The Utah 2011 Football Thread

[Mormon Red Death]

MRD, I don't understand your odds, especially at 8-4. Sure, two BCS teams is all but certain with Oregon's win, but what happens if Houston wins out, SEC #2 and Big 12 #2 get at-large bids, and they decide to go with, say, Boise or ACC #2 instead of Stanford as the 4th at-large? And Washington will get one more win. Would a Stanford snub and Washington win really eliminate all four of the listed bowls at 8-4?

If Stanford Doesnt go to the bcs the Alamo will take them

Well the bcs selections go like this:

Atlantic Coast Conference-Orange Bowl
Big Ten Conference-Rose Bowl
Big 12 Conference-Fiesta Bowl
Pac-12 Conference-Rose Bowl
Southeastern Conference-Sugar Bowl

If a bowl loses one for NCG they pick first then the order goes like this:
January 2012 games: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange

Lets say LSU and OK St win out.
NCG LSU v OK St
Rose : Pac12 v B1G
Sugar selects Bama
Fiesta selects either Stanford, Kstate, B1G#2 (if eligible) or Oklahoma (2 losses now)
Fiesta Selects Stanford, Kstate, B1G#2 (if eligible no B1G teams are in the top 14 but the champ will be) or Oklahoma
Sugar Selects has to chose between Big East & TCU/Houston (If houston loses and TCU finishes in the top 16 (19th right now) or if neither available other at large.
Orange gets what left.

[DrumNFeather]

Looking at the bowl situation with Washington's loss to Oregon St...does it help the Utes at all?

If you figure that an Oregon loss to SC would mean one P 12 team in a BCS bowl, and then you'd have some combo of Oregon/Stanford, ASU, UCLA, Washington, and Utah vying for some of those other bowl games, does it still leave Utah with much of a shot at the Holiday or Sun?

[UtahJazzFan88]

Looking at the bowl situation with Washington's loss to Oregon St...does it help the Utes at all?

If you figure that an Oregon loss to SC would mean one P 12 team in a BCS bowl, and then you'd have some combo of Oregon/Stanford, ASU, UCLA, Washington, and Utah vying for some of those other bowl games, does it still leave Utah with much of a shot at the Holiday or Sun?

Absolutely, if the Utes win against Colorado, there's no reason we're not in the Sun Bowl at least. 1320 KFAN interviewed a Holiday Bowl interviewed the Holiday Bowl director the other day, and they said that record matters, but if Utah/Washington had the same conference record, they would prefer Utah if they had to chose between the two.

With USC beating Oregon by 2 TD's right now, their chances of the Holiday Bowl are looking smaller though.

[woot]

Looking at the bowl situation with Washington's loss to Oregon St...does it help the Utes at all?

If you figure that an Oregon loss to SC would mean one P 12 team in a BCS bowl, and then you'd have some combo of Oregon/Stanford, ASU, UCLA, Washington, and Utah vying for some of those other bowl games, does it still leave Utah with much of a shot at the Holiday or Sun?

Unless Stanford loses to ND, I would bet there are still two BCS bids for the Pac, but it could be close.

[DrumNFeather]

Absolutely, if the Utes win against Colorado, there's no reason we're not in the Sun Bowl at least. 1320 KFAN interviewed a Holiday Bowl interviewed the Holiday Bowl director the other day, and they said that record matters, but if Utah/Washington had the same conference record, they would prefer Utah if they had to chose between the two.

With USC beating Oregon by 2 TD's right now, their chances of the Holiday Bowl are looking smaller though.

That's kind of what I figured. We need Oregon to rally.

[UtahJazzFan88]

That's kind of what I figured. We need Oregon to rally.

After thinking about it, if Oregon loses, I don't think it's that big of a deal. Oregon still would be in a BCS game with a loss, because they own the tiebreaker over Stanford even with 1 loss into the PAC-12 Championship Game, and assuming they win, they're in a BCS game. If Stanford doesn't get an at-large, that's a different story.

[Mormon Red Death]

Looking at the bowl situation with Washington's loss to Oregon St...does it help the Utes at all?

If you figure that an Oregon loss to SC would mean one P 12 team in a BCS bowl, and then you'd have some combo of Oregon/Stanford, ASU, UCLA, Washington, and Utah vying for some of those other bowl games, does it still leave Utah with much of a shot at the Holiday or Sun?

I'm thinking if Utah beats Colo we have a decent shot at the alamo bowl (Assuming 2 bcs bids and Cal beats ASU)

[Portland Ute]

We need to update the bowl possibilities here.

[Cutty]

CBS Sports has Utah playing OU in the Alamo Bowl.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions?ttag=gen10_on_all_fb_na_txt_0001

[CardiacCoug]

So let me get this straight, Utah could still play in a BCS Bowl this season (if USC beats UCLA and Utah beats Colorado)?

Pretty crazy convergence of events required for a 5-4 team to play for the championship.

[Jarid in Cedar]

So let me get this straight, Utah could still play in a BCS Bowl this season (if USC beats UCLA and Utah beats Colorado)?

Pretty crazy convergence of events required for a 5-4 team to play for the championship.

Asu has to lose to cal as well

[UtahJazzFan88]

Am I the only cringing at the possibility of us playing Oklahoma? Match-up nightmare for us.

[Ute]

Remember the rule that requires teams with winning records to be selected before 6-6 teams. It looked inevitable that UW and ASU would both have winning records a month ago, but now it isn't as clear.

Cal and ASU are both at 6-5 and play each other. One will get to 7-5, and the other will end up at 6-6. (Obviously for the Pac-12 championship game we want Cal to win, but either way, one of these two teams must, by rule, be selected after us for bowls.)

WSU beating UW in Seattle looked silly a month ago, but now looks like a real possibility. UW just lost to a bad OSU team and WSU, though they lost, they played well and forced an overtime against a team with a lot of momentum.

But the real key is for the Pac-12 to end up with two BCS teams. That requires exactly two things, in my opinion. Oregon must beat Oregon State, and Stanford must beat Notre Dame. If that happens, then Oregon goes to the Pac-12 Championship game and Stanford ends the season with only 1 loss. Then, regardless of who wins the Pac-12 championship, Utah/ASU/UCLA/Oregon, that team gets the Rose-Bowl bid.

So, having said all that, here's the best case next week for the Utes:

Oregon wins
Stanford wins
Utah wins
Cal wins
USC wins

That puts Utah in the championship game, but it also puts Stanford in a BCS bowl, and it keeps UW, ASU, and UCLA all at 6-6. Only Oregon, Stanford, and Cal could be chosen before us. That means, by rule, the worst we could do would be the Holiday Bowl.

But even if this happens:

Oregon wins
Stanford wins
Utah loses
Cal loses
USC wins

Even if that happens, and ASU goes to the Championship Game, only Oregon, Stanford, and ASU could be picked in front of us, and the worst we would face would be the Holiday Bowl.

[SeattleUte]

Remember the rule that requires teams with winning records to be selected before 6-6 teams. It looked inevitable that UW and ASU would both have winning records a month ago, but now it isn't as clear.

Cal and ASU are both at 6-5 and play each other. One will get to 7-5, and the other will end up at 6-6. (Obviously for the Pac-12 championship game we want Cal to win, but either way, one of these two teams must, by rule, be selected after us for bowls.)

WSU beating UW in Seattle looked silly a month ago, but now looks like a real possibility. UW just lost to a bad OSU team and WSU, though they lost, they played well and forced an overtime against a team with a lot of momentum.

But the real key is for the Pac-12 to end up with two BCS teams. That requires exactly two things, in my opinion. Oregon must beat Oregon State, and Stanford must beat Notre Dame. If that happens, then Oregon goes to the Pac-12 Championship game and Stanford ends the season with only 1 loss. Then, regardless of who wins the Pac-12 championship, Utah/ASU/UCLA/Oregon, that team gets the Rose-Bowl bid.

So, having said all that, here's the best case next week for the Utes:

Oregon wins
Stanford wins
Utah wins
Cal wins
USC wins

That puts Utah in the championship game, but it also puts Stanford in a BCS bowl, and it keeps UW, ASU, and UCLA all at 6-6. Only Oregon, Stanford, and Cal could be chosen before us. That means, by rule, the worst we could do would be the Holiday Bowl.

But even if this happens:

Oregon wins
Stanford wins
Utah loses
Cal loses
USC wins

Even if that happens, and ASU goes to the Championship Game, only Oregon, Stanford, and ASU could be picked in front of us, and the worst we would face would be the Holiday Bowl.

Sweet. Thanks. The Pac 12 is like dying and going to heaven.

[Ute]

Sweet. Thanks. The Pac 12 is like dying and going to heaven.

I totally agree! There came a point in the season where it looked like the most likely outcome would be either the Sun Bowl or the Las Vegas Bowl, and I pointed out that before this year, the Las Vegas Bowl was the best we could hope for unless we ran the table and finished ahead of Boise State in the BCS rankings, which wasn't likely to happen very often. Other than the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls to finish our two amazing undefeated seasons, the Sun Bowl is the best bowl we've played in, so to play in the Sun Bowl in a season where our starting quarterback goes out and we have to put in a guy who only came over because his program shut down... well, that's pretty amazing, regardless of our record.

But now, we're staring at 8-4 and probably an over-under being the Holiday Bowl. Pretty amazing!