The Big East expansion groundswell thread

[BYUMizzou]

Dear God,

Please bless whoever is in charge at BYU and the Mormon Church (we know you couldn't be this stupid, dear lord) to not join the Big East.

In the name of the computer overlords who created us,

Amen

How many teams are participating in the great conference realignment merry-go-round of 2010-2012 are joining a new conference and taking a cut in revenue. I'm aware of exactly zero.

The documents from Boise last year indicated that the revenue for a FB only membership under the current BE contract was in the $3-4 M per year range. The estimates for the next BE TV contract is projected at $6-7 M per year for FB only members.

Most reasonable projections of BYU's TV revenue in year 1 of independence are north of $6M. For that reason alone, I don't think it happens.

[San Juan Sun]

Most reasonable projections of BYU's TV revenue in year 1 of independence are north of $6M. For that reason alone, I don't think it happens.

Got a link to a credible projection? I just don't see us selling that many Rhodes bake and serve rolls.

[YOhio]

Got a link to a credible projection? I just don't see us selling that many Rhodes bake and serve rolls.

I love those commercials. Rhodes dominates the US frozen rolls market and the only commercials I've ever seen are during BYU football games and General Conference.

[BYUMizzou]

Got a link to a credible projection? I just don't see us selling that many Rhodes bake and serve rolls.

Here's a breakdown of what college football games are currently worth to the networks in today's market. Feel free to poke holes in my projections: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=7415256

BaYoU came up with numbers that are similar to what I projected: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=7777892

[San Juan Sun]

Here's a breakdown of what college football games are currently worth to the networks in today's market. Feel free to poke holes in my projections: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=7415256

BaYoU came up with numbers that are similar to what I projected: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=7777892

LOL. Quoting your CB posts is not a legitimate source. At best it is informed speculation.

[BYUMizzou]

LOL. Quoting your CB posts is not a legitimate source. At best it is informed speculation.

The revenue numbers from my post are factually accurate as reported in many media sources. It's been reported hundreds if not thousands of times how much the PAC, SEC, and B12 contracts are for. It was just easier to link my post from last fall on CB than to re-type it out again to please you.

Right now, in today's market, the networks are paying between $3.5 M and $4.2 M for first tier football games. Projecting the made-for-ESPN BYU/TCU game at $2.0M is certainly reasonable.

Right now, in today's market, second tier football games are generating between $2 and $2.5M per game under the existing contracts. Most of these games end up on ESPN2 and ESPNU. Projecting 4 games for BYU at $1.2M is saying ESPN got a steal for these games. Same thing goes for the crap games that got put on ESPNU last year. putting them at $800K is extremely reasonable given what today's market is paying for football games.

Nobody knows for sure what the contract says. At least I did some research to try to come up with reasonable projections. What information do you have to say whether they're right or wrong? Do you have anything to contribute?

[Cougarmandias]

I might join your party if we can't ever schedule anything.

I'm joining the party. We can't ever schedule anything.

[San Juan Sun]

What information do you have to say whether they're right or wrong? Do you have anything to contribute?

Give me a minute to go through my old CB posts, and I'm sure I'll find some.

FWIW, I don't have a problem with your post. I just think it's a lot of guesswork and speculation, although I'm sure it's as good as the relatively uninformed public can come up with. You said it yourself, you haven't seen the contracts.

So when you post on multiple boards that the BigEast is a sure pay cut, based upon your speculation of what SEC/Big12/ACC teams earn, you have to pardon me if I point out that your dots don't come close to connecting.

[BYUMizzou]

Got a link to a credible projection?

You asked for a credible projection. I gave you one. It's as good as anyone can get without actually having seen the contract, which nobody outside of BYU, ESPN, and their legal teams have. If you wanted a copy of the contract, you should have so specified.

As I said in my post above, feel free to poke holes in any of my numbers.

[San Juan Sun]

You asked for a credible projection. I gave you one. It's as good as anyone can get without actually having seen the contract, which nobody outside of BYU, ESPN, and their legal teams have. If you wanted a copy of the contract, you should have so specified.

As I said in my post above, feel free to poke holes in any of my numbers.

You have a very high opinion of your posts. I'm glad you stand by your speculations. Clearly, "credible" has a more substantial meaning to me than you, but whatever. As far as holes go, I don't need to poke any. You said yourself that you guesstimated some SEC/ACC/Big12 numbers, and assumed those applied to BYU. And then you further assumed that the BigEast deal would be a pay cut for BYU, despite credible (i.e. published) reports that SDSU's AD thinks the financial package would be attractive to us. If you can't see those holes, I sincerely hope you don't make boats for a living.

[BYUMizzou]

You have a very high opinion of your posts. I'm glad you stand by your speculations. Clearly, "credible" has a more substantial meaning to me than you, but whatever. As far as holes go, I don't need to poke any. You said yourself that you guesstimated some SEC/ACC/Big12 numbers, and assumed those applied to BYU. And then you further assumed that the BigEast deal would be a pay cut for BYU, despite credible (i.e. published) reports that SDSU's AD thinks the financial package would be attractive to us. If you can't see those holes, I sincerely hope you don't make boats for a living.

The only thing I made educated guesses about was how the money in the SEC and PAC was allocated between FB and BB. If anything, my numbers are low. The B12 numbers for football are based on their old first tier $480M/8 year contract contract. ESPN reported 13 days ago that the new first tier contract for the B12 is $2.6B over 13 years, which more than triples the first-tier per game price being paid under the contract. http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_...ergo-makeovers

Also, you're dead wrong in saying I applied SEC/B12/PAC numbers to BYU. Did you not even bother to read the posts you're complaining about? I took the big boy conference numbers and pared them down to between 30% to 50% of what the SEC/B12/PAC is getting per game.

Again, got anything of substance to add, or are you all hat and no cattle?

[San Juan Sun]

The only thing I made educated guesses about was how the money in the SEC and PAC was allocated between FB and BB. If anything, my numbers are low. The B12 numbers for football are based on their old first tier $480M/8 year contract contract. ESPN reported 13 days ago that the new first tier contract for the B12 is $2.6B over 13 years, which more than triples the first-tier per game price being paid under the contract. http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_...ergo-makeovers

Also, you're dead wrong in saying I applied SEC/B12/PAC numbers to BYU. Did you not even bother to read the posts you're complaining about? I took the big boy conference numbers and pared them down to between 30% to 50% of what the SEC/B12/PAC is getting per game.

Again, got anything of substance to add or are you all hat and no cattle?

More guesswork. Your whole premise is built upon assumptions. "Well if A is true, and B is true, and C is probably true, and I take 30% off of D....." You get the point.

It makes for a good CB post (I seriously mean that, good effort) but at the end of the day, you have no credible source that says BYU takes a pay cut going to the BigEast. That's really the crux of the issue. Obviously the money must be good enough for BYU to think about moving, considering that BYU and the BigEast were talking last fall.

[BYUMizzou]

Here's a breakdown of what college football games are currently worth to the networks in today's market. Feel free to poke holes in my projections: http://www.cougarboard.com/board/mes...tml?id=7415256
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You asked for a credible projection. I gave you one. It's as good as anyone can get without actually having seen the contract, which nobody outside of BYU, ESPN, and their legal teams have. If you wanted a copy of the contract, you should have so specified.

As I said in my post above, feel free to poke holes in any of my numbers.

The only thing I made educated guesses about was how the money in the SEC and PAC was allocated between FB and BB. If anything, my numbers are low. The B12 numbers for football are based on their old first tier $480M/8 year contract contract. ESPN reported 13 days ago that the new first tier contract for the B12 is $2.6B over 13 years, which more than triples the first-tier per game price being paid under the contract. http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_...ergo-makeovers

Also, you're dead wrong in saying I applied SEC/B12/PAC numbers to BYU. Did you not even bother to read the posts you're complaining about? I took the big boy conference numbers and pared them down to between 30% to 50% of what the SEC/B12/PAC is getting per game.

Again, got anything of substance to add, or are you all hat and no cattle?

I guess the answer to the question in hat.

More guesswork. Your whole premise is built upon assumptions. "Well if A is true, and B is true, and C is probably true, and I take 30% off of D....." You get the point.

It makes for a good CB post (I seriously mean that, good effort) but at the end of the day, you have no credible source that says BYU takes a pay cut going to the BigEast. That's really the crux of the issue. Obviously the money must be good enough for BYU to think about moving, considering that BYU and the BigEast were talking last fall.

If you paid attention to what TH said about the BE negotiations, the uncertainty with the future TV contract was what made BYU pull back.

[San Juan Sun]

Blah blah blah I have no credible evidence that BYU takes a pay cut by joining the BigEast blah blah blah

10-4 good buddy. Read you loud and clear.

[Jeff Lebowski]

SJS seems really grumpy lately.