Why Mormons Leave

[FMCoug]

My guess is the fallout from a radical adjustment like this would be more "marginalized" or "disaffected" members screaming about this as proof about the church's retrenchment and lack of outreach than "true blue Mormons" gasping really loudly.

This.

Speaking of cognitive dissonance, the first group needs to figure out which of these they think are true.

"TBM's are dumb sheep who believe their leaders are infallible and will do anything the leaders want, no questions asked."

"TBM's are so fragile that finding out the truth about history, membership numbers, etc. will cause them to leave."

[UtahDan]

I think people are getting hung up on the word shocked. Everyone agrees that people would be surprised by that right? It doesn't line up nicely with the idea that the rock cut out of the mountain without hands is in the process of filling up the whole earth.

[Omaha 680]

Describe the person that would be shocked by this. The 25% of LDS members. age? RM? education level? convert or BIC?

I'm trying to think of anyone that would be "shocked" by such a revelation. Even the most ridiculous caricatures, I think would be fine.

Any RM would understand the nature of convert baptisms and how so many go inactive. Anyone outside of Utah would understand the nature of having a ward list of a bunch of people that don't even consider themselves Mormon. Anyone with any sort of education or paying attention remotely would understand there's quite a large retention problem in other countries.

Anyone who has ever looked at a ward roster and paid marginal attention to who attends church regularly with them realizes the 14 million number contains a large number of people who have fallen away. Who doesn't get that activity/retention rates are low?

[TripletDaddy]

I think people are getting hung up on the word shocked. Everyone agrees that people would be surprised by that right? It doesn't line up nicely with the idea that the rock cut out of the mountain without hands is in the process of filling up the whole earth.

why not?

In 150 years, the Church has covered most of the globe and has millions of members. What part of that is not "filling up the whole earth?"

[Indy Coug]

You be the judge if the church is filling the earth or not:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...18297008973312

[Portland Ute]

Describe the person that would be shocked by this. The 25% of LDS members. age? RM? education level? convert or BIC?

I'm trying to think of anyone that would be "shocked" by such a revelation. Even the most ridiculous caricatures, I think would be fine.

Any RM would understand the nature of convert baptisms and how so many go inactive. Anyone outside of Utah would understand the nature of having a ward list of a bunch of people that don't even consider themselves Mormon. Anyone with any sort of education or paying attention remotely would understand there's quite a large retention problem in other countries.

I agree with you, jay.

I don't think many would be shocked. I think, however, the revisions/news would be a bit of a downer for the church membership in general.

[Portland Ute]

why not?

In 150 years, the Church has covered most of the globe and has millions of members. What part of that is not "filling up the whole earth?"

[NorthwestUteFan]

Describe the person that would be shocked by this. The 25% of LDS members. age? RM? education level? convert or BIC?

I'm trying to think of anyone that would be "shocked" by such a revelation. Even the most ridiculous caricatures, I think would be fine.

Any RM would understand the nature of convert baptisms and how so many go inactive. Anyone outside of Utah would understand the nature of having a ward list of a bunch of people that don't even consider themselves Mormon. Anyone with any sort of education or paying attention remotely would understand there's quite a large retention problem in other countries.

Fair enough. I was thinking of your 'Type 1' Chapel Mormon (the type you claimed the church desires), when the truth is most people take a more nuanced view than that.

For example I think of my own grandmother (and a number of members of my own wards over the past 40 years): BIC, lifelong active member of the church and Daughters of the Utah Pioneers,probably never held a high leadership position at the ward or stake level, believes the universe behaves strictly in the manner Joseph Smith taught, believes her bishop receives daily revelations for her ward, and believes that 'every person will eventually join the church'. This type of person would have a difficult time seeing the 'official' numbers suddenly drop.

As several have said, most people can draw a distinction between the 'claimed' numbers and the 'actual' numbers by looking at the rolls of their own wards.

Another interesting point made in the podcast was the rate of church activity INCREASES with the education level. This is inversely opposed to the claims of some ExMo's who believe the smarter a person is, the more likely that person will 'see the truth' and leave the church.

[Indy Coug]

It may be instructive to view the average annual growth rate (10 year moving average) from 1860-to-date.

[jay santos]

This.

Speaking of cognitive dissonance, the first group needs to figure out which of these they think are true.

"TBM's are dumb sheep who believe their leaders are infallible and will do anything the leaders want, no questions asked."

"TBM's are so fragile that finding out the truth about history, membership numbers, etc. will cause them to leave."

Neither?

They probably think of TBM's the same way you think of believing Jehovah's Witness. How would you characterize a JW's faith? Can you allow for them to have faith, while still maintaining respect for their intelligence level and general character? I bet you can. And I bet most apostate Mormons can do the same for you.

[UtahDan]

I'm sorry guys but if you are denying that the discourse within the church on this issue from top to bottom for at least the last 30 years has centered on explosive growth as a fulfillment of prophecy complete with projections of what the membership numbers would be over the next 50+ years then you are saying the sky is some color other than blue.

The gloss you are putting on it is fine, but it is a recent gloss. I'm not saying it causes the sky to fall within the church, but it is a shift. If you don't believe that would cause any concern, then explain why you think the church includes within it's membership numbers which it reports to the body of the church at general conference literally millions of people who have no meaningful connection to the church.

[jay santos]

Fair enough. I was thinking of your 'Type 1' Chapel Mormon (the type you claimed the church desires), when the truth is most people take a more nuanced view than that.

For example I think of my own grandmother (and a number of members of my own wards over the past 40 years): BIC, lifelong active member of the church and Daughters of the Utah Pioneers,probably never held a high leadership position at the ward or stake level, believes the universe behaves strictly in the manner Joseph Smith taught, believes her bishop receives daily revelations for her ward, and believes that 'every person will eventually join the church'. This type of person would have a difficult time seeing the 'official' numbers suddenly drop.

As several have said, most people can draw a distinction between the 'claimed' numbers and the 'actual' numbers by looking at the rolls of their own wards.

Another interesting point made in the podcast was the rate of church activity INCREASES with the education level. This is inversely opposed to the claims of some ExMo's who believe the smarter a person is, the more likely that person will 'see the truth' and leave the church.

Having numbers drop because you redefine a data collection methodology should shock or even mildly surprise or upset no one.

Now there's another issue related to church growth. Church growth has been grinding almost to a halt over the last 20 years. But that's evident within the current reporting system--no need to revise the member definition to illustrate it. I think that particular issue (slow church growth) is likely not that commonly understood and would be upsetting to many church members.

[Indy Coug]

I'm sorry guys but if you are denying that the discourse within the church on this issue from top to bottom for at least the last 30 years has centered on explosive growth as a fulfillment of prophecy complete with projections of what the membership numbers would be over the next 50+ years then you are saying the sky is some color other than blue.

The gloss you are putting on it is fine, but it is a recent gloss. I'm not saying it causes the sky to fall within the church, but it is a shift. If you don't believe that would cause any concern, then explain why you think the church includes within it's membership numbers which it reports to the body of the church at general conference literally millions of people who have no meaningful connection to the church.

You could also discuss the efforts of the church to have "managed growth" in many areas outside the US that otherwise would have a much higher baptism potential.

[jay santos]

It may be instructive to view the average annual growth rate (10 year moving average) from 1860-to-date.

That's an interesting chart. It would also be interesting to chart active LDS growth rates. I believe it would show the recent decline to be even more stark and that it would dip below world average growth rate.

[Indy Coug]

The commonly-accepted viewpoint on worldwide church membership is that by the end of the Millennium, essentially everyone on earth will be a member of the church. That's over 1,000 years from now.

Even if you take the roughly 1% per annum earth population growth rate and the roughly (pedestrian) 2% church rate and assumed these rates remained static going forward, this viewpoint would be validated in 700-800 years.