't pick up on everything.

How are they defining a member?

When you (or they) use the word "overreporting", what exactly does that mean?

The figure of 60% of unmarried Mormons in Utah, what does that mean? Do they mean "active" Mormons? I don't see how that imbalance could ever come about using the standard definition of member.

Those are all good questions. I am just repeating their phrasing of things so I can't speak to how they reached their conclusions or what assumptions they made. The discussion below the podcast I am linking as well as the discussion below that Brooks article above are well worth reading and have some very good questions that get raised. In particular, Ryan Cragun who authored this report (which I am also linking here) participates and responds to some of those questions in the Mormon Stories link.

It sounds to me like a lot of work is yet to be done to sort out what all that data mean. I think Cragun acknowledged that much.

http://mormonstories.org/?p=2422

http://mormonstories.org/wp-content/...Cragun2008.pdf

[Omaha 680]

And at the time, I was the Priest Quorum President, and my dad was first counselor. I was the one that was supposed to stick.

You were Bishop and your dad was your first counselor in high school? That would have driven me away too.

[Moliere]

I recall our stake president talking about this memo in stake priesthood shortly coming out and strongly implied that if a young man doesn't get his eagle scout rank, Duty to God, and graduate from seminary then he may not make it over the bar. While he didn't say that it would disqualify a young man from going on a mission he implied that it would make it much more difficult. I don't know how he got this crap from this memo. To me it seemed to just make young men in the stake that didn't do all these things feel like failures and leave the church shortly after leaving home for college.

Or "raising the bar" was a marketing tactic designed to explain the sudden (and expected) dropoff in full-time missionaries and some local leaders took it as an excuse to push their agendas.

[UtahDan]

I listened, but not that closely and didn't pick up on everything.

How are they defining a member?

When you (or they) use the word "overreporting", what exactly does that mean?

The figure of 60% of unmarried Mormons in Utah, what does that mean? Do they mean "active" Mormons? I don't see how that imbalance could ever come about using the standard definition of member.

As I think back over to what I listened to, I think I can take a stab at those.

They are defining a member as someone who self reports as being a member as opposed to someone who is on the roles. They said the general tendency across all religions is for people to over report or over identify. That is, there is a decent portion of that group who self identify or say they go to church who never set foot in a chapel.

So when they say over reporting they are talking about the discrepancy between the numbers the church uses (every one who is on the roles and younger than 110 years old and not known to be dead) and the number of people who say they are Mormon.

As far as the 60%, if memory serves they are saying that there are roughly 2/3rds as many single men aged 18-30 in Utah who self report as being Mormon as there are women who self report as being Mormon in the same age group. I'm not sure what you mean when you say "standard definition of member" but I do seem to recall Cragun saying that in his field the standard definition is self identification.

This is all from memory. Like I say, I don't know that he is right. But I think that is approximately what he said.